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VHSL-Reference Football - Playoff Odds by Season Record

At the start of the season there are 186 playoff spots available for 308 teams, theoretically that gives each team a 60.3% chance of making the playoffs.

If a team wins their first game their playoff chances increase 20% to 80.3%.
If a team loses their first game their playoff chances decrease 18% to 42.0%.

If a team wins their first and second games their playoff chances increase 13% more to 93.2%.
If a team loses their first and second games their playoff chances decrease 14% more to 28.3%.
If a team splits their first and second games their playoff chances are the same 61% as they were at the start of the season.

Parameter Record Total
Teams
Teams
That
Make
Playoffs
%
Teams
That
Make
Playoffs
Start of Season 0-0 308 186 60.3
After Game 1        
Win 1st game 1-0 305 245 80.3
Lose 1st game 0-1 305 128 42.0
Win 1st game by 30 points or more 1-0 110 102 92.7
Win 1st game by Shutout 1-0 56 47 83.9
Lose 1st game by Shutout 0-1 63 18 28.6
After Game 2        
Win 1st & 2nd games 2-0 191 178 93.2
Split 1st & 2nd games 1-1 232 142 61.2
Lose 1st & 2nd games 0-2 187 53 28.3
Score 100+ points in 1st 2 games   27 26 96.3
After Game 3        
Win first 3 games 3-0 131 129 98.5
Lose first 3 games 0-3 131 20 15.3
After Game 4        
Win first 4 games 4-0 100 100 100.0
Record 3-1 after 4 games 3-1 132 126 95.5
Record 1-3 after 4 games 1-3 146 51 34.9
Lose first 4 games 0-4 91 6 6.6
Make Play Offs Previous Year        
Make Play Offs Previous Year (2013-14) - 384 292 76.0

  Data from 2014 & 2015 seasons