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1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 1999 Division 2 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W
ACT
L
Proj
W
Proj
L
ACT
vs
Proj
Diff
State
Rating
PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W
YR+1
L
YR+1
Rate

YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 George Wythe(W) 8 4 11.01 0.99 -3.01 38.0 374 153 0.71 2 A C Hogoheegee  9  2   46.7 1
2 King William 9 3 11.23 0.77 -2.23 54.3 473 175 0.73 2 A A Northern Neck  12  2   61.4 3
3 Essex 6 3 8.01 0.99 -2.01 40.8 273 126 0.68 2 A A Northern Neck  6  4   35.7 0
4 Glenvar 5 4 6.73 2.27 -1.73 29.6 250 167 0.60 2 A C Three Rivers  7  3   37.2 2
5 Lancaster 6 3 7.69 1.31 -1.69 36.8 233 121 0.66 2 A A Northern Neck  6  4   32.0 0
6 Honaker 11 2 12.23 0.77 -1.23 41.5 524 188 0.74 2 A D Black Diamond  13  1   48.1 2
7 Patrick Henry(GS) 7 4 8.11 2.89 -1.11 36.9 277 189 0.59 2 A C Hogoheegee  6  4   30.5 -1
8 Windsor 5 2 6.09 0.91 -1.09 47.0 198 98 0.67 2 A A Tri-Rivers  2  6   10.2 -3
9 Radford 7 2 7.93 1.07 -0.93 47.8 250 119 0.68 2 A C Three Rivers  8  4   46.7 1
10 Brentsville 5 4 5.76 3.24 -0.76 43.3 213 172 0.55 2 A B Bull Run  4  6   18.8 -1
11 Floyd County 12 2 12.75 1.25 -0.75 54.5 402 170 0.70 2 A C Three Rivers  4  6   19.2 -8
12 New Kent 12 1 12.65 0.35 -0.65 62.1 522 138 0.79 2 A A Tidewater  10  2   58.4 -2
13 Page 2 7 2.65 6.35 -0.65 16.6 144 199 0.42 2 A B Shenandoah  1  9   3.7 -1
14 Giles 6 2 6.61 1.39 -0.61 37.7 244 137 0.64 2 A C Three Rivers  10  3   44.1 4
15 Washington & Lee 3 4 3.44 3.56 -0.44 28.9 153 155 0.50 2 A A Northern Neck  7  4   46.8 4
16 Thomas Walker 2 3 2.43 2.57 -0.43 -7.6 91 93 0.49 2 A D Cumberland  0  5   -27.1 -2
17 Nandua 0 8 0.32 7.68 -0.32 5.2 106 342 0.24 2 A A Eastern Shore-AA  2  6   16.8 2
18 Clarke County 0 8 0.03 7.97 -0.03 7.3 40 326 0.11 2 A B Bull Run  0  9   -2.6 0
19 Chilhowie 7 3 7.03 2.97 -0.03 35.4 220 160 0.58 2 A C Hogoheegee  5  5   19.6 -2
20 Prince Edward 4 6 4.02 5.98 -0.02 22.4 260 301 0.46 2 A B James River  3  7   10.4 -1
21 Madison County * 10 3 9.82 3.18 0.18 65.3 404 266 0.60 2 A B Bull Run  7  5   41.6 -3
22 Northumberland 1 7 0.26 7.74 0.74 8.9 68 238 0.22 2 A A Northern Neck  5  5   32.0 4
23 Hurley 1 6 0.26 6.74 0.74 -10.9 91 304 0.23 2 A D Black Diamond  3  4   6.2 2
24 Auburn 2 8 1.14 8.86 0.86 2.4 120 256 0.32 2 A C Three Rivers  5  5   18.0 3
25 Grayson County 5 5 4.10 5.90 0.90 24.0 209 239 0.47 2 A C Mtn. Empire  6  4   23.3 1
26 Amelia County 4 5 3.10 5.90 0.90 13.9 179 227 0.44 2 A B James River  5  6   9.5 1
27 Fort Chiswell 2 6 0.71 7.29 1.29 7.7 109 258 0.30 2 A C Mtn. Empire  4  6   11.0 2
28 Wilson Memorial 2 8 0.63 9.37 1.37 12.1 101 274 0.27 2 A B Shenandoah  2  8   11.5 0
29 Buckingham County 5 6 3.60 7.40 1.40 22.4 262 342 0.43 2 A B James River  3  7   9.4 -2
30 John Battle 2 8 0.49 9.51 1.51 7.1 126 378 0.25 2 A C Hogoheegee  1  9   0.3 -1
31 Randolph-Henry 3 6 1.38 7.62 1.62 10.1 146 275 0.35 2 A B James River  4  6   8.1 1
32 James River(B) 4 6 2.10 7.90 1.90 17.9 174 284 0.38 2 A C Pioneer  1  9   -1.1 -3
33 Buffalo Gap 5 6 3.04 7.96 1.96 31.7 194 277 0.41 2 A B Shenandoah  8  5   43.8 3
34 Castlewood 5 5 2.67 7.33 2.33 12.9 157 228 0.41 2 A D Cumberland  5  5   12.9 0
35 Arcadia 4 5 1.60 7.40 2.40 27.3 161 284 0.36 2 A A Eastern Shore  6  5   32.0 2