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1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 1999 Division 3 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W		 ACT
L		 Proj
W		 Proj
L		 ACT
vs
Proj
Diff		 State
Rating		 PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W		 YR+1
L		 YR+1
Rate
YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 Stuarts Draft 4 6 6.58 3.42 -2.58 40.3 195 153 0.56 3 AA II Valley  1  9   30.5 -3
2 Bluestone 5 3 7.15 0.85 -2.15 40.2 253 115 0.69 3 AA I Southside  3  7   20.4 -2
3 Turner Ashby 6 4 8.08 1.92 -2.08 54.9 201 118 0.63 3 AA II Valley  12  2   79.2 6
4 Appomattox 7 3 8.94 1.06 -1.94 43.7 348 158 0.69 3 AA III Dogwood  4  6   24.6 -3
5 Lebanon 5 5 6.91 3.09 -1.91 32.7 175 130 0.57 3 AA IV Highlands  4  6   31.4 -1
6 Fluvanna 7 3 8.72 1.28 -1.72 53.5 346 170 0.67 3 AA II Jefferson  9  2   58.0 2
7 Gretna 8 3 9.66 1.34 -1.66 42.9 312 150 0.68 3 AA III Dogwood  6  4   31.4 -2
8 William Campbell 2 7 3.60 5.40 -1.60 11.0 198 230 0.46 3 AA III Dogwood  7  4   49.4 5
9 Park View(SH) 7 3 8.56 1.44 -1.56 43.4 203 105 0.66 3 AA I Southside  3  7   27.2 -4
10 Northampton 4 6 5.49 4.51 -1.49 39.7 256 238 0.52 3 AA I Eastern Shore  4  6   35.5 0
11 Virginia 4 4 5.30 2.70 -1.30 33.9 239 186 0.56 3 AA IV Highlands  1  7   12.3 -3
12 Handley 9 2 9.99 1.01 -0.99 79.8 339 145 0.70 3 AA II Northwestern  8  4   70.0 -1
13 Matoaca 4 5 4.92 4.08 -0.92 43.4 165 154 0.52 3 AA I Southside  7  4   65.1 3
14 Nottoway 7 3 7.89 2.11 -0.89 56.1 197 121 0.62 3 AA I Southside  8  3   59.5 1
15 Harrisonburg 10 2 10.79 1.21 -0.79 75.8 337 150 0.69 3 AA II Valley  7  3   71.3 -3
16 Graham 5 2 5.73 1.27 -0.73 64.2 185 106 0.64 3 AA IV Southwest  4  3   60.6 -1
17 Brookville * 11 3 11.71 2.29 -0.71 80.0 322 176 0.65 3 AA III Seminole  7  4   69.3 -4
18 Waynesboro 7 3 7.49 2.51 -0.49 56.1 282 188 0.60 3 AA II Valley  3  7   38.8 -4
19 Bassett 4 6 4.48 5.52 -0.48 31.8 289 312 0.48 3 AA IV Piedmont  1  9   13.0 -3
20 Fort Defiance 2 8 2.37 7.63 -0.37 29.4 157 242 0.39 3 AA II Valley  5  5   56.5 3
21 Bruton 5 5 5.28 4.72 -0.28 54.0 296 284 0.51 3 AA I Bay Rivers  7  4   63.3 2
22 Gate City 10 1 10.23 0.77 -0.23 69.6 277 106 0.72 3 AA IV Highlands  10  1   71.0 0
23 R.E. Lee(ST) 7 4 7.21 3.79 -0.21 56.6 170 134 0.56 3 AA II Valley  10  1   79.9 3
24 Altavista 0 9 0.20 8.80 -0.20 -8.7 117 472 0.20 3 AA III Dogwood  0  9   -5.4 0
25 Central(W) 0 10 0.13 9.87 -0.13 17.9 80 400 0.17 3 AA II Valley  5  5   56.8 5
26 Greensville 0 6 0.12 5.88 -0.12 17.7 47 199 0.19 3 AA I Southside  7  3   52.6 7
27 Brunswick 0 8 0.07 7.93 -0.07 17.5 42 236 0.15 3 AA I Southside  4  6   39.1 4
28 Poquoson 1 9 1.07 8.93 -0.07 22.5 169 371 0.31 3 AA I Bay Rivers  4  6   45.8 3
29 James Monroe 7 4 6.98 4.02 0.02 65.8 200 163 0.55 3 AA I Battlefield  0  10   17.9 -7
30 Liberty(Bed) 2 6 1.82 6.18 0.18 32.5 150 236 0.39 3 AA III Seminole  10  2   79.8 8
31 Christiansburg 1 9 0.78 9.22 0.22 27.9 122 305 0.29 3 AA III Blue Ridge  1  9   29.8 0
32 William Monroe 1 7 0.70 7.30 0.30 27.1 101 241 0.30 3 AA II Jefferson  4  6   34.3 3
33 Western Albemarle 1 8 0.47 8.53 0.53 21.6 101 296 0.25 3 AA II Jefferson  1  9   20.2 0
34 Southampton 11 2 10.41 2.59 0.59 69.3 462 276 0.63 3 AA I Bay Rivers  10  3   70.4 -1
35 Rustburg 6 5 5.24 5.76 0.76 57.0 197 204 0.49 3 AA III Seminole  12  2   81.6 6
36 Grundy 3 4 2.22 4.78 0.78 32.7 97 129 0.43 3 AA IV Southwest  10  2   62.8 7
37 Nelson County 4 6 3.07 6.93 0.93 21.5 202 273 0.43 3 AA III Dogwood  5  5   34.1 1
38 York 4 6 3.07 6.93 0.93 38.5 219 296 0.43 3 AA I Bay Rivers  5  5   47.6 1
39 Broadway 6 4 4.70 5.30 1.30 55.4 133 139 0.49 3 AA II Valley  4  6   46.9 -2
40 Chatham 2 8 0.45 9.55 1.55 12.7 116 361 0.24 3 AA III Dogwood  3  7   25.9 1
41 Tazewell 8 3 5.78 5.22 2.22 58.8 213 205 0.51 3 AA IV Southwest  6  5   48.2 -2
42 Alleghany 5 5 2.39 7.61 2.61 49.4 200 307 0.39 3 AA III Blue Ridge  5  5   47.5 0