VHSL-REFERENCE.COM   
1999  |   2000  |   2001  |   2002  |  2003  |   2004  |   2005  |   2006  |   2007  |   2008   |   2009   |   2010  |   2011  |   2012  |   2013   |   2014   |   2015  |   2016   |   2017  |   2018  |   2019  |  

Div1  |   Div2  |   Div3  |  Div4  |  Div5  |  Div6  

1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 1999 Division 4 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W
ACT
L
Proj
W
Proj
L
ACT
vs
Proj
Diff
State
Rating
PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W
YR+1
L
YR+1
Rate

YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 Northside 4 5 6.64 2.36 -2.64 57.0 192 131 0.59 4 AA III Blue Ridge  10  2   84.0 6
2 Carroll County 7 4 9.48 1.52 -2.48 46.4 284 144 0.66 4 AA IV Southwest  7  3   48.5 0
3 Magna Vista 5 6 7.15 3.85 -2.15 38.2 205 163 0.56 4 AA IV Piedmont  11  2   64.9 6
4 Heritage(Lyn) 2 7 3.12 5.88 -1.12 39.7 125 158 0.44 4 AA III Seminole  4  6   49.4 2
5 Lafayette 11 2 11.92 1.08 -0.92 77.4 451 185 0.71 4 AA I Bay Rivers  10  2   77.1 -1
6 Massaponax 4 6 4.89 5.11 -0.89 46.9 182 185 0.50 4 AA I Battlefield  2  8   33.8 -2
7 William Byrd 8 2 8.85 1.15 -0.85 73.2 326 153 0.68 4 AA III Blue Ridge  4  6   41.9 -4
8 Rockbridge County 3 7 3.79 6.21 -0.79 39.9 224 269 0.45 4 AA III Blue Ridge  3  7   37.4 0
9 Dan River 3 7 3.76 6.24 -0.76 23.0 286 345 0.45 4 AA IV Piedmont  7  3   45.6 4
10 Park View(St) 13 1 13.75 0.25 -0.75 92.4 573 129 0.82 4 AA II Dulles  12  2   92.2 -1
11 Loudoun Valley 2 5 2.74 4.26 -0.74 51.4 130 153 0.46 4 AA II Northwestern  4  4   66.0 2
12 Monticello 2 7 2.71 6.29 -0.71 27.9 131 179 0.42 4 AA II Jefferson  6  4   45.5 4
13 Orange 8 3 8.69 2.31 -0.69 65.8 330 202 0.62 4 AA II Jefferson  9  2   64.4 1
14 Caroline 5 5 5.64 4.36 -0.64 54.2 252 229 0.52 4 AA I Battlefield  6  4   61.5 1
15 Grafton 7 3 7.62 2.38 -0.62 58.1 294 191 0.61 4 AA I Bay Rivers  6  4   58.2 -1
16 Charlottesville 8 3 8.57 2.43 -0.57 67.5 367 230 0.61 4 AA II Jefferson  1  9   18.8 -7
17 Spotsylvania 9 3 9.50 2.50 -0.50 68.7 318 194 0.62 4 AA I Battlefield  5  5   57.3 -4
18 Jamestown 1 9 1.45 8.55 -0.45 25.9 187 361 0.34 4 AA I Bay Rivers  0  10   27.4 -1
19 Tunstall 10 1 10.42 0.58 -0.42 65.7 308 106 0.74 4 AA IV Piedmont  7  4   46.6 -3
20 Martinsville 11 2 11.41 1.59 -0.41 66.9 355 171 0.67 4 AA IV Piedmont  8  4   53.3 -3
21 Staunton River 3 7 3.33 6.67 -0.33 35.2 245 317 0.44 4 AA III Seminole  3  7   35.5 0
22 Liberty(Beal) 2 7 2.24 6.76 -0.24 53.1 150 226 0.40 4 AA II Northwestern  10  2   89.2 8
23 Loudoun County 6 3 6.07 2.93 -0.07 67.6 233 178 0.57 4 AA II Dulles  5  6   57.1 -1
24 Salem * 14 0 13.87 0.13 0.13 96.8 554 98 0.85 4 AA III Blue Ridge  10  4   87.0 -4
25 Amherst County 10 2 9.84 2.16 0.16 82.4 340 194 0.64 4 AA III Seminole  4  6   53.3 -6
26 Spotswood 6 4 5.83 4.17 0.17 54.9 180 159 0.53 4 AA II Valley  8  3   72.4 2
27 Louisa 4 5 3.83 5.17 0.17 37.6 161 180 0.47 4 AA II Jefferson  4  6   33.9 0
28 Tabb 5 5 4.76 5.24 0.24 45.5 196 203 0.49 4 AA I Bay Rivers  3  7   40.6 -2
29 Chancellor 2 7 1.74 7.26 0.26 40.9 123 209 0.37 4 AA I Battlefield  6  4   62.0 4
30 Jefferson Forest 7 4 6.66 4.34 0.34 66.3 231 197 0.54 4 AA III Seminole  2  8   42.0 -5
31 Powhatan 8 2 7.66 2.34 0.34 57.0 276 178 0.61 4 AA I Southside  5  5   40.6 -3
32 Warren County 3 6 2.56 6.44 0.44 57.0 120 169 0.42 4 AA II Northwestern  2  8   48.4 -1
33 Marion 4 6 3.43 6.57 0.57 31.8 147 187 0.44 4 AA IV Highlands  9  2   56.8 5
34 Lord Botetourt 7 3 6.40 3.60 0.60 61.3 277 224 0.55 4 AA III Blue Ridge  9  2   69.7 2
35 Abingdon 2 8 1.30 8.70 0.70 17.3 144 291 0.33 4 AA IV Highlands  4  6   28.6 2
36 King George 6 4 5.12 4.88 0.88 56.9 167 164 0.50 4 AA I Battlefield  9  2   70.8 3
37 Courtland 6 4 5.11 4.89 0.89 70.4 181 178 0.50 4 AA I Battlefield  11  2   81.5 5
38 Broad Run 1 8 0.03 8.97 0.97 37.0 39 334 0.10 4 AA II Dulles  5  5   61.0 4
39 Patrick County 4 6 2.71 7.29 1.29 30.1 174 251 0.41 4 AA IV Piedmont  5  5   34.8 1
40 Richlands 2 6 0.70 7.30 1.30 32.7 97 231 0.30 4 AA IV Southwest  5  3   46.7 3
41 Smithfield 6 4 4.40 5.60 1.60 53.6 191 209 0.48 4 AA I Bay Rivers  7  4   63.4 1
42 Lee 3 7 1.36 8.64 1.64 18.4 123 244 0.34 4 AA IV Highlands  2  7   18.8 -1
43 Blacksburg 4 6 1.91 8.09 2.09 50.7 140 239 0.37 4 AA III Blue Ridge  4  7   51.9 0