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1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 1999 Division 5 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W		 ACT
L		 Proj
W		 Proj
L		 ACT
vs
Proj
Diff		 State
Rating		 PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W		 YR+1
L		 YR+1
Rate
YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 West Potomac 6 5 9.50 1.50 -3.50 84.2 370 187 0.66 5 AAA Northern Patriot  9  4   93.4 3
2 Petersburg 4 6 7.17 2.83 -3.17 58.0 227 161 0.59 5 AAA Central Central  3  7   58.2 -1
3 E.C. Glass 6 5 8.86 2.14 -2.86 68.9 215 127 0.63 5 AAA Northwest Western  3  7   57.3 -3
4 George Wythe(R) 8 3 10.54 0.46 -2.54 80.9 307 96 0.76 5 AAA Central Dominion  1  9   37.8 -7
5 Norcom 6 4 8.48 1.52 -2.48 78.1 238 126 0.65 5 AAA Eastern Eastern  8  3   98.5 2
6 Langley 6 5 8.29 2.71 -2.29 78.4 230 152 0.60 5 AAA Northern Liberty  8  4   79.8 2
7 Thomas Edison 6 4 7.94 2.06 -1.94 60.0 298 181 0.62 5 AAA Northern National  9  2   87.3 3
8 George Marshall 5 5 6.68 3.32 -1.68 63.7 215 166 0.56 5 AAA Northern Liberty  2  8   38.3 -3
9 Henrico 12 2 13.53 0.47 -1.53 96.3 545 157 0.78 5 AAA Central Capital  6  4   74.7 -6
10 Hopewell 10 2 11.48 0.52 -1.48 84.2 369 117 0.76 5 AAA Central Central  8  4   81.8 -2
11 Albemarle 3 7 4.42 5.58 -1.42 47.0 200 218 0.48 5 AAA Northwest Western  6  5   62.1 3
12 Heritage(NN) 10 2 11.41 0.59 -1.41 105.9 436 146 0.75 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  14  0   118.2 4
13 Huguenot 8 3 9.30 1.70 -1.30 86.3 298 159 0.65 5 AAA Central Dominion  7  4   76.0 -1
14 Norview 7 4 8.26 2.74 -1.26 81.6 200 133 0.60 5 AAA Eastern Eastern  5  5   71.5 -2
15 J.E.B. Stuart 2 8 3.09 6.91 -1.09 40.9 181 244 0.43 5 AAA Northern National  1  9   37.2 -1
16 Hampton 12 1 12.99 0.01 -0.99 109.0 565 46 0.92 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  10  2   103.4 -2
17 Pulaski County 5 4 5.88 3.12 -0.88 71.7 267 211 0.56 5 AAA Northwest Roanoke Valley  10  2   93.0 5
18 Cave Spring 6 5 6.72 4.28 -0.72 68.8 254 215 0.54 5 AAA III Roanoke Valley  9  1   93.6 3
19 Yorktown 9 4 9.62 3.38 -0.62 80.4 383 260 0.60 5 AAA Northern National  5  5   62.7 -4
20 McLean 6 4 6.37 3.63 -0.37 77.9 224 182 0.55 5 AAA Northern Liberty  2  8   45.0 -4
21 South Lakes 8 4 8.33 3.67 -0.33 84.5 332 245 0.58 5 AAA Northern Concorde  3  7   56.3 -5
22 Western Branch 9 2 9.31 1.69 -0.31 92.9 286 152 0.65 5 AAA Eastern Southeastern  7  3   87.5 -2
23 James Wood 0 8 0.23 7.77 -0.23 41.2 77 285 0.21 5 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  2  8   48.0 2
24 Patrick Henry(R) 4 6 4.18 5.82 -0.18 58.9 185 209 0.47 5 AAA Northwest Roanoke Valley  9  2   87.9 5
25 R.E. Lee(S) 0 10 0.11 9.89 -0.11 39.8 73 393 0.16 5 AAA Northern Liberty  4  6   64.0 4
26 Woodrow Wilson 0 10 0.10 9.90 -0.10 40.2 45 243 0.16 5 AAA Eastern Eastern  1  9   55.7 1
27 Thomas Jefferson(R) 0 10 0.09 9.91 -0.09 24.4 64 370 0.15 5 AAA Central Colonial  0  10   26.6 0
28 Lakeland 2 8 2.03 7.97 -0.03 60.0 165 274 0.38 5 AAA Eastern Southeastern  4  6   68.6 2
29 Phoebus 8 2 7.99 2.01 0.01 100.9 242 145 0.63 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  7  3   87.8 -1
30 Sherando 1 7 0.88 7.12 0.12 52.5 148 321 0.32 5 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  4  7   62.6 3
31 Warwick 6 4 5.85 4.15 0.15 88.5 201 177 0.53 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  8  2   96.7 2
32 Oscar Smith 6 4 5.77 4.23 0.23 78.9 157 140 0.53 5 AAA Eastern Southeastern  5  5   77.0 -1
33 Dinwiddie 5 5 4.58 5.42 0.42 62.6 154 164 0.48 5 AAA Central Central  12  2   97.0 7
34 William Fleming 8 2 7.48 2.52 0.52 91.2 265 177 0.60 5 AAA III Roanoke Valley  3  6   57.6 -5
35 Osbourn 1 9 0.37 9.63 0.63 52.4 74 248 0.23 5 AAA Northwest Cardinal  0  10   40.1 -1
36 Halifax County 1 8 0.35 8.65 0.65 33.4 106 349 0.23 5 AAA Northwest Western  3  6   58.8 2
37 James Madison 1 9 0.35 9.65 0.65 53.6 77 264 0.23 5 AAA Northern Liberty  3  7   59.2 2
38 Indian River 1 9 0.26 9.74 0.74 45.6 76 290 0.21 5 AAA Eastern Southeastern  2  8   55.9 1
39 Churchland 4 6 3.22 6.78 0.78 68.0 161 212 0.43 5 AAA Eastern Eastern  5  5   74.1 1
40 Colonial Heights 1 9 0.16 9.84 0.84 36.6 66 303 0.18 5 AAA Central Central  4  6   60.5 3
41 Meadowbrook 1 9 0.09 9.91 0.91 36.3 51 288 0.15 5 AAA Central Central  2  8   50.6 1
42 John Marshall 1 9 0.04 9.96 0.96 39.9 50 373 0.12 5 AAA Central Colonial  2  8   39.8 1
43 Armstrong 1 8 0.01 8.99 0.99 46.8 34 380 0.08 5 AAA Central Capital  3  7   46.0 2
44 Midlothian 4 6 2.97 7.03 1.03 60.4 176 242 0.42 5 AAA Central Dominion  5  5   64.1 1
45 Booker T. Washington 3 7 1.78 8.22 1.22 65.3 114 201 0.36 5 AAA Eastern Eastern  2  8   61.4 -1
46 Culpeper County * 14 0 12.68 1.32 1.32 107.8 446 193 0.70 5 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  11  1   89.1 -3
47 Fauquier 5 5 3.57 6.43 1.43 70.0 172 214 0.45 5 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  5  5   66.7 0
48 Mount Vernon 3 7 1.53 8.47 1.47 53.0 156 294 0.35 5 AAA Northern National  7  4   78.2 4
49 Washington-Lee 2 8 0.49 9.51 1.51 42.0 116 348 0.25 5 AAA Northern National  1  9   37.0 -1
50 Falls Church 2 7 0.42 8.58 1.58 41.5 104 319 0.25 5 AAA Northern National  5  4   65.0 3
51 Denbigh 3 7 1.36 8.64 1.64 64.5 120 238 0.34 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  2  8   58.8 -1
52 Kecoughtan 3 7 1.33 8.67 1.67 72.8 116 232 0.33 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  4  6   75.1 1
53 Great Bridge 3 7 1.20 8.80 1.80 59.6 111 232 0.32 5 AAA Eastern Southeastern  5  5   77.3 2
54 Lake Taylor 5 5 3.09 6.91 1.91 66.0 144 194 0.43 5 AAA Eastern Eastern  9  2   98.7 4
55 Highland Springs 5 5 2.96 7.04 2.04 68.2 135 186 0.42 5 AAA Central Capital  5  5   68.0 0
56 Thomas Jefferson(A) 3 7 0.28 9.72 2.72 61.2 75 280 0.21 5 AAA Northern Concorde  3  7   59.8 0
57 Nansemond River 6 4 2.53 7.47 3.47 81.9 136 203 0.40 5 AAA Eastern Southeastern  0  10   45.3 -6