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1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 1999 Division 6 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W		 ACT
L		 Proj
W		 Proj
L		 ACT
vs
Proj
Diff		 State
Rating		 PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W		 YR+1
L		 YR+1
Rate
YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 Mills Godwin 5 4 7.81 1.19 -2.81 69.1 239 119 0.67 6 AAA Central Colonial  9  1   89.0 4
2 Chantilly 4 6 6.65 3.35 -2.65 77.7 169 131 0.56 6 AAA Northern Concorde  6  4   87.6 2
3 Brooke Point 7 3 9.52 0.48 -2.52 80.8 220 73 0.75 6 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  8  3   82.5 1
4 Maury 7 3 9.39 0.61 -2.39 80.4 218 79 0.73 6 AAA Eastern Eastern  6  4   83.1 -1
5 Osbourn Park 3 7 5.14 4.86 -2.14 56.7 150 147 0.51 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal  4  6   62.3 1
6 GW-Danville 7 3 9.05 0.95 -2.05 79.0 270 117 0.70 6 AAA Northwest Western  5  5   71.5 -2
7 Woodbridge 4 5 5.91 3.09 -1.91 77.4 192 151 0.56 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal  2  7   65.3 -2
8 Centreville 10 3 11.81 1.19 -1.81 104.0 311 133 0.70 6 AAA Northern Concorde  12  2   111.6 2
9 Herndon 6 4 7.64 2.36 -1.64 84.1 201 130 0.61 6 AAA Northern Concorde  7  3   89.3 1
10 Princess Anne 10 3 11.62 1.38 -1.62 102.3 306 139 0.69 6 AAA Eastern Beach  9  2   99.7 -1
11 Patrick Henry(A) 9 3 10.44 1.56 -1.44 81.2 356 176 0.67 6 AAA Central Colonial  9  1   88.6 0
12 Kempsville 5 5 6.25 3.75 -1.25 83.7 221 183 0.55 6 AAA Eastern Beach  4  6   73.4 -1
13 Lee-Davis 7 4 8.14 2.86 -1.14 82.7 190 129 0.60 6 AAA Central Capital  7  3   82.8 0
14 Kellam 4 6 5.03 4.97 -1.03 72.9 218 217 0.50 6 AAA Eastern Beach  5  5   77.4 1
15 Deep Creek 10 1 10.94 0.06 -0.94 97.5 365 53 0.87 6 AAA Eastern Southeastern  13  1   108.7 3
16 Gar-Field 8 3 8.81 2.19 -0.81 93.1 216 129 0.63 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal  7  3   85.7 -1
17 J.R. Tucker 5 5 5.74 4.26 -0.74 58.0 210 188 0.53 6 AAA Central Colonial  3  7   57.8 -2
18 West Springfield 3 7 3.71 6.29 -0.71 69.9 144 175 0.45 6 AAA Northern Patriot  4  6   81.9 1
19 Varina 13 1 13.70 0.30 -0.70 105.8 521 127 0.80 6 AAA Central Capital  11  2   96.0 -2
20 Douglas Freeman 6 4 6.65 3.35 -0.65 70.1 250 194 0.56 6 AAA Central Colonial  5  5   68.1 -1
21 Monacan 5 5 5.63 4.37 -0.63 70.7 180 164 0.52 6 AAA Central Dominion  6  5   76.0 1
22 Lake Braddock 11 1 11.61 0.39 -0.61 109.4 312 89 0.78 6 AAA Northern Patriot  7  4   96.3 -4
23 Hayfield 6 4 6.47 3.53 -0.47 82.2 239 191 0.56 6 AAA Northern Patriot  8  3   99.0 2
24 First Colonial 5 5 5.38 4.62 -0.38 79.5 202 191 0.51 6 AAA Eastern Beach  8  3   94.2 3
25 Atlee 3 6 3.37 5.63 -0.37 61.4 100 121 0.45 6 AAA Central Capital  4  5   65.0 1
26 Fairfax 9 1 9.33 0.67 -0.33 98.8 247 93 0.73 6 AAA Northern Liberty  5  5   70.5 -4
27 Annandale 6 4 6.24 3.76 -0.24 93.2 216 179 0.55 6 AAA Northern Patriot  3  7   73.1 -3
28 North Stafford 10 2 10.14 1.86 -0.14 94.2 394 210 0.65 6 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  5  5   68.0 -5
29 James River(C) 6 4 6.11 3.89 -0.11 80.6 215 182 0.54 6 AAA Central Dominion  9  2   94.4 3
30 Oakton 6 4 6.08 3.92 -0.08 92.8 219 186 0.54 6 AAA Northern Concorde  5  5   85.4 -1
31 Wakefield 3 5 3.02 4.98 -0.02 52.4 163 196 0.45 6 AAA Northern National  3  5   55.9 0
32 Hickory 3 7 2.93 7.07 0.07 68.0 101 140 0.42 6 AAA Eastern Southeastern  5  5   80.3 2
33 Prince George 5 5 4.90 5.10 0.10 61.9 140 142 0.50 6 AAA Central Central  5  5   71.5 0
34 L.C. Bird 10 1 9.80 1.20 0.20 94.5 326 150 0.68 6 AAA Central Dominion  10  2   91.6 0
35 Tallwood 1 9 0.67 9.33 0.33 55.2 119 315 0.27 6 AAA Eastern Beach  4  6   73.6 3
36 Frank Cox 6 4 5.46 4.54 0.54 89.3 271 253 0.52 6 AAA Eastern Beach  1  9   56.5 -5
37 W.T. Woodson 6 4 5.46 4.54 0.54 81.0 182 170 0.52 6 AAA Northern Liberty  5  5   71.0 -1
38 Granby 5 5 4.38 5.62 0.62 64.6 144 158 0.48 6 AAA Eastern Eastern  7  3   88.5 2
39 Bayside 11 1 10.32 1.68 0.68 108.5 364 186 0.66 6 AAA Eastern Beach  11  1   106.5 0
40 T.C. Williams 3 7 2.24 7.76 0.76 65.6 161 255 0.39 6 AAA Northern Patriot  3  7   70.7 0
41 Menchville 1 9 0.23 9.77 0.77 57.0 76 306 0.20 6 AAA Eastern Peninsula  1  9   53.9 0
42 Woodside 2 8 1.22 8.78 0.78 65.0 126 262 0.32 6 AAA Eastern Peninsula  0  10   47.3 -2
43 Potomac 5 4 3.95 5.05 1.05 81.0 125 137 0.48 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal  10  1   100.4 5
44 Ocean Lakes 7 4 5.89 5.11 1.11 90.4 212 201 0.51 6 AAA Eastern Beach  6  4   83.4 -1
45 C.D. Hylton * 14 0 12.84 1.16 1.16 114.6 361 148 0.71 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal  9  2   97.0 -5
46 Stafford 3 7 1.75 8.25 1.25 58.3 142 252 0.36 6 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  3  7   46.1 0
47 Thomas Dale 3 7 1.68 8.32 1.32 50.7 93 168 0.36 6 AAA Central Central  4  6   65.0 1
48 James Robinson 8 3 6.63 4.37 1.37 93.0 251 215 0.54 6 AAA Northern Patriot  11  1   112.0 3
49 Salem(VB) 2 8 0.60 9.40 1.40 61.4 79 219 0.27 6 AAA Eastern Beach  2  8   60.8 0
50 Hermitage 2 8 0.51 9.49 1.49 45.7 71 210 0.25 6 AAA Central Colonial  2  8   47.7 0
51 Green Run 3 7 1.45 8.55 1.55 68.7 139 268 0.34 6 AAA Eastern Beach  0  10   47.2 -3
52 Stonewall Jackson(M) 3 7 0.99 9.01 2.01 70.3 109 247 0.31 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal  3  7   57.9 0
53 Clover Hill 3 7 0.93 9.07 2.07 60.2 112 260 0.30 6 AAA Central Dominion  4  6   64.7 1
54 Franklin County 4 6 1.60 8.40 2.40 50.5 139 257 0.35 6 AAA Northwest Roanoke Valley  3  7   54.6 -1
55 Bethel 5 5 2.59 7.41 2.41 82.6 118 174 0.40 6 AAA Eastern Peninsula  4  6   71.8 -1
56 Manchester 5 5 2.38 7.62 2.62 68.3 152 234 0.39 6 AAA Central Dominion  3  7   55.8 -2
57 Gloucester 5 5 2.20 7.80 2.80 80.7 154 246 0.39 6 AAA Eastern Peninsula  5  5   77.7 0