VHSL-REFERENCE.COM   
1999  |   2000  |   2001  |   2002  |  2003  |   2004  |   2005  |   2006  |   2007  |   2008   |   2009   |   2010  |   2011  |   2012  |   2013   |   2014   |   2015  |   2016   |   2017  |   2018  |   2019  |  

Div1  |   Div2  |   Div3  |  Div4  |  Div5  |  Div6  

1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2000 Division 3 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W
ACT
L
Proj
W
Proj
L
ACT
vs
Proj
Diff
State
Rating
PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W
YR+1
L
YR+1
Rate

YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 Matoaca 7 4 9.73 1.27 -2.73 65.1 285 134 0.68 3 AA I Southside  10  1   62.6 3
2 Nottoway 8 3 10.29 0.71 -2.29 59.5 256 95 0.73 3 AA I Southside  5  5   36.7 -3
3 Alleghany 5 5 6.87 3.13 -1.87 47.5 308 230 0.57 3 AA III Blue Ridge  3  7   37.5 -2
4 Richlands 5 3 6.49 1.51 -1.49 46.7 206 120 0.63 3 AA IV Southwest  8  2   65.0 3
5 Turner Ashby 12 2 13.41 0.59 -1.41 79.2 387 122 0.76 3 AA II Valley  9  2   80.3 -3
6 Southampton 10 3 11.30 1.70 -1.30 70.4 349 173 0.67 3 AA I Bay Rivers  8  2   78.7 -2
7 Monticello 6 4 7.27 2.73 -1.27 45.5 240 167 0.59 3 AA II Jefferson  3  6   29.2 -3
8 Rustburg * 12 2 13.25 0.75 -1.25 81.6 333 115 0.74 3 AA III Seminole  6  5   52.1 -6
9 William Campbell 7 4 8.22 2.78 -1.22 49.4 305 204 0.60 3 AA B Dogwood  9  3   47.7 2
10 Bruton 7 4 8.21 2.79 -1.21 63.3 310 208 0.60 3 AA I Bay Rivers  5  5   61.2 -2
11 Grundy 10 2 10.94 1.06 -0.94 62.8 408 172 0.70 3 AA IV Southwest  8  3   56.5 -2
12 Fluvanna 9 2 9.77 1.23 -0.77 58.0 392 182 0.68 3 AA II Jefferson  7  3   41.7 -2
13 Park View(SH) 3 7 3.70 6.30 -0.70 27.2 160 195 0.45 3 AA I Southside  1  7   7.9 -2
14 Prince Edward 3 7 3.66 6.34 -0.66 10.4 190 233 0.45 3 AA I Southside  5  5   27.5 2
15 Gate City 10 1 10.53 0.47 -0.53 71.0 308 97 0.76 3 AA D Lonesome Pine  10  3   56.5 0
16 Greensville 7 3 7.42 2.58 -0.42 52.6 238 161 0.60 3 AA I Southside  6  4   38.4 -1
17 R.E. Lee(ST) 10 1 10.39 0.61 -0.39 79.9 357 125 0.74 3 AA II Valley  7  4   62.2 -3
18 James Monroe 0 10 0.20 9.80 -0.20 17.9 84 354 0.19 3 AA I Battlefield  4  6   30.7 4
19 Brunswick 4 6 4.14 5.86 -0.14 39.1 181 206 0.47 3 AA I Southside  4  6   32.2 0
20 York 5 5 5.03 4.97 -0.03 47.6 247 246 0.50 3 AA I Bay Rivers  6  4   66.4 1
21 Tazewell 6 5 5.99 5.01 0.01 48.2 202 189 0.52 3 AA IV Southwest  3  7   36.3 -3
22 Brookville 7 4 6.84 4.16 0.16 69.3 232 193 0.55 3 AA III Seminole  8  3   62.6 1
23 Appomattox 4 6 3.74 6.26 0.26 24.6 143 173 0.45 3 AA III Seminole  5  5   42.7 1
24 Liberty(Bed) 10 2 9.71 2.29 0.29 79.8 280 164 0.63 3 AA III Seminole  10  3   68.9 0
25 Poquoson 4 6 3.58 6.42 0.42 45.8 149 185 0.45 3 AA I Bay Rivers  10  3   79.9 6
26 Christiansburg 1 9 0.36 9.64 0.64 29.8 99 336 0.23 3 AA III River Ridge  1  9   29.5 0
27 Stuarts Draft 1 9 0.33 9.67 0.67 30.5 73 256 0.22 3 AA II Valley  2  8   36.0 1
28 Western Albemarle 1 9 0.32 9.68 0.68 20.2 102 362 0.22 3 AA II Jefferson  2  8   23.2 1
29 Fort Defiance 5 5 4.31 5.69 0.69 56.5 165 183 0.47 3 AA II Valley  9  3   73.6 4
30 Patrick County 5 5 4.28 5.72 0.72 34.8 212 236 0.47 3 AA IV Piedmont  3  7   24.3 -2
31 William Monroe 4 6 3.04 6.96 0.96 34.3 156 212 0.42 3 AA II Jefferson  2  8   22.4 -2
32 Graham 4 3 2.96 4.04 1.04 60.6 122 137 0.47 3 AA IV Southwest  9  2   74.5 5
33 Nandua 2 6 0.43 7.57 1.57 16.8 80 231 0.26 3 AA I Eastern Shore-AA  5  4   36.3 3
34 Handley 8 4 6.32 5.68 1.68 70.0 208 200 0.51 3 AA II Northwestern  6  4   60.3 -2
35 Waynesboro 3 7 0.99 9.01 2.01 38.8 104 236 0.31 3 AA II Valley  1  9   29.4 -2
36 Bluestone 3 7 0.58 9.42 2.42 20.4 132 370 0.26 3 AA I Southside  2  8   13.6 -1
37 Central(W) 5 5 2.21 7.79 2.79 56.8 121 193 0.39 3 AA II Northwestern  3  7   19.8 -2