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1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2000 Division 5 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W		 ACT
L		 Proj
W		 Proj
L		 ACT
vs
Proj
Diff		 State
Rating		 PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W		 YR+1
L		 YR+1
Rate
YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 J.R. Tucker 3 7 6.22 3.78 -3.22 57.8 231 192 0.55 5 AAA Central Colonial  3  6   55.8 0
2 Henrico 6 4 8.19 1.81 -2.19 74.7 287 164 0.64 5 AAA Central Capital  3  6   55.7 -3
3 Hampton 10 2 11.53 0.47 -1.53 103.4 350 107 0.77 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  10  2   102.3 0
4 Lee-Davis 7 3 8.49 1.51 -1.49 82.8 313 165 0.65 5 AAA Central Capital  5  4   70.1 -2
5 Langley 8 4 9.49 2.51 -1.49 79.8 296 181 0.62 5 AAA Northern Liberty  4  5   71.2 -4
6 Petersburg 3 7 4.36 5.64 -1.36 58.2 151 166 0.48 5 AAA Central Central  6  5   63.9 3
7 Norcom 8 3 9.36 1.64 -1.36 98.5 280 147 0.66 5 AAA Eastern Eastern  5  5   77.8 -3
8 Warwick 8 2 9.35 0.65 -1.35 96.7 308 115 0.73 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  7  4   88.4 -1
9 Thomas Edison 9 2 10.20 0.80 -1.20 87.3 316 123 0.72 5 AAA Northern National  7  3   77.6 -2
10 Hopewell 8 4 9.17 2.83 -1.17 81.8 275 178 0.61 5 AAA Central Central  5  4   68.1 -3
11 West Potomac 9 4 10.09 2.91 -1.09 93.4 339 214 0.61 5 AAA Northern Patriot  5  4   87.4 -4
12 Phoebus 7 3 7.99 2.01 -0.99 87.8 267 160 0.63 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  13  1   108.2 6
13 Huguenot 7 4 7.97 3.03 -0.97 76.0 322 225 0.59 5 AAA Central Dominion  3  6   63.9 -4
14 Pulaski County 10 2 10.88 1.12 -0.88 93.0 438 189 0.70 5 AAA Northwest Roanoke Valley  12  2   82.8 2
15 North Stafford 5 5 5.86 4.14 -0.86 68.0 216 190 0.53 5 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  6  4   70.2 1
16 Culpeper County 11 1 11.83 0.17 -0.83 89.1 367 76 0.83 5 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  8  2   86.1 -3
17 Great Bridge 5 5 5.50 4.50 -0.50 77.3 180 167 0.52 5 AAA Eastern Southeastern  6  4   80.4 1
18 Stone Bridge 3 7 3.50 6.50 -0.50 49.8 253 318 0.44 5 AAA Northern Northwestern  6  3   62.5 3
19 Lake Taylor 9 2 9.47 1.53 -0.47 98.7 287 146 0.66 5 AAA Eastern Eastern  5  5   68.1 -4
20 George Wythe(R) 1 9 1.46 8.54 -0.46 37.8 134 258 0.34 5 AAA Central Dominion  1  8   42.3 0
21 Maury 6 4 6.45 3.55 -0.45 83.1 191 153 0.56 5 AAA Eastern Eastern  2  8   54.3 -4
22 Nansemond River 0 10 0.44 9.56 -0.44 45.3 93 291 0.24 5 AAA Eastern Southeastern  3  7   58.9 3
23 Patrick Henry(A) 9 1 9.41 0.59 -0.41 88.6 312 112 0.74 5 AAA Central Colonial  12  1   92.5 3
24 J.E.B. Stuart 1 9 1.36 8.64 -0.36 37.2 144 286 0.33 5 AAA Northern National  0  9   33.6 -1
25 Stafford 3 7 3.34 6.66 -0.34 46.1 168 217 0.44 5 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  4  5   51.1 1
26 Cave Spring 9 1 9.33 0.67 -0.33 93.6 265 100 0.73 5 AAA Northwest Roanoke Valley  8  3   74.7 -1
27 Green Run 0 10 0.24 9.76 -0.24 47.2 97 383 0.20 5 AAA Eastern Beach  0  10   47.1 0
28 Booker T. Washington 2 8 2.23 7.77 -0.23 61.4 129 205 0.39 5 AAA Eastern Eastern  6  4   77.4 4
29 Fauquier 5 5 5.21 4.79 -0.21 66.7 226 219 0.51 5 AAA Northwest Cedar Run  4  5   60.6 -1
30 Albemarle 6 5 6.19 4.81 -0.19 62.1 236 215 0.52 5 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  4  6   41.7 -2
31 Woodside 0 10 0.14 9.86 -0.14 47.3 63 301 0.17 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  4  6   69.6 4
32 William Fleming 3 6 3.14 5.86 -0.14 57.6 123 155 0.44 5 AAA III Roanoke Valley  5  5   60.5 2
33 Thomas Jefferson(R) 0 10 0.10 9.90 -0.10 26.6 88 475 0.16 5 AAA Central Colonial  0  9   21.3 0
34 Massaponax 2 8 2.03 7.97 -0.03 33.8 162 269 0.38 5 AAA Northwest Battlefield  5  4   56.1 3
35 Yorktown 5 5 5.00 5.00 0.00 62.7 200 200 0.50 5 AAA Northern National  7  3   77.6 2
36 Heritage(NN) * 14 0 13.92 0.08 0.08 118.2 584 86 0.87 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  6  4   83.1 -8
37 Monacan 6 5 5.78 5.22 0.22 76.0 216 208 0.51 5 AAA Central Dominion  6  3   79.9 0
38 McLean 2 8 1.76 8.24 0.24 45.0 148 262 0.36 5 AAA Northern Liberty  5  4   66.4 3
39 Churchland 5 5 4.76 5.24 0.24 74.1 190 197 0.49 5 AAA Eastern Eastern  2  8   53.7 -3
40 Mount Vernon 7 4 6.54 4.46 0.46 78.2 220 191 0.54 5 AAA Northern National  7  5   77.6 0
41 South Lakes 3 7 2.49 7.51 0.51 56.3 172 259 0.40 5 AAA Northern Concorde  1  8   49.0 -2
42 Loudoun Valley 4 4 3.48 4.52 0.52 66.0 127 140 0.48 5 AAA Northern Northwestern  3  5   43.2 -1
43 Norview 5 5 4.47 5.53 0.53 71.5 146 158 0.48 5 AAA Eastern Eastern  7  4   87.9 2
44 Atlee 4 5 3.43 5.57 0.57 65.0 193 231 0.46 5 AAA Central Capital  4  4   66.6 0
45 Washington-Lee 1 9 0.41 9.59 0.59 37.0 94 302 0.24 5 AAA Northern National  2  7   49.3 1
46 James Madison 3 7 2.36 7.64 0.64 59.2 152 235 0.39 5 AAA Northern Liberty  8  3   81.2 5
47 George Marshall 2 8 1.21 8.79 0.79 38.3 108 225 0.32 5 AAA Northern Liberty  3  6   55.8 1
48 Dinwiddie 12 2 11.10 2.90 0.90 97.0 327 199 0.62 5 AAA Central Central  0  9   24.9 -12
49 Colonial Forge 2 8 1.06 8.94 0.94 39.3 136 300 0.31 5 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  1  8   32.8 -1
50 Woodrow Wilson 1 9 0.04 9.96 0.96 55.7 54 410 0.12 5 AAA Eastern Eastern  3  7   61.2 2
51 Halifax County 3 6 1.92 7.08 1.08 58.8 163 264 0.38 5 AAA Northwest Western Valley  3  6   40.8 0
52 Lakeland 4 6 2.74 7.26 1.26 68.6 115 165 0.41 5 AAA Eastern Southeastern  6  4   81.4 2
53 E.C. Glass 3 7 1.50 8.50 1.50 57.3 99 188 0.34 5 AAA Northwest Western Valley  4  5   51.1 1
54 Wakefield 3 5 1.42 6.58 1.58 55.9 103 182 0.36 5 AAA Northern National  3  6   55.2 0
55 Indian River 2 8 0.40 9.60 1.60 55.9 100 324 0.24 5 AAA Eastern Southeastern  0  10   43.7 -2
56 Denbigh 2 8 0.31 9.69 1.69 58.8 82 293 0.22 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  2  8   59.1 0
57 John Marshall 2 8 0.27 9.73 1.73 39.8 112 421 0.21 5 AAA Central Colonial  1  8   29.9 -1
58 Thomas Jefferson(A) 3 7 1.05 8.95 1.95 59.8 128 283 0.31 5 AAA Northern Concorde  4  5   60.3 1
59 Colonial Heights 4 6 1.82 8.18 2.18 60.5 158 276 0.36 5 AAA Central Central  3  6   48.8 -1
60 Patrick Henry(R) 9 2 6.79 4.21 2.21 87.9 265 222 0.54 5 AAA Northwest Roanoke Valley  2  8   41.5 -7
61 Armstrong 3 7 0.66 9.34 2.34 46.0 123 328 0.27 5 AAA Central Capital  4  6   50.7 1
62 Falls Church 5 4 2.58 6.42 2.42 65.0 147 206 0.42 5 AAA Northern National  4  5   58.7 -1
63 Kecoughtan 4 6 0.95 9.05 3.05 75.1 96 221 0.30 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  1  9   51.8 -3