VHSL-REFERENCE.COM   
1999  |   2000  |   2001  |   2002  |  2003  |   2004  |   2005  |   2006  |   2007  |   2008   |   2009   |   2010  |   2011  |   2012  |   2013   |   2014   |   2015  |   2016   |   2017  |   2018  |   2019  |  

Div1  |   Div2  |   Div3  |  Div4  |  Div5  |  Div6  

1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2000 Division 6 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W		 ACT
L		 Proj
W		 Proj
L		 ACT
vs
Proj
Diff		 State
Rating		 PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W		 YR+1
L		 YR+1
Rate
YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 Lake Braddock 7 4 10.30 0.70 -3.30 96.3 236 87 0.73 6 AAA Northern Patriot  5  4   93.4 -2
2 R.E. Lee(S) 4 6 6.60 3.40 -2.60 64.0 229 179 0.56 6 AAA Northern Liberty  4  5   71.9 0
3 Gar-Field 7 3 9.41 0.59 -2.41 85.7 319 114 0.74 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal  8  3   84.9 1
4 Chantilly 6 4 8.33 1.67 -2.33 87.6 236 130 0.64 6 AAA Northern Concorde  4  5   74.6 -2
5 Kempsville 4 6 6.25 3.75 -2.25 73.4 284 235 0.55 6 AAA Eastern Beach  4  6   71.5 0
6 Hermitage 2 8 4.10 5.90 -2.10 47.7 228 261 0.47 6 AAA Central Colonial  6  2   72.8 4
7 Western Branch 7 3 9.00 1.00 -2.00 87.5 325 144 0.69 6 AAA Eastern Southeastern  9  2   96.5 2
8 Ocean Lakes 6 4 7.87 2.13 -1.87 83.4 268 165 0.62 6 AAA Eastern Beach  6  4   84.1 0
9 Centreville * 12 2 13.81 0.19 -1.81 111.6 438 89 0.83 6 AAA Northern Concorde  10  1   108.7 -2
10 Bethel 4 6 5.65 4.35 -1.65 71.8 162 147 0.52 6 AAA Eastern Peninsula  8  2   97.9 4
11 GW-Danville 5 5 6.51 3.49 -1.51 71.5 208 165 0.56 6 AAA Northwest Western Valley  8  2   92.4 3
12 Varina 11 2 12.49 0.51 -1.49 96.0 420 128 0.77 6 AAA Central Capital  9  1   95.9 -2
13 Herndon 7 3 8.43 1.57 -1.43 89.3 242 130 0.65 6 AAA Northern Concorde  5  4   86.7 -2
14 James River(C) 9 2 10.31 0.69 -1.31 94.4 351 129 0.73 6 AAA Central Dominion  7  3   84.4 -2
15 Highland Springs 5 5 6.18 3.82 -1.18 68.0 227 190 0.54 6 AAA Central Capital  8  3   81.9 3
16 L.C. Bird 10 2 11.17 0.83 -1.17 91.6 370 141 0.72 6 AAA Central Dominion  8  2   92.0 -2
17 Deep Creek 13 1 13.96 0.04 -0.96 108.7 588 69 0.89 6 AAA Eastern Southeastern  11  2   102.7 -2
18 Potomac 10 1 10.95 0.05 -0.95 100.4 370 51 0.88 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal  9  3   82.7 -1
19 James Robinson 11 1 11.91 0.09 -0.91 112.0 406 67 0.86 6 AAA Northern Patriot  12  1   112.5 1
20 C.D. Hylton 9 2 9.74 1.26 -0.74 97.0 362 170 0.68 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal  12  1   97.9 3
21 Frank Cox 1 9 1.59 8.41 -0.59 56.5 195 361 0.35 6 AAA Eastern Beach  1  9   53.2 0
22 Salem(VB) 2 8 2.54 7.46 -0.54 60.8 218 325 0.40 6 AAA Eastern Beach  9  2   99.1 7
23 Princess Anne 9 2 9.30 1.70 -0.30 99.7 336 179 0.65 6 AAA Eastern Beach  5  5   77.6 -4
24 Oscar Smith 5 5 5.28 4.72 -0.28 77.0 221 212 0.51 6 AAA Eastern Southeastern  4  6   73.4 -1
25 Bayside 11 1 11.21 0.79 -0.21 106.5 364 136 0.73 6 AAA Eastern Beach  6  4   84.1 -5
26 Forest Park 0 2 0.16 1.84 -0.16 18.5 28 70 0.29 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal  3  7   59.2 3
27 First Colonial 8 3 8.12 2.88 -0.12 94.2 226 154 0.59 6 AAA Eastern Beach  6  4   84.1 -2
28 Douglas Freeman 5 5 5.03 4.97 -0.03 68.1 215 214 0.50 6 AAA Central Colonial  2  7   46.2 -3
29 Mills Godwin 9 1 9.02 0.98 -0.02 89.0 246 108 0.69 6 AAA Central Colonial  6  3   75.7 -3
30 Osbourn 0 10 0.02 9.98 -0.02 40.1 35 357 0.09 6 AAA Northwest Cedar Run  0  10   38.4 0
31 Hayfield 8 3 7.95 3.05 0.05 99.0 295 207 0.59 6 AAA Northern Patriot  6  4   87.0 -2
32 Westfield 6 4 5.72 4.28 0.28 50.8 226 203 0.53 6 AAA Northern Concorde  4  5   75.6 -2
33 Prince George 5 5 4.60 5.40 0.40 71.5 210 223 0.48 6 AAA Central Central  2  7   39.3 -3
34 Meadowbrook 2 8 1.51 8.49 0.49 50.6 132 250 0.35 6 AAA Central Central  5  4   65.1 3
35 Midlothian 5 5 4.45 5.55 0.55 64.1 153 166 0.48 6 AAA Central Dominion  7  2   84.3 2
36 Gloucester 5 5 4.45 5.55 0.55 77.7 211 229 0.48 6 AAA Eastern Peninsula  0  10   48.1 -5
37 Brooke Point 8 3 7.40 3.60 0.60 82.5 260 199 0.57 6 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  5  5   64.9 -3
38 Kellam 5 5 4.16 5.84 0.84 77.4 216 245 0.47 6 AAA Eastern Beach  10  2   101.8 5
39 Menchville 1 9 0.05 9.95 0.95 53.9 55 388 0.12 6 AAA Eastern Peninsula  4  6   72.1 3
40 Thomas Dale 4 6 3.04 6.96 0.96 65.0 120 163 0.42 6 AAA Central Central  11  2   101.4 7
41 Granby 7 3 5.99 4.01 1.01 88.5 189 163 0.54 6 AAA Eastern Eastern  8  2   85.2 1
42 Stonewall Jackson(M) 3 7 1.80 8.20 1.20 57.9 113 198 0.36 6 AAA Northwest Cedar Run  5  5   66.3 2
43 Franklin County 3 7 1.74 8.26 1.26 54.6 164 292 0.36 6 AAA Northwest Roanoke Valley  5  5   57.0 2
44 Hickory 5 5 3.58 6.42 1.42 80.3 203 252 0.45 6 AAA Eastern Southeastern  5  5   72.3 0
45 W.T. Woodson 5 5 3.44 6.56 1.56 71.0 192 244 0.44 6 AAA Northern Liberty  4  5   65.9 -1
46 Clover Hill 4 6 2.27 7.73 1.73 64.7 155 244 0.39 6 AAA Central Dominion  3  6   58.3 -1
47 Woodbridge 2 7 0.13 8.87 1.87 65.3 59 283 0.17 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal  2  8   53.6 0
48 Manchester 3 7 1.10 8.90 1.90 55.8 89 193 0.32 6 AAA Central Dominion  4  5   71.0 1
49 West Springfield 4 6 1.97 8.03 2.03 81.9 136 229 0.37 6 AAA Northern Patriot  6  3   95.4 2
50 Fairfax 5 5 2.92 7.08 2.08 70.5 142 197 0.42 6 AAA Northern Concorde  3  6   60.1 -2
51 T.C. Williams 3 7 0.75 9.25 2.25 70.7 111 281 0.28 6 AAA Northern Patriot  0  9   57.8 -3
52 Annandale 3 7 0.53 9.47 2.47 73.1 100 290 0.26 6 AAA Northern Patriot  4  5   81.7 1
53 Oakton 5 5 2.11 7.89 2.89 85.4 152 248 0.38 6 AAA Northern Concorde  7  3   100.7 2
54 Tallwood 4 6 0.86 9.14 3.14 73.6 112 269 0.29 6 AAA Eastern Beach  5  5   78.0 1
55 Osbourn Park 4 6 0.36 9.64 3.64 62.3 67 226 0.23 6 AAA Northwest Cedar Run  4  6   60.7 0