VHSL-REFERENCE.COM   
1999  |   2000  |   2001  |   2002  |  2003  |   2004  |   2005  |   2006  |   2007  |   2008   |   2009   |   2010  |   2011  |   2012  |   2013   |   2014   |   2015  |   2016   |   2017  |   2018  |   2019  |  

Div1  |   Div2  |   Div3  |  Div4  |  Div5  |  Div6  

1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2001 Division 1 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W
ACT
L
Proj
W
Proj
L
ACT
vs
Proj
Diff
State
Rating
PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W
YR+1
L
YR+1
Rate

YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 Rural Retreat 7 4 9.50 1.50 -2.50 37.1 355 179 0.66 1 A C Hogoheegee  5  5   28.8 -2
2 Surry 5 5 7.04 2.96 -2.04 20.3 171 124 0.58 1 A A Tri-Rivers  5  5   25.2 0
3 Manassas Park 5 5 7.03 2.97 -2.03 31.3 154 112 0.58 1 A B Bull Run  10  2   46.7 5
4 King & Queen 5 4 6.88 2.12 -1.88 17.0 212 137 0.61 1 A A Tidewater  2  8   6.0 -3
5 Rappahannock 8 3 9.49 1.51 -1.49 38.5 346 175 0.66 1 A A Northern Neck  3  7   9.2 -5
6 Eastern Montgomery 7 4 8.40 2.60 -1.40 39.2 304 197 0.61 1 A C Three Rivers  4  6   16.5 -3
7 Riverheads 9 2 10.37 0.63 -1.37 47.4 377 134 0.74 1 A B Shenandoah  9  2   40.2 0
8 William Campbell 9 3 10.01 1.99 -1.01 47.7 371 204 0.65 1 A B Dogwood  14  0   78.8 5
9 Stonewall Jackson(Q) 5 4 5.78 3.22 -0.78 32.8 175 141 0.55 1 A B Shenandoah  6  3   28.9 1
10 Franklin 7 4 7.68 3.32 -0.68 32.6 274 201 0.58 1 A A Tri-Rivers  8  3   38.7 1
11 Cumberland 4 6 4.49 5.51 -0.49 8.9 165 178 0.48 1 A B James River  7  3   43.3 3
12 Twin Springs 0 10 0.46 9.54 -0.46 -13.6 143 441 0.24 1 A D Cumberland  1  9   -17.5 1
13 Luray 0 8 0.42 7.58 -0.42 -5.2 97 284 0.25 1 A B Shenandoah  0  9   -8.1 0
14 Bath County * 11 1 11.40 0.60 -0.40 57.5 527 177 0.75 1 A C Pioneer  10  1   51.8 -1
15 Narrows 1 9 1.39 8.61 -0.39 -3.2 173 340 0.34 1 A C Mtn. Empire  9  3   33.7 8
16 Middlesex 4 6 4.35 5.65 -0.35 13.8 225 248 0.48 1 A A Tidewater  2  8   1.8 -2
17 Strasburg 11 1 11.20 0.80 -0.20 60.4 350 132 0.73 1 A B Bull Run  7  3   42.6 -4
18 West Point 0 10 0.04 9.96 -0.04 -13.8 56 419 0.12 1 A A Tidewater  0  10   -12.0 0
19 Rye Cove 5 5 4.91 5.09 0.09 23.0 225 228 0.50 1 A D Cumberland  7  4   28.3 2
20 Auburn 3 7 2.76 7.24 0.24 22.0 163 233 0.41 1 A C Three Rivers  5  6   23.2 2
21 Northwood 3 7 2.57 7.43 0.43 15.5 116 172 0.40 1 A C Hogoheegee  3  7   12.9 0
22 Craig County 1 8 0.51 8.49 0.49 -6.2 114 322 0.26 1 A C Pioneer  4  5   9.6 3
23 Altavista 1 7 0.50 7.50 0.50 4.2 87 238 0.27 1 A B Dogwood  1  8   19.0 0
24 Charles City 1 8 0.49 8.51 0.51 -8.9 99 284 0.26 1 A A Tri-Rivers  5  4   25.6 4
25 Sussex Central 9 5 8.44 5.56 0.56 38.2 286 245 0.54 1 A A Tri-Rivers  10  2   45.4 1
26 Parry McCluer 1 9 0.40 9.60 0.60 9.1 94 306 0.24 1 A C Pioneer  0  10   6.3 -1
27 Northumberland 1 9 0.38 9.62 0.62 7.5 104 343 0.23 1 A A Northern Neck  1  9   1.8 0
28 Castlewood 5 5 4.37 5.63 0.63 13.4 242 266 0.48 1 A D Cumberland  4  6   6.5 -1
29 Covington 2 8 1.34 8.66 0.66 11.3 167 333 0.33 1 A C Pioneer  1  9   -1.2 -1
30 Bland(RG) 4 4 3.29 4.71 0.71 17.4 147 168 0.47 1 A C Mtn. Empire  1  7   -11.3 -3
31 Colonial Beach 1 1 0.08 1.92 0.92 9.2 14 46 0.23 1 A A Northern Neck  1  0   21.6 0
32 Amelia County 4 6 3.04 6.96 0.96 12.4 212 288 0.42 1 A B James River  2  8   13.1 -2
33 Thomas Walker 2 6 0.93 7.07 1.07 5.1 137 291 0.32 1 A D Cumberland  0  8   -26.6 -2
34 Holston 3 7 1.72 8.28 1.28 8.4 163 292 0.36 1 A C Hogoheegee  3  7   6.5 0
35 Galax 9 3 7.55 4.45 1.45 40.6 361 297 0.55 1 A C Mtn. Empire  6  5   21.6 -3
36 Ervinton 2 8 0.32 9.68 1.68 -2.4 85 302 0.22 1 A D Cumberland  3  7   -2.5 1
37 Hurley 2 8 0.27 9.73 1.73 -3.5 112 421 0.21 1 A D Black Diamond  1  6   -3.1 -1
38 J.I. Burton 3 5 1.23 6.77 1.77 24.2 136 256 0.35 1 A D Lonesome Pine  5  6   29.5 2
39 Mathews 7 5 5.10 6.90 1.90 34.2 194 217 0.47 1 A A Tidewater  10  3   48.6 3
40 Twin Valley 4 6 2.02 7.98 1.98 17.1 179 298 0.38 1 A D Black Diamond  3  6   11.4 -1
41 Page 3 6 0.63 8.37 2.37 17.0 105 274 0.28 1 A B Shenandoah  2  8   5.8 -1