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1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2001 Division 3 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W		 ACT
L		 Proj
W		 Proj
L		 ACT
vs
Proj
Diff		 State
Rating		 PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W		 YR+1
L		 YR+1
Rate
YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 Grundy 8 3 10.03 0.97 -2.03 56.5 404 170 0.70 3 AA IV Southwest  9  3   61.6 1
2 Fluvanna 7 3 8.91 1.09 -1.91 41.7 233 107 0.69 3 AA II Jefferson  5  5   43.2 -2
3 New Kent 9 2 10.75 0.25 -1.75 79.0 444 111 0.80 3 AA I Bay Rivers  10  4   69.8 1
4 Fort Defiance 9 3 10.46 1.54 -1.46 73.6 370 182 0.67 3 AA II Valley  11  2   79.7 2
5 Harrisonburg * 11 3 12.39 1.61 -1.39 80.2 428 201 0.68 3 AA II Valley  7  3   70.0 -4
6 Graham 9 2 10.21 0.79 -1.21 74.5 446 173 0.72 3 AA IV Southwest  8  1   78.1 -1
7 Prince Edward 5 5 6.05 3.95 -1.05 27.5 240 205 0.54 3 AA I Southside  4  6   43.1 -1
8 Southampton 8 2 9.04 0.96 -1.04 78.7 303 132 0.70 3 AA I Bay Rivers  8  4   64.5 0
9 Western Albemarle 2 8 2.88 7.12 -0.88 23.2 248 347 0.42 3 AA II Jefferson  3  7   31.1 1
10 Dan River 7 4 7.80 3.20 -0.80 43.9 277 199 0.58 3 A IV Dogwood  4  5   33.1 -3
11 Brookville 8 3 8.72 2.28 -0.72 62.6 306 186 0.62 3 AA III Seminole  7  4   59.1 -1
12 Liberty(Bed) 10 3 10.60 2.40 -0.60 68.9 359 207 0.63 3 AA III Seminole  10  4   70.3 0
13 Gretna 11 1 11.52 0.48 -0.52 61.5 312 96 0.76 3 AA III Dogwood  8  4   59.2 -3
14 Monticello 3 6 3.50 5.50 -0.50 29.2 214 253 0.46 3 AA II Jefferson  8  3   63.2 5
15 Bruton 5 5 5.39 4.61 -0.39 61.2 176 166 0.51 3 AA I Bay Rivers  5  5   50.9 0
16 Matoaca 10 1 10.26 0.74 -0.26 62.6 464 175 0.73 3 AA I Southside  6  4   52.8 -4
17 Poquoson 10 3 10.09 2.91 -0.09 79.9 301 190 0.61 3 AA I Bay Rivers  6  4   59.7 -4
18 Virginia 1 8 1.02 7.98 -0.02 9.8 144 309 0.32 3 AA IV Highlands  6  4   42.7 5
19 Broadway 5 5 4.84 5.16 0.16 54.6 209 214 0.49 3 AA II Valley  5  5   51.2 0
20 Handley 6 4 5.83 4.17 0.17 60.3 213 188 0.53 3 AA II Northwestern  7  3   55.0 1
21 Brunswick 4 6 3.77 6.23 0.23 32.2 181 218 0.45 3 AA I Southside  1  9   26.0 -3
22 Stuarts Draft 2 8 1.76 8.24 0.24 36.0 148 262 0.36 3 AA II Valley  2  8   33.0 0
23 Rockbridge County 6 4 5.75 4.25 0.25 58.7 244 218 0.53 3 AA II Valley  8  3   65.5 2
24 Rustburg 6 5 5.66 5.34 0.34 52.1 182 178 0.51 3 AA III Seminole  3  7   41.2 -3
25 Spotswood 6 5 5.65 5.35 0.35 62.7 256 251 0.50 3 AA II Valley  8  4   69.2 2
26 R.E. Lee(ST) 7 4 6.63 4.37 0.37 62.2 266 228 0.54 3 AA II Valley  4  6   44.7 -3
27 Northampton 7 4 6.58 4.42 0.42 41.2 315 272 0.54 3 AA A Eastern Shore-A  4  6   18.8 -3
28 Greensville 6 4 5.49 4.51 0.51 38.4 230 214 0.52 3 AA I Southside  8  3   56.0 2
29 Christiansburg 1 9 0.39 9.61 0.61 29.5 113 371 0.23 3 AA III River Ridge  2  8   23.5 1
30 Park View(SH) 1 7 0.38 7.62 0.62 7.9 76 231 0.25 3 AA I Southside  4  4   46.6 3
31 Waynesboro 1 9 0.35 9.65 0.65 29.4 116 396 0.23 3 AA II Valley  2  8   32.0 1
32 William Monroe 2 8 1.35 8.65 0.65 22.4 132 263 0.33 3 AA II Jefferson  1  9   14.9 -1
33 Bluestone 2 8 1.34 8.66 0.66 13.6 162 323 0.33 3 AA I Southside  5  5   42.1 3
34 Appomattox 5 5 4.28 5.72 0.72 42.7 158 176 0.47 3 AA III Seminole  5  5   51.4 0
35 Nelson County 4 6 3.26 6.74 0.74 25.5 181 237 0.43 3 AA B Dogwood  8  3   60.1 4
36 Nottoway 5 5 3.98 6.02 1.02 36.7 182 212 0.46 3 AA I Southside  3  7   35.8 -2
37 Central(W) 3 7 1.78 8.22 1.22 19.8 165 291 0.36 3 AA II Northwestern  1  9   -0.2 -2
38 Alleghany 3 7 1.67 8.33 1.33 37.5 156 283 0.36 3 AA III Blue Ridge  3  7   27.1 0
39 York 6 4 4.62 5.38 1.38 66.4 207 219 0.49 3 AA I Bay Rivers  9  2   72.5 3
40 Lord Botetourt 4 6 2.54 7.46 1.46 52.3 200 298 0.40 3 AA III Blue Ridge  4  6   36.9 0
41 Tazewell 3 7 1.10 8.90 1.90 36.3 122 265 0.32 3 AA IV Southwest  3  7   39.6 0
42 Patrick County 3 7 0.87 9.13 2.13 24.3 88 210 0.30 3 AA IV Piedmont  4  7   37.9 1