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1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2001 Division 5 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W		 ACT
L		 Proj
W		 Proj
L		 ACT
vs
Proj
Diff		 State
Rating		 PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W		 YR+1
L		 YR+1
Rate
YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 Lee-Davis 5 4 8.09 0.91 -3.09 70.1 325 145 0.69 5 AAA Central Capital  6  4   68.0 1
2 Lake Taylor 5 5 7.60 2.40 -2.60 68.1 167 109 0.61 5 AAA Eastern Eastern  8  3   84.3 3
3 Cave Spring 8 3 10.23 0.77 -2.23 74.7 274 105 0.72 5 AAA Northwest Western Valley  0  10   22.3 -8
4 Yorktown 7 3 9.08 0.92 -2.08 77.6 308 132 0.70 5 AAA Northern National  5  5   61.8 -2
5 Heritage(NN) 6 4 7.90 2.10 -1.90 83.1 271 166 0.62 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  3  7   65.5 -3
6 Culpeper County 8 2 9.71 0.29 -1.71 86.1 306 83 0.79 5 AAA Northwest Cedar Run  5  5   73.4 -3
7 Hopewell 5 4 6.62 2.38 -1.62 68.1 276 189 0.59 5 AAA Central Central  9  3   84.6 4
8 Potomac 9 3 10.54 1.46 -1.54 82.7 380 183 0.67 5 AAA Northwest Cedar Run  5  5   84.4 -4
9 Thomas Edison 7 3 8.42 1.58 -1.42 77.6 249 134 0.65 5 AAA Northern National  9  2   79.3 2
10 Highland Springs 8 3 9.40 1.60 -1.40 81.9 335 174 0.66 5 AAA Central Capital  9  2   85.3 1
11 Halifax County 3 6 4.37 4.63 -1.37 40.8 181 185 0.49 5 AAA Northwest Western Valley  5  5   54.1 2
12 Lakeland 6 4 7.08 2.92 -1.08 81.4 168 121 0.58 5 AAA Eastern Southeastern  3  7   60.8 -3
13 Hampton 10 2 11.06 0.94 -1.06 102.3 367 147 0.71 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  8  2   94.1 -2
14 Massaponax 5 4 6.05 2.95 -1.05 56.1 231 177 0.57 5 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  7  3   59.0 2
15 Falls Church 4 5 4.95 4.05 -0.95 58.7 167 155 0.52 5 AAA Northern National  4  6   50.1 0
16 James Madison 8 3 8.94 2.06 -0.94 81.2 260 151 0.63 5 AAA Northern Liberty  8  3   83.6 0
17 Phoebus * 13 1 13.84 0.16 -0.84 108.2 508 97 0.84 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  14  0   111.7 1
18 Norview 7 4 7.74 3.26 -0.74 87.9 190 138 0.58 5 AAA Eastern Eastern  5  5   64.9 -2
19 Thomas Jefferson(A) 4 5 4.71 4.29 -0.71 60.3 174 168 0.51 5 AAA Northern Concorde  3  7   50.1 -1
20 George Marshall 3 6 3.47 5.53 -0.47 55.8 144 171 0.46 5 AAA Northern Liberty  1  9   43.2 -2
21 Dinwiddie 0 9 0.37 8.63 -0.37 24.9 99 317 0.24 5 AAA Central Central  1  9   32.8 1
22 Booker T. Washington 6 4 6.22 3.78 -0.22 77.4 142 118 0.55 5 AAA Eastern Eastern  8  3   84.8 2
23 Kecoughtan 1 9 1.20 8.80 -0.20 51.8 77 161 0.32 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  9  3   96.9 8
24 Indian River 0 10 0.13 9.87 -0.13 43.7 84 417 0.17 5 AAA Eastern Southeastern  4  6   72.5 4
25 J.E.B. Stuart 0 9 0.03 8.97 -0.03 33.6 53 421 0.11 5 AAA Northern National  0  10   30.9 0
26 Green Run 0 10 0.02 9.98 -0.02 47.1 51 526 0.09 5 AAA Eastern Beach  0  10   51.6 0
27 Thomas Jefferson(R) 0 9 0.01 8.99 -0.01 21.3 31 371 0.08 5 AAA Central Colonial  0  9   19.9 0
28 Patrick Henry(A) 12 1 11.97 1.03 0.03 92.5 439 177 0.71 5 AAA Central Colonial  8  4   63.4 -4
29 Mount Vernon 7 5 6.92 5.08 0.08 77.6 250 223 0.53 5 AAA Northern National  7  3   69.7 0
30 W.T. Woodson 4 5 3.72 5.28 0.28 65.9 217 247 0.47 5 AAA Northern Liberty  9  3   89.9 5
31 John Marshall 1 8 0.57 8.43 0.43 29.9 114 309 0.27 5 AAA Central Colonial  2  8   34.6 1
32 Colonial Forge 1 8 0.55 8.45 0.45 32.8 72 198 0.27 5 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  9  2   91.4 8
33 Stafford 4 5 3.46 5.54 0.54 51.1 183 218 0.46 5 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  11  3   91.0 7
34 South Lakes 1 8 0.42 8.58 0.58 49.0 108 330 0.25 5 AAA Northern Concorde  9  4   89.9 8
35 Huguenot 3 6 2.41 6.59 0.59 63.9 155 225 0.41 5 AAA Central Dominion  8  3   84.6 5
36 Colonial Heights 3 6 2.39 6.61 0.61 48.8 188 274 0.41 5 AAA Central Central  2  7   42.5 -1
37 George Wythe(R) 1 8 0.37 8.63 0.63 42.3 69 221 0.24 5 AAA Central Dominion  4  6   57.2 3
38 J.R. Tucker 3 6 2.30 6.70 0.70 55.8 193 287 0.40 5 AAA Central Colonial  3  7   43.2 0
39 Maury 2 8 1.26 8.74 0.74 54.3 107 219 0.33 5 AAA Eastern Eastern  0  10   32.0 -2
40 Warwick 7 4 6.23 4.77 0.77 88.4 244 221 0.52 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  4  6   72.0 -3
41 Washington-Lee 2 7 1.20 7.80 0.80 49.3 127 254 0.33 5 AAA Northern National  3  7   49.2 1
42 Albemarle 4 6 3.19 6.81 0.81 41.7 185 245 0.43 5 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  4  6   57.8 0
43 E.C. Glass 4 5 3.18 5.82 0.82 51.1 172 215 0.44 5 AAA Northwest Western Valley  4  6   52.7 0
44 McLean 5 4 4.13 4.87 0.87 66.4 205 218 0.48 5 AAA Northern Liberty  3  7   52.6 -2
45 Loudoun Valley 3 5 2.10 5.90 0.90 43.2 133 195 0.41 5 AAA II Dulles  3  6   43.3 0
46 Henrico 3 6 2.03 6.97 0.97 55.7 168 265 0.39 5 AAA Central Capital  0  10   26.4 -3
47 Woodside 4 6 2.97 7.03 1.03 69.6 149 205 0.42 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  8  2   94.5 4
48 Patrick Henry(R) 2 8 0.93 9.07 1.07 41.5 137 319 0.30 5 AAA Northwest Western Valley  5  5   54.3 3
49 Churchland 2 8 0.80 9.20 1.20 53.7 102 252 0.29 5 AAA Eastern Eastern  1  9   44.7 -1
50 Denbigh 2 8 0.76 9.24 1.24 59.1 86 217 0.28 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  4  6   68.9 2
51 North Stafford 6 4 4.71 5.29 1.29 70.2 224 234 0.49 5 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  4  6   61.2 -2
52 Wakefield 3 6 1.65 7.35 1.35 55.2 107 186 0.37 5 AAA Northern National  1  9   37.2 -2
53 Petersburg 6 5 4.43 6.57 1.57 63.9 255 295 0.46 5 AAA Central Central  6  4   68.4 0
54 Woodrow Wilson 3 7 1.28 8.72 1.72 61.2 152 309 0.33 5 AAA Eastern Eastern  4  6   64.9 1
55 Atlee 4 4 2.07 5.93 1.93 66.6 136 201 0.40 5 AAA Central Capital  3  6   50.3 -1
56 Nansemond River 3 7 0.93 9.07 2.07 58.9 87 202 0.30 5 AAA Eastern Southeastern  7  3   90.6 4
57 Norcom 5 5 2.57 7.43 2.43 77.8 104 154 0.40 5 AAA Eastern Eastern  6  4   75.7 1
58 Armstrong 4 6 1.05 8.95 2.95 50.7 127 281 0.31 5 AAA Central Capital  1  9   31.5 -3