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1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2001 Division 6 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W		 ACT
L		 Proj
W		 Proj
L		 ACT
vs
Proj
Diff		 State
Rating		 PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W		 YR+1
L		 YR+1
Rate
YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 Kempsville 4 6 6.90 3.10 -2.90 71.5 250 186 0.57 6 AAA Eastern Beach  8  3   98.1 4
2 Tallwood 5 5 7.89 2.11 -2.89 78.0 238 146 0.62 6 AAA Eastern Beach  5  5   82.1 0
3 Westfield 4 5 6.59 2.41 -2.59 75.6 289 199 0.59 6 AAA Northern Concorde  10  1   108.7 6
4 Bayside 6 4 8.25 1.75 -2.25 84.1 302 170 0.64 6 AAA Eastern Beach  6  4   88.2 0
5 Gar-Field 8 3 10.12 0.88 -2.12 84.9 324 131 0.71 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal  7  4   99.8 -1
6 Great Bridge 6 4 8.03 1.97 -2.03 80.4 274 163 0.63 6 AAA Eastern Southeastern  4  6   67.4 -2
7 Monacan 6 3 7.91 1.09 -1.91 79.9 229 110 0.68 6 AAA Central Dominion  7  3   83.2 1
8 Mills Godwin 6 3 7.88 1.12 -1.88 75.7 276 134 0.67 6 AAA Central Colonial  5  4   65.8 -1
9 Meadowbrook 5 4 6.74 2.26 -1.74 65.1 225 150 0.60 6 AAA Central Central  3  7   53.5 -2
10 Hermitage 6 2 7.72 0.28 -1.72 72.8 326 95 0.77 6 AAA Central Colonial  9  1   78.7 3
11 Western Branch 9 2 10.69 0.31 -1.69 96.5 418 112 0.79 6 AAA Eastern Southeastern  12  1   105.1 3
12 Deep Creek 11 2 12.67 0.33 -1.67 102.7 419 108 0.80 6 AAA Eastern Southeastern  8  3   90.0 -3
13 West Potomac 5 4 6.53 2.47 -1.53 87.4 275 192 0.59 6 AAA Northern Patriot  6  4   83.2 1
14 L.C. Bird 8 2 9.43 0.57 -1.43 92.0 282 100 0.74 6 AAA Central Dominion  10  2   97.3 2
15 James River(C) 7 3 8.08 1.92 -1.08 84.4 216 127 0.63 6 AAA Central Dominion  4  6   63.7 -3
16 Centreville 10 1 10.89 0.11 -0.89 108.7 363 66 0.85 6 AAA Northern Concorde  9  2   108.3 -1
17 R.E. Lee(S) 4 5 4.89 4.11 -0.89 71.9 161 151 0.52 6 AAA Northern Liberty  4  6   68.3 0
18 Chantilly 4 5 4.78 4.22 -0.78 74.6 132 126 0.51 6 AAA Northern Concorde  6  4   84.3 2
19 Ocean Lakes 6 4 6.73 3.27 -0.73 84.1 251 192 0.57 6 AAA Eastern Beach  9  3   100.0 3
20 Oscar Smith 4 6 4.70 5.30 -0.70 73.4 219 229 0.49 6 AAA Eastern Southeastern  7  3   88.5 3
21 C.D. Hylton 12 1 12.68 0.32 -0.68 97.9 380 97 0.80 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal  13  1   114.0 1
22 Landstown 4 6 4.62 5.38 -0.62 71.9 225 238 0.49 6 AAA Eastern Beach  4  6   76.8 0
23 Varina 9 1 9.57 0.43 -0.57 95.9 358 113 0.76 6 AAA Central Capital  9  1   90.4 0
24 GW-Danville 8 2 8.57 1.43 -0.57 92.4 299 154 0.66 6 AAA Northwest Western Valley  4  4   66.6 -4
25 First Colonial 6 4 6.56 3.44 -0.56 84.1 179 141 0.56 6 AAA Eastern Beach  4  6   76.0 -2
26 James Robinson * 12 1 12.50 0.50 -0.50 112.5 488 148 0.77 6 AAA Northern Patriot  11  1   111.2 -1
27 Woodbridge 2 8 2.33 7.67 -0.33 53.6 144 224 0.39 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal  5  5   89.5 3
28 Stonewall Jackson(M) 5 5 5.31 4.69 -0.31 66.3 177 169 0.51 6 AAA Northwest Cedar Run  0  10   56.5 -5
29 Fairfax 3 6 3.18 5.82 -0.18 60.1 136 170 0.44 6 AAA Northern Concorde  3  7   66.4 0
30 Osbourn 0 10 0.15 9.85 -0.15 38.4 86 410 0.17 6 AAA Northwest Cedar Run  2  8   67.7 2
31 T.C. Williams 0 9 0.08 8.92 -0.08 57.8 67 381 0.15 6 AAA Northern Patriot  2  8   70.4 2
32 Salem(VB) 9 2 9.06 1.94 -0.06 99.1 472 267 0.64 6 AAA Eastern Beach  7  3   94.3 -2
33 Gloucester 0 10 0.04 9.96 -0.04 48.1 55 407 0.12 6 AAA Eastern Peninsula  0  10   44.3 0
34 Annandale 4 5 4.02 4.98 -0.02 81.7 253 274 0.48 6 AAA Northern Patriot  5  5   84.0 1
35 Lake Braddock 5 4 4.97 4.03 0.03 93.4 200 185 0.52 6 AAA Northern Patriot  4  6   86.8 -1
36 Manchester 4 5 3.96 5.04 0.04 71.0 162 177 0.48 6 AAA Central Dominion  6  4   78.5 2
37 Thomas Dale 11 2 10.94 2.06 0.06 101.4 375 202 0.65 6 AAA Central Central  12  1   99.4 1
38 Oakton 7 3 6.91 3.09 0.09 100.7 163 121 0.57 6 AAA Northern Concorde  10  4   105.2 3
39 Hayfield 6 4 5.58 4.42 0.42 87.0 216 198 0.52 6 AAA Northern Patriot  3  7   72.3 -3
40 Franklin County 5 5 4.55 5.45 0.45 57.0 201 215 0.48 6 AAA Northwest Western Valley  9  2   76.5 4
41 Frank Cox 1 9 0.46 9.54 0.54 53.2 105 322 0.25 6 AAA Eastern Beach  3  7   69.9 2
42 Bethel 8 2 7.24 2.76 0.76 97.9 213 149 0.59 6 AAA Eastern Peninsula  2  8   61.3 -6
43 Midlothian 7 2 6.20 2.80 0.80 84.3 184 137 0.57 6 AAA Central Dominion  6  4   71.2 -1
44 Princess Anne 5 5 4.16 5.84 0.84 77.6 218 247 0.47 6 AAA Eastern Beach  4  6   76.8 -1
45 West Springfield 6 3 5.14 3.86 0.86 95.4 218 196 0.53 6 AAA Northern Patriot  6  4   94.6 0
46 Kellam 10 2 9.02 2.98 0.98 101.8 315 209 0.60 6 AAA Eastern Beach  6  4   89.0 -4
47 Hickory 5 5 3.87 6.13 1.13 72.3 172 204 0.46 6 AAA Eastern Southeastern  2  8   54.1 -3
48 Clover Hill 3 6 1.56 7.44 1.44 58.3 129 230 0.36 6 AAA Central Dominion  0  10   44.9 -3
49 Prince George 2 7 0.56 8.44 1.44 39.3 101 276 0.27 6 AAA Central Central  5  5   59.2 3
50 Osbourn Park 4 6 2.54 7.46 1.46 60.7 173 258 0.40 6 AAA Northwest Cedar Run  10  2   104.9 6
51 Douglas Freeman 2 7 0.36 8.64 1.64 46.2 84 274 0.23 6 AAA Central Colonial  4  6   48.0 2
52 Herndon 5 4 3.35 5.65 1.65 86.7 127 154 0.45 6 AAA Northern Concorde  3  7   73.7 -2
53 Forest Park 3 7 1.22 8.78 1.78 59.2 117 243 0.33 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal  3  7   78.4 0
54 Menchville 4 6 2.20 7.80 1.80 72.1 169 270 0.38 6 AAA Eastern Peninsula  3  7   61.9 -1
55 Granby 8 2 6.19 3.81 1.81 85.2 176 147 0.54 6 AAA Eastern Eastern  3  7   51.8 -5
56 Langley 4 5 1.72 7.28 2.28 71.2 133 227 0.37 6 AAA Northern Liberty  3  7   66.4 -1
57 Brooke Point 5 5 2.57 7.43 2.43 64.9 156 231 0.40 6 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  4  6   63.6 -1