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1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2002 Division 1 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W		 ACT
L		 Proj
W		 Proj
L		 ACT
vs
Proj
Diff		 State
Rating		 PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W		 YR+1
L		 YR+1
Rate
YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 Cumberland 7 3 9.43 0.57 -2.43 43.3 359 127 0.74 1 A B James River  4  6   26.1 -3
2 Franklin 8 3 10.40 0.60 -2.40 38.7 307 107 0.74 1 A A Tri-Rivers  7  4   51.4 -1
3 Stonewall Jackson(Q) 6 3 8.24 0.76 -2.24 28.9 273 113 0.71 1 A B Shenandoah  3  7   13.2 -3
4 Surry 5 5 7.03 2.97 -2.03 25.2 234 170 0.58 1 A A Tri-Rivers  6  5   40.2 1
5 J.I. Burton 5 6 7.03 3.97 -2.03 29.5 215 174 0.55 1 A D Lonesome Pine  9  4   35.8 4
6 Sussex Central 10 2 11.83 0.17 -1.83 45.4 455 94 0.83 1 A A Tri-Rivers  14  0   69.5 4
7 Riverheads 9 2 10.81 0.19 -1.81 40.2 433 96 0.82 1 A B Shenandoah  9  3   45.0 0
8 Mathews 10 3 11.53 1.47 -1.53 48.6 425 198 0.68 1 A A Tidewater  10  2   61.8 0
9 Strasburg 7 3 8.42 1.58 -1.42 42.6 225 121 0.65 1 A B Bull Run  3  7   8.0 -4
10 Rye Cove 7 4 7.99 3.01 -0.99 28.3 267 186 0.59 1 A D Cumberland  5  6   13.4 -2
11 Bland(RG) 1 7 1.99 6.01 -0.99 -11.3 138 208 0.40 1 A C Mtn. Empire  2  8   4.2 1
12 Charles City 5 4 5.88 3.12 -0.88 25.6 206 163 0.56 1 A A Tri-Rivers  5  5   32.0 0
13 Manassas Park 10 2 10.27 1.73 -0.27 46.7 302 156 0.66 1 A B Bull Run  12  1   56.4 2
14 Luray 0 9 0.23 8.77 -0.23 -8.1 92 355 0.21 1 A B Shenandoah  2  8   10.0 2
15 Narrows 9 3 9.10 2.90 -0.10 33.7 295 193 0.60 1 A C Mtn. Empire  7  3   36.1 -2
16 Parry McCluer 0 10 0.07 9.93 -0.07 6.3 65 405 0.14 1 A C Pioneer  1  9   4.9 1
17 Thomas Walker 0 8 0.06 7.94 -0.06 -26.6 58 345 0.14 1 A D Cumberland  0  9   -25.3 0
18 Craig County 4 5 4.01 4.99 -0.01 9.6 178 193 0.48 1 A C Pioneer  5  5   20.4 1
19 West Point 0 10 0.00 10.00 -0.00 -12.0 26 532 0.05 1 A A Tidewater  2  6   9.7 2
20 Colonial Beach 1 0 0.91 0.09 0.09 21.6 24 10 0.71 1 A A Northern Neck  0  2   -21.0 -1
21 William Campbell * 14 0 13.88 0.12 0.12 78.8 740 128 0.85 1 A B Dogwood  11  2   63.1 -3
22 Bath County 10 1 9.59 1.41 0.41 51.8 305 150 0.67 1 A C Pioneer  13  1   59.5 3
23 Twin Springs 1 9 0.56 9.44 0.44 -17.5 108 308 0.26 1 A D Cumberland  6  5   11.3 5
24 Northumberland 1 9 0.48 9.52 0.52 1.8 97 293 0.25 1 A A Northern Neck  4  6   27.2 3
25 Rural Retreat 5 5 4.40 5.60 0.60 28.8 202 221 0.48 1 A C Hogoheegee  5  5   22.7 0
26 Northwood 3 7 2.38 7.62 0.62 12.9 147 226 0.39 1 A C Hogoheegee  10  2   43.5 7
27 Covington 1 9 0.38 9.62 0.62 -1.2 100 330 0.23 1 A C Pioneer  4  6   23.9 3
28 Galax 6 5 5.29 5.71 0.71 21.6 241 248 0.49 1 A C Mtn. Empire  2  8   2.3 -4
29 Rappahannock 3 7 2.26 7.74 0.74 9.2 159 251 0.39 1 A A Northern Neck  1  9   14.6 -2
30 Hurley 1 6 0.08 6.92 0.92 -3.1 42 217 0.16 1 A D Black Diamond  1  3   0.7 0
31 Altavista 1 8 0.08 8.92 0.92 19.0 67 391 0.15 1 A B Dogwood  1  6   -5.2 0
32 Castlewood 4 6 2.94 7.06 1.06 6.5 191 264 0.42 1 A D Cumberland  5  6   9.0 1
33 Amelia County 2 8 0.67 9.33 1.33 13.1 94 250 0.27 1 A B James River  8  3   42.5 6
34 Middlesex 2 8 0.55 9.45 1.45 1.8 115 330 0.26 1 A A Tidewater  0  10   7.8 -2
35 Page 2 8 0.42 9.58 1.58 5.8 110 351 0.24 1 A B Shenandoah  1  9   9.0 -1
36 Holston 3 7 1.31 8.69 1.69 6.5 131 264 0.33 1 A C Hogoheegee  0  10   -13.4 -3
37 Auburn 5 6 3.27 7.73 1.73 23.2 210 289 0.42 1 A C Three Rivers  6  4   32.9 1
38 King & Queen 2 8 0.21 9.79 1.79 6.0 98 406 0.19 1 A A Tidewater  4  6   24.8 2
39 Eastern Montgomery 4 6 2.19 7.81 1.81 16.5 166 266 0.38 1 A C Three Rivers  6  5   32.7 2
40 Ervinton 3 7 0.78 9.22 2.22 -2.5 117 292 0.29 1 A D Cumberland  3  7   -2.4 0
41 Twin Valley 3 6 0.54 8.46 2.46 11.4 109 301 0.27 1 A D Black Diamond  0  8   -7.4 -3