VHSL-REFERENCE.COM   
1999  |   2000  |   2001  |   2002  |  2003  |   2004  |   2005  |   2006  |   2007  |   2008   |   2009   |   2010  |   2011  |   2012  |   2013   |   2014   |   2015  |   2016   |   2017  |   2018  |   2019  |  

Div1  |   Div2  |   Div3  |  Div4  |  Div5  |  Div6  

1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2002 Division 2 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W		 ACT
L		 Proj
W		 Proj
L		 ACT
vs
Proj
Diff		 State
Rating		 PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W		 YR+1
L		 YR+1
Rate
YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 Washington & Lee 10 3 12.83 0.17 -2.83 42.4 458 92 0.83 2 A A Northern Neck  6  5   46.9 -4
2 King William 6 4 8.79 1.21 -2.79 30.0 300 144 0.68 2 A A Tidewater  7  4   46.9 1
3 Lebanon 8 3 10.35 0.65 -2.35 45.1 304 109 0.74 2 A C Hogoheegee  7  4   36.0 -1
4 Giles 5 4 7.24 1.76 -2.24 33.6 255 151 0.63 2 A C Three Rivers  8  3   53.6 3
5 Buffalo Gap 7 4 9.15 1.85 -2.15 34.6 295 163 0.64 2 A B Shenandoah  6  5   35.4 -1
6 Lunenburg 8 4 9.73 2.27 -1.73 49.6 278 162 0.63 2 A B James River  9  3   49.8 1
7 James Monroe 9 3 10.58 1.42 -1.58 42.4 328 156 0.68 2 A I Battlefield  11  1   65.2 2
8 Radford 9 2 10.37 0.63 -1.37 52.9 342 121 0.74 2 A C Three Rivers  11  2   59.9 2
9 James River(B) 7 2 8.34 0.66 -1.34 36.0 253 99 0.72 2 A C Pioneer  6  4   31.7 -1
10 Floyd County 11 1 11.95 0.05 -0.95 59.5 459 60 0.88 2 A C Three Rivers  6  4   39.8 -5
11 Gate City 11 1 11.93 0.07 -0.93 67.1 497 75 0.87 2 A D Lonesome Pine  14  0   66.8 3
12 Nandua 6 3 6.66 2.34 -0.66 30.3 230 156 0.60 2 A I Eastern Shore-AA  6  1   55.7 0
13 Brentsville 7 3 7.63 2.37 -0.63 37.0 259 168 0.61 2 A II Bull Run  5  5   44.6 -2
14 George Wythe(W) * 13 1 13.55 0.45 -0.55 68.5 485 137 0.78 2 A C Hogoheegee  9  3   44.9 -4
15 Honaker 10 2 10.41 1.59 -0.41 49.5 315 157 0.67 2 A D Black Diamond  9  1   39.8 -1
16 Grayson County 3 5 3.34 4.66 -0.34 14.1 145 164 0.47 2 A C Mtn. Empire  7  4   32.0 4
17 Arcadia 0 9 0.17 8.83 -0.17 -4.7 82 355 0.19 2 A A Eastern Shore-A  1  8   14.4 1
18 Madison County 2 8 2.11 7.89 -0.11 9.4 154 251 0.38 2 A B Bull Run  3  7   19.6 1
19 Chilhowie 6 4 5.98 4.02 0.02 27.3 198 171 0.54 2 A C Hogoheegee  3  7   7.9 -3
20 John Battle 1 9 0.73 9.27 0.27 5.6 113 290 0.28 2 A C Hogoheegee  1  9   -0.3 0
21 Glenvar 2 8 1.53 8.47 0.47 8.2 128 241 0.35 2 A C Three Rivers  2  8   20.9 0
22 Essex 8 3 7.49 3.51 0.51 42.4 233 176 0.57 2 A A Northern Neck  10  4   57.7 2
23 Goochland 1 9 0.39 9.61 0.61 9.1 84 275 0.23 2 A B James River  3  7   16.3 2
24 Patrick Henry(GS) 3 7 2.38 7.62 0.62 17.1 145 223 0.39 2 A C Hogoheegee  5  5   20.4 2
25 Windsor 1 7 0.19 7.81 0.81 4.3 71 280 0.20 2 A A Three Rivers  3  6   27.8 2
26 Chatham 1 9 0.10 9.90 0.90 18.4 78 424 0.16 2 A B Dogwood  3  7   24.1 2
27 George Mason 2 7 0.86 8.14 1.14 9.4 103 237 0.30 2 A B Bull Run  6  4   33.8 4
28 Clarke County 4 5 2.84 6.16 1.16 21.4 141 188 0.43 2 A B Bull Run  5  5   19.6 1
29 Fort Chiswell 2 8 0.62 9.38 1.38 3.6 132 361 0.27 2 A C Mtn. Empire  4  6   12.5 2
30 Buckingham County 12 2 10.53 3.47 1.47 67.6 326 216 0.60 2 A B James River  4  6   39.9 -8
31 Wilson Memorial 5 5 3.22 6.78 1.78 10.7 201 265 0.43 2 A B Shenandoah  4  6   18.3 -1
32 Lancaster 3 7 0.42 9.58 2.58 15.1 79 251 0.24 2 A A Northern Neck  4  6   27.2 1
33 Randolph-Henry 4 6 1.10 8.90 2.90 31.2 110 239 0.32 2 A B James River  0  10   -1.7 -4