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1999-18 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2002 Division 3 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W
ACT
L
Proj
W
Proj
L
ACT
vs
Proj
Diff
State
Rating
PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W
YR+1
L
YR+1
Rate

YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 Prince Edward 4 6 7.05 2.95 -3.05 43.1 297 215 0.58 3 AA I Southside  7  4   56.4 3
2 Gretna 8 4 10.91 1.09 -2.91 59.2 472 201 0.70 3 AA III Dogwood  14  0   86.9 6
3 Liberty(Bed) * 10 4 12.52 1.48 -2.52 70.3 403 183 0.69 3 AA III Seminole  10  2   89.0 0
4 R.E. Lee(ST) 4 6 5.75 4.25 -1.75 44.7 227 203 0.53 3 AA II Valley  3  7   39.8 -1
5 Fort Defiance 11 2 12.69 0.31 -1.69 79.7 401 102 0.80 3 AA II Valley  8  3   68.3 -3
6 Bruton 5 5 6.65 3.35 -1.65 50.9 187 145 0.56 3 AA I Bay Rivers  5  5   50.5 0
7 Rockbridge County 8 3 9.59 1.41 -1.59 65.5 277 136 0.67 3 AA II Valley  6  4   52.6 -2
8 Southampton 8 4 9.21 2.79 -1.21 64.5 308 198 0.61 3 AA I Bay Rivers  5  5   53.9 -3
9 Fluvanna 5 5 6.13 3.87 -1.13 43.2 281 237 0.54 3 AA II Jefferson  5  5   47.3 0
10 Western Albemarle 3 7 4.02 5.98 -1.02 31.1 222 257 0.46 3 AA II Jefferson  10  1   78.9 7
11 Poquoson 6 4 6.76 3.24 -0.76 59.7 260 198 0.57 3 AA I Bay Rivers  10  3   74.1 4
12 Northampton 4 6 4.68 5.32 -0.68 18.8 264 277 0.49 3 AA A Eastern Shore-A  1  9   14.4 -3
13 Harrisonburg 7 3 7.58 2.42 -0.58 70.0 226 148 0.60 3 AA II Valley  9  2   73.5 2
14 Greensville 8 3 8.54 2.46 -0.54 56.0 276 174 0.61 3 AA I Southside  7  3   48.7 -1
15 Grundy 9 3 9.48 2.52 -0.48 61.6 330 202 0.62 3 AA IV Southwest  8  4   47.1 -1
16 Central(W) 1 9 1.48 8.52 -0.48 -0.2 150 287 0.34 3 AA II Northwestern  9  2   46.4 8
17 Patrick County 4 7 4.40 6.60 -0.40 37.9 155 180 0.46 3 AA IV Piedmont  2  8   16.9 -2
18 New Kent 10 4 10.38 3.62 -0.38 69.8 403 273 0.60 3 AA I Bay Rivers  7  4   60.8 -3
19 York 9 2 9.27 1.73 -0.27 72.5 348 187 0.65 3 AA I Bay Rivers  10  2   74.1 1
20 Bluestone 5 5 5.03 4.97 -0.03 42.1 208 207 0.50 3 AA I Southside  2  8   18.7 -3
21 Matoaca 6 4 5.99 4.01 0.01 52.8 239 206 0.54 3 AA I Southside  5  6   72.9 -1
22 Tazewell 3 7 2.82 7.18 0.18 39.6 138 195 0.41 3 AA IV Southwest  1  9   20.0 -2
23 Graham 8 1 7.76 1.24 0.24 78.1 320 162 0.66 3 AA IV Southwest  10  2   70.6 2
24 William Monroe 1 9 0.71 9.29 0.29 14.9 155 401 0.28 3 AA II Jefferson  3  7   33.8 2
25 Handley 7 3 6.56 3.44 0.44 55.0 249 196 0.56 3 AA II Northwestern  9  2   70.7 2
26 Appomattox 5 5 4.52 5.48 0.48 51.4 272 292 0.48 3 AA III Seminole  3  7   38.6 -2
27 Rustburg 3 7 2.43 7.57 0.57 41.2 134 204 0.40 3 AA III Seminole  7  5   64.4 4
28 Brunswick 1 9 0.37 9.63 0.63 26.0 102 341 0.23 3 AA I Southside  0  10   14.3 -1
29 Nottoway 3 7 2.35 7.65 0.65 35.8 162 251 0.39 3 AA I Southside  3  7   28.8 0
30 Spotswood 8 4 7.23 4.77 0.77 69.2 238 204 0.54 3 AA II Valley  1  9   26.9 -7
31 Virginia 6 4 5.18 4.82 0.82 42.7 155 151 0.51 3 AA IV Highlands  3  6   26.5 -3
32 Monticello 8 3 7.15 3.85 0.85 63.2 331 263 0.56 3 AA II Jefferson  11  3   76.0 3
33 Nelson County 8 3 7.09 3.91 0.91 60.1 333 267 0.56 3 AA B Dogwood  3  7   32.0 -5
34 Stuarts Draft 2 8 1.07 8.93 0.93 33.0 174 382 0.31 3 AA II Valley  3  7   35.5 1
35 Alleghany 3 7 2.01 7.99 0.99 27.1 147 245 0.38 3 AA III Blue Ridge  3  7   29.8 0
36 Brookville 7 4 6.00 5.00 1.00 59.1 216 202 0.52 3 AA III Seminole  1  9   44.9 -6
37 Lord Botetourt 4 6 2.96 7.04 1.04 36.9 143 197 0.42 3 AA III Blue Ridge  3  7   38.1 -1
38 Christiansburg 2 8 0.84 9.16 1.16 23.5 124 300 0.29 3 AA III River Ridge  5  6   52.4 3
39 Waynesboro 2 8 0.83 9.17 1.17 32.0 112 273 0.29 3 AA II Valley  3  7   44.2 1
40 Dan River 4 5 2.74 6.26 1.26 33.1 193 262 0.42 3 AA IV Dogwood  1  9   16.9 -3
41 Broadway 5 5 3.67 6.33 1.33 51.2 192 235 0.45 3 AA II Valley  6  4   60.8 1
42 Hidden Valley 2 4 0.23 5.77 1.77 20.6 54 179 0.23 3 AA III River Ridge  2  8   33.2 0
43 Park View(SH) 4 4 1.58 6.42 2.42 46.6 113 190 0.37 3 AA I Southside  3  6   33.1 -1