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1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2002 Division 4 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W
ACT
L
Proj
W
Proj
L
ACT
vs
Proj
Diff
State
Rating
PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W
YR+1
L
YR+1
Rate

YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 Salem 5 5 8.14 1.86 -3.14 46.5 197 114 0.63 4 AA IV River Ridge  8  2   74.0 3
2 Loudoun County 4 4 6.76 1.24 -2.76 56.0 167 89 0.65 4 AA II Dulles  2  7   35.4 -2
3 William Fleming 7 4 9.49 1.51 -2.49 59.4 249 126 0.66 4 AA III Blue Ridge  11  3   82.9 4
4 Liberty(Beal) 6 4 8.42 1.58 -2.42 60.3 199 107 0.65 4 AA II Northwestern  11  1   77.8 5
5 Grafton 7 4 9.01 1.99 -2.01 61.5 231 132 0.64 4 AA I Bay Rivers  6  5   62.8 -1
6 Chancellor 7 4 8.58 2.42 -1.58 65.0 254 159 0.62 4 AA I Battlefield  6  5   61.5 -1
7 Jefferson Forest 6 4 7.58 2.42 -1.58 53.9 209 137 0.60 4 AA III Seminole  7  3   77.5 1
8 Magna Vista 11 2 12.57 0.43 -1.57 72.3 543 156 0.78 4 AA IV Piedmont  10  3   67.8 -1
9 Turner Ashby 7 3 8.44 1.56 -1.44 67.2 183 98 0.65 4 AA II Valley  6  4   59.0 -1
10 Park View(St) 9 2 10.24 0.76 -1.24 67.6 238 91 0.72 4 AA II Dulles  5  5   57.2 -4
11 Amherst County 4 6 5.19 4.81 -1.19 45.0 144 140 0.51 4 AA III Seminole  8  2   84.8 4
12 Pulaski County 5 5 6.09 3.91 -1.09 49.1 191 162 0.54 4 AA III Blue Ridge  6  4   65.1 1
13 Martinsville 4 6 4.81 5.19 -0.81 36.2 137 141 0.49 4 AA IV Piedmont  6  5   46.5 2
14 Powhatan 11 1 11.74 0.26 -0.74 72.4 383 93 0.80 4 AA I Southside  14  0   89.5 3
15 Orange 4 6 4.72 5.28 -0.72 31.1 240 250 0.49 4 AA II Jefferson  5  5   49.5 1
16 Tunstall 6 4 6.68 3.32 -0.68 50.6 202 156 0.56 4 AA IV Piedmont  6  4   50.9 0
17 Lafayette 10 3 10.54 2.46 -0.54 76.5 389 227 0.63 4 AA I Bay Rivers  9  3   72.5 -1
18 Louisa 2 8 2.45 7.55 -0.45 24.7 211 320 0.40 4 AA II Jefferson  3  7   41.3 1
19 Broad Run 0 9 0.32 8.68 -0.32 18.9 84 284 0.23 4 AA II Dulles  6  4   51.6 6
20 Smithfield 0 10 0.31 9.69 -0.31 21.0 107 385 0.22 4 AA I Bay Rivers  3  7   40.7 3
21 Carroll County 5 5 5.30 4.70 -0.30 44.3 206 197 0.51 4 AA IV Southwest  10  2   61.0 5
22 Northside 10 1 10.25 0.75 -0.25 74.3 301 114 0.73 4 AA III Blue Ridge  1  9   29.8 -9
23 Charlottesville 10 1 10.25 0.75 -0.25 73.7 335 127 0.73 4 AA II Jefferson  2  8   35.6 -8
24 Stone Bridge 10 3 10.21 2.79 -0.21 74.2 419 259 0.62 4 AA Northern Liberty  12  1   82.8 2
25 Warren County 4 6 4.08 5.92 -0.08 50.1 169 194 0.47 4 AA II Northwestern  5  4   49.4 1
26 Marion 6 5 6.07 4.93 -0.07 42.0 215 199 0.52 4 AA IV Highlands  4  6   31.2 -2
27 Heritage(Lyn) * 13 1 12.84 1.16 0.16 84.0 353 145 0.71 4 AA III Seminole  10  1   89.1 -3
28 Jamestown 1 9 0.67 9.33 0.33 30.1 135 359 0.27 4 AA I Bay Rivers  1  9   26.2 0
29 Courtland 4 6 3.63 6.37 0.37 50.9 169 208 0.45 4 AA I Battlefield  6  4   64.8 2
30 William Byrd 6 4 5.52 4.48 0.48 48.8 201 186 0.52 4 AA III Blue Ridge  7  3   66.2 1
31 Spotsylvania 6 4 5.39 4.61 0.61 58.3 215 203 0.51 4 AA I Battlefield  5  5   54.6 -1
32 Staunton River 1 9 0.36 9.64 0.64 19.7 96 324 0.23 4 AA III Seminole  3  7   50.2 2
33 Richlands 8 3 7.33 3.67 0.67 66.4 257 199 0.56 4 AA IV Southwest  6  5   47.8 -2
34 King George 1 9 0.29 9.71 0.71 26.8 94 343 0.22 4 AA I Battlefield  0  10   22.8 -1
35 Blacksburg 8 4 7.28 4.72 0.72 63.6 229 195 0.54 4 AA III River Ridge  9  2   78.5 1
36 Tabb 2 8 1.21 8.79 0.79 36.0 151 315 0.32 4 AA I Bay Rivers  1  9   29.3 -1
37 Bassett 1 9 0.10 9.90 0.90 18.0 58 319 0.15 4 AA IV Piedmont  3  7   29.5 2
38 Sherando 2 5 0.97 6.03 1.03 37.5 82 161 0.34 4 AA II Northwestern  4  6   49.8 2
39 James Wood 2 5 0.77 6.23 1.23 34.4 78 169 0.32 4 AA II Northwestern  0  10   21.0 -2
40 Abingdon 4 6 2.69 7.31 1.31 32.2 145 210 0.41 4 AA IV Highlands  6  5   40.0 2
41 Caroline 2 8 0.61 9.39 1.39 25.5 108 298 0.27 4 AA I Battlefield  4  6   45.8 2
42 Lee 2 6 0.38 7.62 1.62 30.2 65 197 0.25 4 AA IV Highlands  1  6   16.7 -1
43 Fauquier 8 4 6.24 5.76 1.76 68.6 239 232 0.51 4 AA Northwest Northwestern  4  6   44.8 -4