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1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2002 Division 5 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W		 ACT
L		 Proj
W		 Proj
L		 ACT
vs
Proj
Diff		 State
Rating		 PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W		 YR+1
L		 YR+1
Rate
YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 Patrick Henry(A) 8 4 11.43 0.57 -3.43 63.4 273 90 0.75 5 AAA Central Colonial  7  3   65.2 -1
2 Kecoughtan 9 3 11.54 0.46 -2.54 96.9 263 80 0.77 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  7  3   70.7 -2
3 Lake Taylor 8 3 10.29 0.71 -2.29 84.3 299 111 0.73 5 AAA Eastern Eastern  8  3   75.8 0
4 James Madison 8 3 9.87 1.13 -1.87 83.6 248 111 0.69 5 AAA Northern Liberty  10  3   83.2 2
5 Patrick Henry(R) 5 5 6.80 3.20 -1.80 54.3 197 149 0.57 5 AAA Northwest Western Valley  2  8   40.9 -3
6 Thomas Edison 9 2 10.78 0.22 -1.78 79.3 302 71 0.81 5 AAA Northern National  5  5   64.4 -4
7 Warwick 4 6 5.78 4.22 -1.78 72.0 210 187 0.53 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  3  7   49.6 -1
8 Nansemond River 7 3 8.69 1.31 -1.69 90.6 258 128 0.67 5 AAA Eastern Southeastern  3  7   60.0 -4
9 Culpeper County 5 5 6.59 3.41 -1.59 73.4 171 134 0.56 5 AAA Northwest Cedar Run  2  8   48.8 -3
10 Huguenot 8 3 9.58 1.42 -1.58 84.6 314 155 0.67 5 AAA Central Dominion  5  5   71.2 -3
11 Mount Vernon 7 3 8.54 1.46 -1.54 69.7 244 127 0.66 5 AAA Northern National  7  4   71.6 0
12 Booker T. Washington 8 3 9.38 1.62 -1.38 84.8 228 119 0.66 5 AAA Eastern Eastern  6  4   70.8 -2
13 Highland Springs 9 2 10.37 0.63 -1.37 85.3 344 122 0.74 5 AAA Central Capital  9  2   83.4 0
14 Hampton 8 2 9.30 0.70 -1.30 94.1 287 110 0.72 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  10  1   83.5 2
15 Massaponax 7 3 8.03 1.97 -1.03 59.0 320 190 0.63 5 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  13  1   99.3 6
16 W.T. Woodson 9 3 9.80 2.20 -0.80 89.9 226 130 0.63 5 AAA Northern Liberty  7  4   73.3 -2
17 Woodside 8 2 8.78 1.22 -0.78 94.5 299 144 0.67 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  6  4   64.0 -2
18 McLean 3 7 3.74 6.26 -0.74 52.6 166 201 0.45 5 AAA Northern Liberty  1  9   36.5 -2
19 Woodrow Wilson 4 6 4.57 5.43 -0.57 64.9 213 227 0.48 5 AAA Eastern Eastern  5  5   65.3 1
20 Armstrong 1 9 1.48 8.52 -0.48 31.5 122 233 0.34 5 AAA Central Capital  3  7   47.7 2
21 E.C. Glass 4 6 4.34 5.66 -0.34 52.7 185 204 0.48 5 AAA Northwest Western Valley  6  4   66.1 2
22 J.R. Tucker 3 7 3.20 6.80 -0.20 43.2 149 197 0.43 5 AAA Central Colonial  5  5   53.7 2
23 Maury 0 10 0.16 9.84 -0.16 32.0 72 328 0.18 5 AAA Eastern Eastern  4  6   49.5 4
24 Thomas Jefferson(R) 0 9 0.13 8.87 -0.13 19.9 67 321 0.17 5 AAA Central Colonial  2  7   35.6 2
25 Cave Spring 0 10 0.13 9.87 -0.13 22.3 59 297 0.17 5 AAA Northwest Western Valley  5  5   48.6 5
26 Henrico 0 10 0.06 9.94 -0.06 26.4 49 333 0.13 5 AAA Central Capital  2  8   36.4 2
27 J.E.B. Stuart 0 10 0.05 9.95 -0.05 30.9 51 369 0.12 5 AAA Northern National  2  8   39.8 2
28 Green Run 0 10 0.01 9.99 -0.01 51.6 38 546 0.07 5 AAA Eastern Beach  0  10   55.5 0
29 Dinwiddie 1 9 1.00 9.00 -0.00 32.8 130 293 0.31 5 AAA Central Central  1  9   45.9 0
30 Colonial Forge 9 2 8.95 2.05 0.05 91.4 295 171 0.63 5 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  8  4   81.2 -1
31 Phoebus * 14 0 13.94 0.06 0.06 111.7 527 69 0.88 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  10  2   83.5 -4
32 Yorktown 5 5 4.94 5.06 0.06 61.8 213 215 0.50 5 AAA Northern National  10  2   79.9 5
33 Albemarle 4 6 3.92 6.08 0.08 57.8 210 247 0.46 5 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  6  5   70.6 2
34 Hopewell 9 3 8.83 3.17 0.17 84.6 336 230 0.59 5 AAA Central Central  13  1   105.2 4
35 Wakefield 1 9 0.68 9.32 0.32 37.2 122 321 0.28 5 AAA Northern National  1  9   36.6 0
36 Stafford 11 3 10.64 3.36 0.36 91.0 357 233 0.61 5 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  5  5   64.7 -6
37 Loudoun Valley 3 6 2.55 6.45 0.45 43.3 151 213 0.41 5 AAA II Dulles  8  3   65.8 5
38 North Stafford 4 6 3.46 6.54 0.54 61.2 158 200 0.44 5 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  5  6   70.7 1
39 Washington-Lee 3 7 2.38 7.62 0.62 49.2 184 283 0.39 5 AAA Northern National  4  6   47.2 1
40 Lakeland 3 7 2.32 7.68 0.68 60.8 163 254 0.39 5 AAA Eastern Southeastern  2  8   47.6 -1
41 George Marshall 1 9 0.29 9.71 0.71 43.2 85 310 0.22 5 AAA Northern Liberty  0  10   28.4 -1
42 Norview 5 5 4.24 5.76 0.76 64.9 175 196 0.47 5 AAA Eastern Eastern  0  10   27.9 -5
43 Petersburg 6 4 5.22 4.78 0.78 68.4 220 213 0.51 5 AAA Central Central  6  5   71.9 0
44 Churchland 1 9 0.15 9.85 0.85 44.7 79 372 0.18 5 AAA Eastern Eastern  2  8   39.9 1
45 George Wythe(R) 4 6 2.93 7.07 1.07 57.2 184 255 0.42 5 AAA Central Dominion  6  4   68.4 2
46 Heritage(NN) 3 7 1.92 8.08 1.08 65.5 142 242 0.37 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  4  6   53.9 1
47 Falls Church 4 6 2.89 7.11 1.11 50.1 197 275 0.42 5 AAA Northern National  4  6   52.7 0
48 South Lakes 9 4 7.86 5.14 1.14 89.9 254 217 0.54 5 AAA Northern Concorde  5  5   70.6 -4
49 Halifax County 5 5 3.82 6.18 1.18 54.1 215 257 0.46 5 AAA Northwest Western Valley  0  9   22.2 -5
50 Colonial Heights 2 7 0.75 8.25 1.25 42.5 120 291 0.29 5 AAA Central Central  3  7   50.2 1
51 Indian River 4 6 2.73 7.27 1.27 72.5 174 250 0.41 5 AAA Eastern Southeastern  10  3   94.2 6
52 Thomas Jefferson(A) 3 7 1.67 8.33 1.33 50.1 144 261 0.36 5 AAA Northern Concorde  4  6   58.6 1
53 Norcom 6 4 4.61 5.39 1.39 75.7 199 211 0.49 5 AAA Eastern Eastern  2  8   41.1 -4
54 Atlee 3 6 1.32 7.68 1.68 50.3 113 217 0.34 5 AAA Central Capital  6  4   61.4 3
55 John Marshall 2 8 0.17 9.83 1.83 34.6 77 343 0.18 5 AAA Central Colonial  0  10   26.2 -2
56 Potomac 5 5 2.48 7.52 2.52 84.4 114 172 0.40 5 AAA Northwest Cardinal  5  5   82.3 0
57 Denbigh 4 6 0.96 9.04 3.04 68.9 82 188 0.30 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  0  10   29.1 -4
58 Lee-Davis 6 4 2.79 7.21 3.21 68.0 157 223 0.41 5 AAA Central Capital  5  5   57.3 -1