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1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2002 Division 6 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W		 ACT
L		 Proj
W		 Proj
L		 ACT
vs
Proj
Diff		 State
Rating		 PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W		 YR+1
L		 YR+1
Rate
YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 Gar-Field 7 4 9.73 1.27 -2.73 99.8 219 103 0.68 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal  6  5   87.9 -1
2 Kellam 6 4 8.39 1.61 -2.39 89.0 223 121 0.65 6 AAA Eastern Beach  6  4   92.0 0
3 GW-Danville 4 4 6.32 1.68 -2.32 66.6 188 115 0.62 6 AAA Northwest Western Valley  4  6   49.1 0
4 Bayside 6 4 8.29 1.71 -2.29 88.2 228 127 0.64 6 AAA Eastern Beach  1  9   61.6 -5
5 Monacan 7 3 9.20 0.80 -2.20 83.2 225 91 0.71 6 AAA Central Dominion  9  1   94.3 2
6 Chantilly 6 4 7.79 2.21 -1.79 84.3 220 138 0.61 6 AAA Northern Concorde  5  5   88.6 -1
7 Kempsville 8 3 9.64 1.36 -1.64 98.1 335 162 0.67 6 AAA Eastern Beach  5  5   87.0 -3
8 L.C. Bird 10 2 11.56 0.44 -1.56 97.3 360 107 0.77 6 AAA Central Dominion  10  3   98.0 0
9 Tallwood 5 5 6.54 3.46 -1.54 82.1 228 180 0.56 6 AAA Eastern Beach  5  5   87.0 0
10 Oakton 10 4 11.54 2.46 -1.54 105.2 328 185 0.64 6 AAA Northern Concorde  6  4   85.0 -4
11 Ocean Lakes 9 3 10.12 1.88 -1.12 100.0 302 162 0.65 6 AAA Eastern Beach  5  5   85.9 -4
12 Hermitage 9 1 9.96 0.04 -0.96 78.7 341 45 0.88 6 AAA Central Colonial  9  1   74.7 0
13 Hickory 2 8 2.95 7.05 -0.95 54.1 126 174 0.42 6 AAA Eastern Southeastern  6  4   70.9 4
14 Deep Creek 8 3 8.88 2.12 -0.88 90.0 301 177 0.63 6 AAA Eastern Southeastern  7  4   82.2 -1
15 C.D. Hylton * 13 1 13.86 0.14 -0.86 114.0 307 56 0.85 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal  12  1   112.2 -1
16 Thomas Dale 12 1 12.82 0.18 -0.82 99.4 446 92 0.83 6 AAA Central Central  8  2   93.0 -4
17 West Potomac 6 4 6.80 3.20 -0.80 83.2 279 211 0.57 6 AAA Northern Patriot  3  7   71.8 -3
18 Mills Godwin 5 4 5.77 3.23 -0.77 65.8 145 117 0.55 6 AAA Central Colonial  8  3   81.0 3
19 Osbourn Park 10 2 10.75 1.25 -0.75 104.9 211 95 0.69 6 AAA Northwest Cedar Run  9  3   98.0 -1
20 Western Branch 12 1 12.71 0.29 -0.71 105.1 551 135 0.80 6 AAA Eastern Southeastern  11  1   101.6 -1
21 Franklin County 9 2 9.66 1.34 -0.66 76.5 301 145 0.67 6 AAA Northwest Western Valley  7  4   73.9 -2
22 Centreville 9 2 9.64 1.36 -0.64 108.3 297 144 0.67 6 AAA Northern Concorde  7  3   95.9 -2
23 Princess Anne 4 6 4.56 5.44 -0.56 76.8 207 221 0.48 6 AAA Eastern Beach  5  5   86.5 1
24 Brooke Point 4 6 4.44 5.56 -0.44 63.6 173 188 0.48 6 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  4  6   58.3 0
25 Westfield 10 1 10.40 0.60 -0.40 108.7 357 124 0.74 6 AAA Northern Concorde  14  0   121.8 4
26 James Robinson 11 1 11.38 0.62 -0.38 111.2 423 144 0.75 6 AAA Northern Patriot  11  1   110.4 0
27 Fairfax 3 7 3.35 6.65 -0.35 66.4 170 219 0.44 6 AAA Northern Concorde  4  6   64.2 1
28 Landstown 4 6 4.30 5.70 -0.30 76.8 217 241 0.47 6 AAA Eastern Beach  13  1   113.0 9
29 Gloucester 0 10 0.24 9.76 -0.24 44.3 94 373 0.20 6 AAA Eastern Peninsula  1  9   35.0 1
30 Manchester 6 4 6.17 3.83 -0.17 78.5 223 187 0.54 6 AAA Central Dominion  7  3   84.2 1
31 Clover Hill 0 10 0.14 9.86 -0.14 44.9 63 304 0.17 6 AAA Central Dominion  3  7   62.1 3
32 Stonewall Jackson(M) 0 10 0.12 9.88 -0.12 56.5 46 236 0.16 6 AAA Northwest Cedar Run  2  8   67.2 2
33 R.E. Lee(S) 4 6 4.05 5.95 -0.05 68.3 156 180 0.46 6 AAA Northern Liberty  8  3   86.5 4
34 Varina 9 1 9.00 1.00 -0.00 90.4 321 142 0.69 6 AAA Central Capital  10  2   88.0 1
35 West Springfield 6 4 6.00 4.00 0.00 94.6 216 186 0.54 6 AAA Northern Patriot  3  7   70.8 -3
36 Prince George 5 5 4.81 5.19 0.19 59.2 205 211 0.49 6 AAA Central Central  2  8   53.0 -3
37 Herndon 3 7 2.75 7.25 0.25 73.7 157 225 0.41 6 AAA Northern Concorde  7  4   95.2 4
38 Salem(VB) 7 3 6.69 3.31 0.31 94.3 287 221 0.56 6 AAA Eastern Beach  4  6   79.8 -3
39 Hayfield 3 7 2.66 7.34 0.34 72.3 160 233 0.41 6 AAA Northern Patriot  6  4   91.3 3
40 Woodbridge 5 5 4.66 5.34 0.34 89.5 134 141 0.49 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal  3  7   72.1 -2
41 Frank Cox 3 7 2.61 7.39 0.39 69.9 177 260 0.41 6 AAA Eastern Beach  7  3   98.3 4
42 Annandale 5 5 4.42 5.58 0.58 84.0 211 230 0.48 6 AAA Northern Patriot  6  4   88.5 1
43 First Colonial 4 6 3.41 6.59 0.59 76.0 167 213 0.44 6 AAA Eastern Beach  7  3   95.7 3
44 Douglas Freeman 4 6 3.25 6.75 0.75 48.0 138 181 0.43 6 AAA Central Colonial  7  3   68.1 3
45 Granby 3 7 2.21 7.79 0.79 51.8 138 220 0.39 6 AAA Eastern Eastern  7  3   68.9 4
46 Lake Braddock 4 6 3.18 6.82 0.82 86.8 178 236 0.43 6 AAA Northern Patriot  3  7   72.4 -1
47 James River(C) 4 6 2.93 7.07 1.07 63.7 132 183 0.42 6 AAA Central Dominion  0  10   37.5 -4
48 Osbourn 2 8 0.84 9.16 1.16 67.7 79 191 0.29 6 AAA Northwest Cedar Run  4  6   76.7 2
49 T.C. Williams 2 8 0.84 9.16 1.16 70.4 129 313 0.29 6 AAA Northern Patriot  1  9   55.9 -1
50 Midlothian 6 4 4.76 5.24 1.24 71.2 136 141 0.49 6 AAA Central Dominion  2  8   52.1 -4
51 Menchville 3 7 1.73 8.27 1.27 61.9 166 296 0.36 6 AAA Eastern Peninsula  2  8   38.4 -1
52 Meadowbrook 3 7 1.69 8.31 1.31 53.5 132 238 0.36 6 AAA Central Central  8  4   86.6 5
53 Bethel 2 8 0.43 9.57 1.57 61.3 90 285 0.24 6 AAA Eastern Peninsula  7  3   74.5 5
54 Langley 3 7 1.21 8.79 1.79 66.4 107 223 0.32 6 AAA Northern Liberty  4  6   64.6 1
55 Great Bridge 4 6 1.89 8.11 2.11 67.4 169 290 0.37 6 AAA Eastern Southeastern  2  8   53.5 -2
56 Forest Park 3 7 0.81 9.19 2.19 78.4 56 138 0.29 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal  2  8   66.8 -1
57 Oscar Smith 7 3 4.50 5.50 2.50 88.5 208 224 0.48 6 AAA Eastern Southeastern  9  2   95.6 2