VHSL-REFERENCE.COM   
1999  |   2000  |   2001  |   2002  |  2003  |   2004  |   2005  |   2006  |   2007  |   2008   |   2009   |   2010  |   2011  |   2012  |   2013   |   2014   |   2015  |   2016   |   2017  |   2018  |   2019  |  

Div1  |   Div2  |   Div3  |  Div4  |  Div5  |  Div6  

1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2003 Division 3 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W		 ACT
L		 Proj
W		 Proj
L		 ACT
vs
Proj
Diff		 State
Rating		 PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W		 YR+1
L		 YR+1
Rate
YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 Bruton 5 5 8.12 1.88 -3.12 50.5 237 138 0.63 3 AA I Bay Rivers  5  5   51.5 0
2 Greensville 7 3 9.41 0.59 -2.41 48.7 356 128 0.74 3 AA I Southside  8  3   48.2 1
3 Virginia 3 6 5.23 3.77 -2.23 26.5 245 217 0.53 3 AA IV Highlands  5  7   33.3 2
4 Rockbridge County 6 4 7.43 2.57 -1.43 52.6 215 145 0.60 3 AA II Valley  9  2   70.7 3
5 Fort Defiance 8 3 9.20 1.80 -1.20 68.3 315 172 0.65 3 AA II Valley  2  8   35.6 -6
6 Handley 9 2 9.91 1.09 -0.91 70.7 351 155 0.69 3 AA II Northwestern  9  4   71.7 0
7 Brookville 1 9 1.89 8.11 -0.89 44.9 154 264 0.37 3 AA III Seminole  4  6   53.8 3
8 Nandua 6 1 6.88 0.12 -0.88 55.7 293 65 0.82 3 AA I Eastern Shore-AA  5  6   37.0 -1
9 Poquoson 10 3 10.85 2.15 -0.85 74.1 395 217 0.65 3 AA I Bay Rivers  11  3   72.8 1
10 York 10 2 10.75 1.25 -0.75 74.1 428 193 0.69 3 AA I Bay Rivers  8  4   62.0 -2
11 Park View(SH) 3 6 3.72 5.28 -0.72 33.1 165 188 0.47 3 AA I Southside  3  7   23.2 0
12 R.E. Lee(ST) 3 7 3.67 6.33 -0.67 39.8 210 257 0.45 3 AA II Valley  7  3   60.3 4
13 Broadway 6 4 6.59 3.41 -0.59 60.8 176 138 0.56 3 AA II Valley  9  3   71.4 3
14 Graham 10 2 10.52 1.48 -0.52 70.6 422 204 0.67 3 AA IV Southwest  5  6   36.8 -5
15 Monticello 11 3 11.41 2.59 -0.41 76.0 487 281 0.63 3 AA II Jefferson  8  3   56.7 -3
16 Western Albemarle 10 1 10.25 0.75 -0.25 78.9 493 187 0.73 3 AA II Jefferson  3  7   34.2 -7
17 New Kent 7 4 7.25 3.75 -0.25 60.8 305 239 0.56 3 AA I Bay Rivers  6  4   57.6 -1
18 Brentsville 5 5 5.11 4.89 -0.11 44.6 184 181 0.50 3 AA II Northwestern  2  8   29.6 -3
19 Brunswick 0 10 0.06 9.94 -0.06 14.3 68 464 0.13 3 AA I Southside  1  9   12.7 1
20 Lord Botetourt 3 7 3.04 6.96 -0.04 38.1 173 235 0.42 3 AA III Blue Ridge  5  5   58.4 2
21 Grundy 8 4 7.93 4.07 0.07 47.1 320 250 0.56 3 AA IV Southwest  9  2   52.7 1
22 Gretna * 14 0 13.91 0.09 0.09 86.9 694 109 0.86 3 AA III Dogwood  14  0   84.4 0
23 Southampton 5 5 4.71 5.29 0.29 53.9 207 216 0.49 3 AA I Bay Rivers  2  8   36.3 -3
24 Martinsville 6 5 5.68 5.32 0.32 46.5 170 166 0.51 3 AA IV Piedmont  5  5   41.4 -1
25 Alleghany 3 7 2.67 7.33 0.33 29.8 233 339 0.41 3 AA III Blue Ridge  2  8   36.0 -1
26 Hidden Valley 2 8 1.61 8.39 0.39 33.2 139 256 0.35 3 AA III River Ridge  6  5   64.1 4
27 William Monroe 3 7 2.60 7.40 0.40 33.8 237 349 0.40 3 AA II Jefferson  2  8   25.1 -1
28 Tazewell 1 9 0.50 9.50 0.50 20.0 98 291 0.25 3 AA IV Southwest  8  5   51.0 7
29 Dan River 1 9 0.45 9.55 0.55 16.9 118 366 0.24 3 AA IV Dogwood  1  9   21.6 0
30 Loudoun County 2 7 1.31 7.69 0.69 35.4 127 245 0.34 3 AA II Dulles  2  8   40.1 0
31 Dominion 1 8 0.22 8.78 0.78 20.5 89 349 0.20 3 AA II Dulles  3  7   27.7 2
32 Stuarts Draft 3 7 1.99 8.01 1.01 35.5 164 275 0.37 3 AA II Valley  3  7   34.6 0
33 Bluestone 2 8 0.86 9.14 1.14 18.7 130 312 0.29 3 AA I Southside  0  10   -1.2 -2
34 Appomattox 3 7 1.72 8.28 1.28 38.6 161 288 0.36 3 AA III Seminole  1  9   21.8 -2
35 Nottoway 3 7 1.67 8.33 1.33 28.8 161 292 0.36 3 AA I Southside  5  5   35.1 2
36 Fluvanna 5 5 3.37 6.63 1.63 47.3 200 257 0.44 3 AA II Jefferson  3  7   29.7 -2
37 Waynesboro 3 7 1.10 8.90 1.90 44.2 117 254 0.32 3 AA II Valley  3  7   40.1 0
38 Christiansburg 5 6 2.76 8.24 2.24 52.4 120 180 0.40 3 AA III River Ridge  9  3   79.1 4
39 Rustburg 7 5 4.53 7.47 2.47 64.4 152 183 0.45 3 AA III Seminole  3  7   37.0 -4
40 Cave Spring 5 5 2.52 7.48 2.48 48.6 127 190 0.40 3 AA III River Ridge  7  4   70.3 2
41 Prince Edward 7 4 4.52 6.48 2.48 56.4 230 263 0.47 3 AA I Southside  6  4   49.6 -1
42 Millbrook 3 7 0.46 9.54 2.54 32.7 101 311 0.25 3 AA II Northwestern  2  8   33.0 -1