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1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2003 Division 4 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W		 ACT
L		 Proj
W		 Proj
L		 ACT
vs
Proj
Diff		 State
Rating		 PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W		 YR+1
L		 YR+1
Rate
YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 Richlands 6 5 8.55 2.45 -2.55 47.8 286 180 0.61 4 AA IV Southwest  11  2   66.1 5
2 Magna Vista 10 3 12.35 0.65 -2.35 67.8 352 118 0.75 4 AA IV Piedmont  4  6   43.5 -6
3 Broad Run 6 4 8.27 1.73 -2.27 51.6 218 122 0.64 4 AA II Dulles  6  4   60.6 0
4 Pulaski County 6 4 8.13 1.87 -2.13 65.1 276 160 0.63 4 AA III River Ridge  8  2   83.2 2
5 Sherando 4 6 6.12 3.88 -2.12 49.8 186 157 0.54 4 AA II Northwestern  8  2   76.5 4
6 Salem 8 2 9.75 0.25 -1.75 74.0 295 76 0.80 4 AA IV River Ridge  13  1   95.2 5
7 William Fleming 11 3 12.74 1.26 -1.74 82.9 276 117 0.70 4 AA III Blue Ridge  7  4   67.5 -4
8 Lafayette 9 3 10.53 1.47 -1.53 72.5 313 151 0.67 4 AA I Bay Rivers  11  1   81.2 2
9 Jefferson Forest 7 3 8.26 1.74 -1.26 77.5 185 104 0.64 4 AA III Seminole  6  4   57.6 -1
10 Courtland 6 4 6.90 3.10 -0.90 64.8 183 136 0.57 4 AA I Battlefield  6  5   58.4 0
11 Liberty(Beal) 11 1 11.88 0.12 -0.88 77.8 398 73 0.85 4 AA II Northwestern  10  1   79.2 -1
12 Liberty(Bed) 10 2 10.86 1.14 -0.86 89.0 357 155 0.70 4 AA III Seminole  10  1   82.1 0
13 Marion 4 6 4.83 5.17 -0.83 31.2 194 199 0.49 4 AA IV Highlands  3  7   19.4 -1
14 Abingdon 6 5 6.82 4.18 -0.82 40.0 254 212 0.55 4 AA IV Highlands  2  8   15.1 -4
15 Loudoun Valley 8 3 8.75 2.25 -0.75 65.8 248 150 0.62 4 AA II Dulles  7  3   66.5 -1
16 Stone Bridge 12 1 12.70 0.30 -0.70 82.8 522 130 0.80 4 AA Northern Liberty  11  1   83.1 -1
17 Chancellor 6 5 6.69 4.31 -0.69 61.5 233 198 0.54 4 AA I Battlefield  5  5   51.7 -1
18 Tunstall 6 4 6.60 3.40 -0.60 50.9 221 173 0.56 4 AA IV Piedmont  3  7   31.7 -3
19 Carroll County 10 2 10.45 1.55 -0.45 61.0 292 144 0.67 4 AA IV Southwest  6  5   39.9 -4
20 Park View(St) 5 5 5.34 4.66 -0.34 57.2 183 174 0.51 4 AA II Dulles  8  2   70.2 3
21 James Wood 0 10 0.24 9.76 -0.24 21.0 78 309 0.20 4 AA II Northwestern  1  9   32.3 1
22 William Byrd 7 3 7.24 2.76 -0.24 66.2 260 182 0.59 4 AA III Blue Ridge  4  6   54.7 -3
23 Orange 5 5 5.20 4.80 -0.20 49.5 239 232 0.51 4 AA II Jefferson  8  2   56.6 3
24 Blacksburg 9 2 9.11 1.89 -0.11 78.5 290 162 0.64 4 AA III River Ridge  2  8   44.4 -7
25 Harrisonburg 9 2 9.09 1.91 -0.09 73.5 319 179 0.64 4 AA II Valley  12  2   83.8 3
26 Staunton River 3 7 3.04 6.96 -0.04 50.2 150 204 0.42 4 AA III Seminole  0  10   20.7 -3
27 Fauquier 4 6 4.03 5.97 -0.03 44.8 173 200 0.46 4 AA Northwest Northwestern  4  6   48.1 0
28 King George 0 10 0.02 9.98 -0.02 22.8 41 386 0.10 4 AA I Battlefield  2  8   24.2 2
29 Louisa 3 7 2.89 7.11 0.11 41.3 200 279 0.42 4 AA II Jefferson  8  3   61.3 5
30 Jamestown 1 9 0.89 9.11 0.11 26.2 126 298 0.30 4 AA I Bay Rivers  5  5   50.0 4
31 Powhatan * 14 0 13.82 0.18 0.18 89.5 503 100 0.83 4 AA I Southside  9  2   63.3 -5
32 Spotswood 1 9 0.80 9.20 0.20 26.9 106 262 0.29 4 AA II Valley  1  9   28.0 0
33 Spotsylvania 5 5 4.79 5.21 0.21 54.6 191 197 0.49 4 AA I Battlefield  1  9   24.2 -4
34 Northside 1 9 0.69 9.31 0.31 29.8 113 297 0.28 4 AA III Blue Ridge  2  8   44.7 1
35 Tabb 1 9 0.63 9.37 0.37 29.3 156 423 0.27 4 AA I Bay Rivers  0  10   22.8 -1
36 Turner Ashby 6 4 5.14 4.86 0.86 59.0 193 189 0.51 4 AA II Valley  6  4   60.5 0
37 Heritage(Lyn) 10 1 9.11 1.89 0.89 89.1 240 134 0.64 4 AA III Seminole  6  4   58.1 -4
38 Charlottesville 2 8 1.06 8.94 0.94 35.6 137 302 0.31 4 AA II Jefferson  3  7   34.3 1
39 Lee 1 6 0.05 6.95 0.95 16.7 45 288 0.14 4 AA IV Highlands  1  9   11.7 0
40 Warren County 5 4 3.91 5.09 1.09 49.4 146 161 0.48 4 AA II Northwestern  6  4   54.1 1
41 Smithfield 3 7 1.81 8.19 1.19 40.7 144 252 0.36 4 AA I Bay Rivers  1  9   26.6 -2
42 Grafton 6 5 4.52 6.48 1.48 62.8 203 232 0.47 4 AA I Bay Rivers  10  3   75.9 4
43 Patrick County 2 8 0.36 9.64 1.64 16.9 80 271 0.23 4 AA IV Piedmont  3  7   22.4 1
44 Bassett 3 7 1.28 8.72 1.72 29.5 110 224 0.33 4 AA IV Piedmont  9  3   56.8 6
45 Heritage(Le) 2 8 0.15 9.85 1.85 24.1 50 234 0.18 4 AA II Dulles  3  7   40.3 1
46 Caroline 4 6 1.98 8.02 2.02 45.8 130 218 0.37 4 AA I Battlefield  1  9   17.1 -3
47 Amherst County 8 2 5.85 4.15 2.15 84.8 243 214 0.53 4 AA III Seminole  10  2   81.8 2