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1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2003 Division 5 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W		 ACT
L		 Proj
W		 Proj
L		 ACT
vs
Proj
Diff		 State
Rating		 PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W		 YR+1
L		 YR+1
Rate
YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 W.T. Woodson 7 4 10.35 0.65 -3.35 73.3 218 78 0.74 5 AAA Northern Liberty  11  2   95.5 4
2 Huguenot 5 5 8.10 1.90 -3.10 71.2 274 160 0.63 5 AAA Central Dominion  4  6   54.5 -1
3 Mount Vernon 7 4 9.75 1.25 -2.75 71.6 244 114 0.68 5 AAA Northern National  6  4   73.1 -1
4 Kecoughtan 7 3 9.70 0.30 -2.70 70.7 283 78 0.78 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  5  5   72.1 -2
5 James Madison 10 3 12.55 0.45 -2.55 83.2 315 92 0.77 5 AAA Northern Liberty  5  5   69.4 -5
6 Thomas Edison 5 5 7.28 2.72 -2.28 64.4 236 164 0.59 5 AAA Northern National  9  3   87.8 4
7 Indian River 10 3 11.86 1.14 -1.86 94.2 350 147 0.70 5 AAA Eastern Southeastern  5  5   74.7 -5
8 Phoebus 10 2 11.72 0.28 -1.72 83.5 540 135 0.80 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  9  3   91.9 -1
9 E.C. Glass 6 4 7.58 2.42 -1.58 66.1 220 144 0.60 5 AAA Northwest Western Valley  6  4   66.0 0
10 Yorktown 10 2 11.53 0.47 -1.53 79.9 398 122 0.77 5 AAA Northern National  7  3   76.3 -3
11 Petersburg 6 5 7.50 3.50 -1.50 71.9 236 178 0.57 5 AAA Central Central  6  4   68.2 0
12 Meadowbrook 8 4 9.49 2.51 -1.49 86.6 296 181 0.62 5 AAA Central Central  13  1   104.1 5
13 Colonial Forge 8 4 9.31 2.69 -1.31 81.2 312 197 0.61 5 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  7  4   73.1 -1
14 Woodside 6 4 7.20 2.80 -1.20 64.0 298 210 0.59 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  8  3   87.7 2
15 Norview 0 10 1.14 8.86 -1.14 27.9 125 267 0.32 5 AAA Eastern Eastern  4  6   54.7 4
16 Warwick 3 7 4.01 5.99 -1.01 49.6 231 268 0.46 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  4  6   67.1 1
17 Hampton 10 1 10.85 0.15 -0.85 83.5 373 76 0.83 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  12  1   103.4 2
18 Stafford 5 5 5.85 4.15 -0.85 64.7 268 236 0.53 5 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  3  7   44.1 -2
19 Potomac 5 5 5.82 4.18 -0.82 82.3 182 161 0.53 5 AAA Northwest Cardinal  6  5   83.8 1
20 Halifax County 0 9 0.78 8.22 -0.78 22.2 108 259 0.29 5 AAA Northwest Western Valley  2  8   29.2 2
21 Culpeper County 2 8 2.43 7.57 -0.43 48.8 147 224 0.40 5 AAA Northwest Cedar Run  3  7   52.5 1
22 Albemarle 6 5 6.19 4.81 -0.19 70.6 313 285 0.52 5 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  3  7   42.4 -3
23 Lake Taylor 8 3 8.17 2.83 -0.17 75.8 293 198 0.60 5 AAA Eastern Eastern  4  6   58.1 -4
24 Matoaca 5 6 5.12 5.88 -0.12 72.9 245 258 0.49 5 AAA I Southside  7  4   76.3 2
25 Green Run 0 10 0.09 9.91 -0.09 55.5 62 347 0.15 5 AAA Eastern Beach  0  10   53.8 0
26 John Marshall 0 10 0.08 9.92 -0.08 26.2 68 413 0.14 5 AAA Central Colonial  2  8   37.7 2
27 George Marshall 0 10 0.06 9.94 -0.06 28.4 41 277 0.13 5 AAA Northern Liberty  2  8   46.9 2
28 Dinwiddie 1 9 1.04 8.96 -0.04 45.9 185 410 0.31 5 AAA Central Central  2  8   49.3 1
29 Massaponax 13 1 13.04 0.96 -0.04 99.3 433 165 0.72 5 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  9  3   79.2 -4
30 Deep Run 1 9 0.97 9.03 0.03 26.7 146 333 0.30 5 AAA Central Colonial  5  5   53.1 4
31 Hopewell * 13 1 12.93 1.07 0.07 105.2 418 166 0.72 5 AAA Central Central  10  2   94.9 -3
32 Wakefield 1 9 0.92 9.08 0.08 36.6 149 348 0.30 5 AAA Northern National  0  10   36.3 -1
33 Booker T. Washington 6 4 5.86 4.14 0.14 70.8 207 182 0.53 5 AAA Eastern Eastern  5  6   70.3 -1
34 George Wythe(R) 6 4 5.79 4.21 0.21 68.4 286 254 0.53 5 AAA Central Dominion  0  9   25.8 -6
35 Langley 4 6 3.74 6.26 0.26 64.6 133 161 0.45 5 AAA Northern Liberty  6  5   80.6 2
36 Patrick Henry(R) 2 8 1.65 8.35 0.35 40.9 160 292 0.35 5 AAA Northwest Western Valley  2  8   37.9 0
37 Gloucester 1 9 0.58 9.42 0.42 35.0 99 278 0.26 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  1  9   47.4 0
38 Woodrow Wilson 5 5 4.46 5.54 0.54 65.3 192 208 0.48 5 AAA Eastern Eastern  6  4   70.8 1
39 McLean 1 9 0.45 9.55 0.55 36.5 85 263 0.24 5 AAA Northern Liberty  5  5   65.4 4
40 Hanover 1 9 0.43 9.57 0.57 32.0 110 347 0.24 5 AAA Central Capital  1  9   35.1 0
41 Thomas Jefferson(R) 2 7 0.83 8.17 1.17 35.6 152 355 0.30 5 AAA Central Colonial  3  7   41.4 1
42 Henrico 2 8 0.68 9.32 1.32 36.4 104 275 0.27 5 AAA Central Capital  5  6   58.8 3
43 Thomas Jefferson(A) 4 6 2.66 7.34 1.34 58.6 160 233 0.41 5 AAA Northern Concorde  8  3   83.7 4
44 Churchland 2 8 0.56 9.44 1.44 39.9 104 297 0.26 5 AAA Eastern Eastern  2  8   48.1 0
45 Menchville 2 8 0.50 9.50 1.50 38.4 134 400 0.25 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  0  10   42.0 -2
46 Norcom 2 8 0.48 9.52 1.52 41.1 93 282 0.25 5 AAA Eastern Eastern  3  7   58.1 1
47 Midlothian 2 8 0.47 9.53 1.53 52.1 72 220 0.25 5 AAA Central Dominion  6  4   67.0 4
48 Lakeland 2 8 0.46 9.54 1.54 47.6 84 258 0.25 5 AAA Eastern Southeastern  2  8   58.1 0
49 North Stafford 5 6 3.42 7.58 1.58 70.7 140 188 0.43 5 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  13  1   97.0 8
50 J.E.B. Stuart 2 8 0.41 9.59 1.59 39.8 98 315 0.24 5 AAA Northern National  3  7   55.0 1
51 South Lakes 5 5 3.30 6.70 1.70 70.6 153 199 0.43 5 AAA Northern Concorde  2  8   56.8 -3
52 Falls Church 4 6 2.19 7.81 1.81 52.7 150 240 0.38 5 AAA Northern National  3  7   54.5 -1
53 Heritage(NN) 4 6 1.88 8.12 2.12 53.9 139 239 0.37 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  4  6   67.4 0
54 Colonial Heights 3 7 0.87 9.13 2.13 50.2 124 296 0.30 5 AAA Central Central  2  8   45.4 -1
55 Salem(VB) 4 6 1.76 8.24 2.24 79.8 127 225 0.36 5 AAA Eastern Beach  1  9   59.9 -3
56 Nansemond River 3 7 0.72 9.28 2.28 60.0 108 279 0.28 5 AAA Eastern Southeastern  3  7   61.3 0
57 Washington-Lee 4 6 1.55 8.45 2.45 47.2 135 253 0.35 5 AAA Northern National  1  9   40.5 -3