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1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2003 Division 6 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W
ACT
L
Proj
W
Proj
L
ACT
vs
Proj
Diff
State
Rating
PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W
YR+1
L
YR+1
Rate

YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 Deep Creek 7 4 10.45 0.55 -3.45 82.2 366 123 0.75 6 AAA Eastern Southeastern  9  2   95.4 2
2 West Springfield 3 7 4.68 5.32 -1.68 70.8 249 261 0.49 6 AAA Northern Patriot  7  3   91.0 4
3 Thomas Dale 8 2 9.68 0.32 -1.68 93.0 229 65 0.78 6 AAA Central Central  5  5   72.0 -3
4 Mills Godwin 8 3 9.65 1.35 -1.65 81.0 323 156 0.67 6 AAA Central Colonial  6  4   68.6 -2
5 GW-Danville 4 6 5.48 4.52 -1.48 49.1 205 191 0.52 6 AAA Northwest Western Valley  9  2   71.3 5
6 Gar-Field 6 5 7.47 3.53 -1.47 87.9 210 159 0.57 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal  2  8   63.7 -4
7 Varina 10 2 11.41 0.59 -1.41 88.0 476 159 0.75 6 AAA Central Capital  10  1   86.1 0
8 Douglas Freeman 7 3 8.38 1.62 -1.38 68.1 283 154 0.65 6 AAA Central Colonial  7  3   67.4 0
9 R.E. Lee(S) 8 3 9.23 1.77 -1.23 86.5 286 155 0.65 6 AAA Northern Liberty  5  5   72.9 -3
10 L.C. Bird 10 3 11.12 1.88 -1.12 98.0 230 119 0.66 6 AAA Central Dominion  10  3   91.8 0
11 Centreville 7 3 8.09 1.91 -1.09 95.9 251 147 0.63 6 AAA Northern Concorde  7  4   93.3 0
12 Tallwood 5 5 6.07 3.93 -1.07 87.0 222 189 0.54 6 AAA Eastern Beach  7  3   96.4 2
13 Maury 4 6 5.07 4.93 -1.07 49.5 196 194 0.50 6 AAA Eastern Eastern  5  5   63.3 1
14 Highland Springs 9 2 10.03 0.97 -1.03 83.4 423 178 0.70 6 AAA Central Capital  9  2   79.4 0
15 First Colonial 7 3 7.94 2.06 -0.94 95.7 272 165 0.62 6 AAA Eastern Beach  6  4   90.4 -1
16 Stonewall Jackson(M) 2 8 2.89 7.11 -0.89 67.2 179 250 0.42 6 AAA Northwest Cedar Run  9  3   95.2 7
17 Franklin County 7 4 7.87 3.13 -0.87 73.9 314 223 0.58 6 AAA Northwest Western Valley  5  5   60.7 -2
18 James Robinson 11 1 11.86 0.14 -0.86 110.4 450 86 0.84 6 AAA Northern Patriot  13  1   112.0 2
19 Hermitage 9 1 9.85 0.15 -0.85 74.7 437 93 0.82 6 AAA Central Colonial  11  1   87.0 2
20 Patrick Henry(A) 7 3 7.82 2.18 -0.82 65.2 273 170 0.62 6 AAA Central Colonial  7  3   65.8 0
21 Landstown 13 1 13.77 0.23 -0.77 113.0 530 116 0.82 6 AAA Eastern Beach  14  0   120.2 1
22 Manchester 7 3 7.67 2.33 -0.67 84.2 261 168 0.61 6 AAA Central Dominion  8  2   82.5 1
23 Monacan 9 1 9.65 0.35 -0.65 94.3 325 95 0.77 6 AAA Central Dominion  3  7   48.2 -6
24 Osbourn Park 9 3 9.50 2.50 -0.50 98.0 272 166 0.62 6 AAA Northwest Cedar Run  3  7   69.2 -6
25 C.D. Hylton 12 1 12.43 0.57 -0.43 112.2 380 121 0.76 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal  10  3   100.0 -2
26 Kellam 6 4 6.34 3.66 -0.34 92.0 168 137 0.55 6 AAA Eastern Beach  8  2   101.4 2
27 Western Branch 11 1 11.27 0.73 -0.27 101.6 462 168 0.73 6 AAA Eastern Southeastern  8  2   90.4 -3
28 Granby 7 3 7.16 2.84 -0.16 68.9 214 152 0.58 6 AAA Eastern Eastern  7  4   83.1 0
29 Ocean Lakes 5 5 5.14 4.86 -0.14 85.9 149 146 0.51 6 AAA Eastern Beach  5  5   84.0 0
30 Bayside 1 9 1.13 8.87 -0.13 61.6 121 260 0.32 6 AAA Eastern Beach  2  8   66.0 1
31 James River(C) 0 10 0.06 9.94 -0.06 37.5 55 377 0.13 6 AAA Central Dominion  2  8   43.3 2
32 Oscar Smith 9 2 9.04 1.96 -0.04 95.6 363 206 0.64 6 AAA Eastern Southeastern  11  1   104.2 2
33 Denbigh 0 10 0.00 10.00 -0.00 29.1 7 430 0.02 6 AAA Eastern Peninsula  5  5   71.3 5
34 Lee-Davis 5 5 4.91 5.09 0.09 57.3 230 233 0.50 6 AAA Central Capital  7  3   70.8 2
35 Kempsville 5 5 4.85 5.15 0.15 87.0 136 139 0.49 6 AAA Eastern Beach  8  2   102.6 3
36 Annandale 6 4 5.83 4.17 0.17 88.5 179 158 0.53 6 AAA Northern Patriot  6  4   86.2 0
37 Prince George 2 8 1.75 8.25 0.25 53.0 121 215 0.36 6 AAA Central Central  0  10   37.1 -2
38 Westfield * 14 0 13.64 0.36 0.36 121.8 524 136 0.79 6 AAA Northern Concorde  9  2   103.0 -5
39 Herndon 7 4 6.58 4.42 0.42 95.2 277 239 0.54 6 AAA Northern Concorde  6  4   88.8 -1
40 T.C. Williams 1 9 0.58 9.42 0.42 55.9 109 306 0.26 6 AAA Northern Patriot  4  6   73.7 3
41 Armstrong 3 7 2.49 7.51 0.51 47.7 188 283 0.40 6 AAA Central Capital  3  7   39.7 0
42 Princess Anne 5 5 4.34 5.66 0.66 86.5 184 203 0.48 6 AAA Eastern Beach  3  7   72.1 -2
43 Forest Park 2 8 1.11 8.89 0.89 66.8 149 322 0.32 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal  3  7   69.3 1
44 J.R. Tucker 5 5 4.04 5.96 0.96 53.7 225 260 0.46 6 AAA Central Colonial  2  8   36.9 -3
45 Oakton 6 4 5.00 5.00 1.00 85.0 199 199 0.50 6 AAA Northern Concorde  10  2   105.2 4
46 Great Bridge 2 8 0.90 9.10 1.10 53.5 144 339 0.30 6 AAA Eastern Southeastern  3  7   62.2 1
47 Woodbridge 3 7 1.90 8.10 1.10 72.1 142 243 0.37 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal  7  4   89.7 4
48 West Potomac 3 7 1.85 8.15 1.15 71.8 131 227 0.37 6 AAA Northern Patriot  1  9   58.5 -2
49 Clover Hill 3 7 1.53 8.47 1.47 62.1 111 209 0.35 6 AAA Central Dominion  6  4   68.4 3
50 Hickory 6 4 4.35 5.65 1.65 70.9 236 260 0.48 6 AAA Eastern Southeastern  7  3   83.1 1
51 Lake Braddock 3 7 1.09 8.91 1.91 72.4 118 257 0.31 6 AAA Northern Patriot  0  10   56.5 -3
52 Frank Cox 7 3 4.90 5.10 2.10 98.3 198 201 0.50 6 AAA Eastern Beach  5  5   84.3 -2
53 Chantilly 5 5 2.89 7.11 2.11 88.6 162 226 0.42 6 AAA Northern Concorde  0  10   60.7 -5
54 Osbourn 4 6 1.85 8.15 2.15 76.7 119 206 0.37 6 AAA Northwest Cedar Run  3  7   69.2 -1
55 Brooke Point 4 6 1.76 8.24 2.24 58.3 159 282 0.36 6 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  4  6   57.5 0
56 Fairfax 4 6 1.57 8.43 2.43 64.2 102 190 0.35 6 AAA Northern Concorde  5  5   77.2 1
57 Bethel 7 3 4.36 5.64 2.64 74.5 200 220 0.48 6 AAA Eastern Peninsula  7  3   87.8 0
58 Atlee 6 4 3.33 6.67 2.67 61.4 147 190 0.44 6 AAA Central Capital  0  10   27.1 -6
59 Hayfield 6 4 2.24 7.76 3.76 91.3 130 206 0.39 6 AAA Northern Patriot  6  4   88.6 0