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1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2004 Division 1 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W		 ACT
L		 Proj
W		 Proj
L		 ACT
vs
Proj
Diff		 State
Rating		 PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W		 YR+1
L		 YR+1
Rate
YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 William Campbell 10 3 12.21 0.79 -2.21 59.1 528 192 0.73 1 A B Dogwood  11  3   63.1 1
2 Surry 4 6 6.16 3.84 -2.16 22.4 174 146 0.54 1 A A Tri-Rivers  10  3   44.4 6
3 J.I. Burton 10 4 11.90 2.10 -1.90 38.8 420 221 0.66 1 A D Lonesome Pine  12  2   54.0 2
4 Buffalo Gap 7 4 8.80 2.20 -1.80 39.7 202 121 0.63 1 A B Shenandoah  8  3   52.0 1
5 Mathews 5 6 6.49 4.51 -1.49 31.5 237 207 0.53 1 A A Tidewater  1  9   2.0 -4
6 Chincoteague 2 2 3.24 0.76 -1.24 -6.8 60 35 0.63 1 A A Eastern Shore-A  1  2   5.9 -1
7 Strasburg 7 4 8.08 2.92 -1.08 47.9 267 183 0.59 1 A B Bull Run  5  5   36.7 -2
8 Franklin * 13 1 13.93 0.07 -0.93 61.2 470 65 0.88 1 A A Tri-Rivers  10  1   49.4 -3
9 Twin Springs 7 5 7.56 4.44 -0.56 23.3 352 289 0.55 1 A D Cumberland  4  6   8.5 -3
10 Northwood 1 9 1.54 8.46 -0.54 -3.5 152 286 0.35 1 A C Hogoheegee  6  5   32.3 5
11 Sussex Central 11 1 11.39 0.61 -0.39 53.7 412 139 0.75 1 A A Tri-Rivers  7  5   32.6 -4
12 Parry McCluer 9 3 9.37 2.63 -0.37 35.9 237 148 0.62 1 A C Pioneer  2  8   7.7 -7
13 Ervinton 0 10 0.37 9.63 -0.37 -16.7 109 366 0.23 1 A D Cumberland  4  6   1.3 4
14 Riverheads 4 6 4.34 5.66 -0.34 24.9 203 224 0.48 1 A B Shenandoah  9  3   55.2 5
15 Bath County 6 5 6.32 4.68 -0.32 36.0 200 179 0.53 1 A C Pioneer  5  5   26.3 -1
16 Covington 4 6 4.13 5.87 -0.13 15.7 179 204 0.47 1 A C Pioneer  5  5   19.4 1
17 Craig County 5 5 5.12 4.88 -0.12 4.2 227 223 0.50 1 A C Pioneer  7  4   26.4 2
18 Stonewall Jackson(Q) 9 3 8.98 3.02 0.02 47.9 259 173 0.60 1 A B Shenandoah  8  3   56.9 -1
19 Rural Retreat 7 6 6.90 6.10 0.10 31.8 289 276 0.51 1 A C Hogoheegee  11  2   53.7 4
20 Colonial Beach 2 0 1.81 0.19 0.19 26.5 78 34 0.70 1 A A Northern Neck  4  1   36.0 2
21 Eastern Montgomery 3 7 2.68 7.32 0.32 6.1 182 264 0.41 1 A C Three Rivers  2  8   5.1 -1
22 Narrows 7 4 6.62 4.38 0.38 24.0 269 231 0.54 1 A C Mtn. Empire  9  3   42.0 2
23 Luray 2 8 1.48 8.52 0.52 18.0 114 218 0.34 1 A B Shenandoah  4  6   28.0 2
24 Amelia County 3 7 2.47 7.53 0.53 13.3 123 186 0.40 1 A B James River  3  7   17.9 0
25 Altavista 3 7 2.39 7.61 0.61 15.0 194 298 0.39 1 A B Dogwood  4  6   28.3 1
26 Auburn 2 8 1.36 8.64 0.64 0.1 154 305 0.34 1 A C Three Rivers  1  9   -0.2 -1
27 Galax 4 6 3.33 6.67 0.67 6.5 201 260 0.44 1 A C Mtn. Empire  3  7   6.3 -1
28 Cumberland 3 7 2.17 7.83 0.83 23.0 168 270 0.38 1 A B James River  4  6   20.8 1
29 Bland(RG) 2 8 0.91 9.09 1.09 -13.6 135 317 0.30 1 A C Mtn. Empire  4  6   7.8 2
30 King & Queen 3 7 1.89 8.11 1.11 10.4 122 209 0.37 1 A A Tidewater  0  10   -5.0 -3
31 West Point 2 8 0.74 9.26 1.26 -7.2 98 250 0.28 1 A A Tidewater  3  5   14.8 1
32 Holston 2 8 0.62 9.38 1.38 4.3 110 301 0.27 1 A C Hogoheegee  4  6   15.9 2
33 Page 2 8 0.59 9.41 1.41 13.7 114 317 0.26 1 A B Shenandoah  4  6   32.3 2
34 Middlesex 2 8 0.32 9.68 1.68 10.7 95 337 0.22 1 A A Tidewater  7  4   26.3 5
35 Charles City 3 7 1.17 8.83 1.83 10.4 98 207 0.32 1 A A Tri-Rivers  5  5   23.6 2
36 Castlewood 2 8 0.11 9.89 1.89 -2.2 58 304 0.16 1 A D Cumberland  3  7   -0.3 1
37 Hurley 4 7 1.76 9.24 2.24 2.9 143 264 0.35 1 A D Black Diamond  8  3   21.2 4
38 Rappahannock 4 7 1.65 9.35 2.35 22.4 119 226 0.34 1 A A Northern Neck  3  7   10.5 -1
39 Twin Valley 6 5 2.48 8.52 3.52 10.5 216 341 0.39 1 A D Black Diamond  2  8   -3.1 -4