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1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2004 Division 2 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W		 ACT
L		 Proj
W		 Proj
L		 ACT
vs
Proj
Diff		 State
Rating		 PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W		 YR+1
L		 YR+1
Rate
YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 Glenvar 5 5 8.04 1.96 -3.04 32.0 243 144 0.63 2 A C Three Rivers  9  2   45.0 4
2 King William 8 3 10.24 0.76 -2.24 41.4 344 131 0.72 2 A A Tidewater  11  1   47.5 3
3 George Mason 5 5 7.04 2.96 -2.04 37.8 200 145 0.58 2 A B Bull Run  7  3   47.3 2
4 Honaker 8 3 9.83 1.17 -1.83 41.7 365 166 0.69 2 A D Black Diamond  8  3   48.2 0
5 Thomas Walker 4 6 5.78 4.22 -1.78 -2.1 263 234 0.53 2 A D Cumberland  0  10   -20.8 -4
6 Patrick Henry(GS) 7 3 8.74 1.26 -1.74 33.7 254 124 0.67 2 A C Hogoheegee  3  7   17.0 -4
7 Essex 10 2 11.33 0.67 -1.33 53.6 379 133 0.74 2 A A Northern Neck  5  6   29.7 -5
8 Lancaster 7 3 8.32 1.68 -1.32 37.6 286 158 0.64 2 A A Northern Neck  8  3   39.2 1
9 Lebanon 10 2 11.25 0.75 -1.25 55.6 362 133 0.73 2 A C Hogoheegee  5  5   40.7 -5
10 Clarke County 5 5 6.20 3.80 -1.20 30.5 235 196 0.55 2 A B Bull Run  4  6   28.3 -1
11 Central(W) 8 3 9.02 1.98 -1.02 47.9 261 149 0.64 2 A II Northwestern  4  6   42.6 -4
12 Gate City 10 2 10.99 1.01 -0.99 57.4 390 161 0.71 2 A D Lonesome Pine  8  3   51.0 -2
13 George Wythe(W) 9 1 9.96 0.04 -0.96 50.2 381 47 0.89 2 A C Hogoheegee  10  2   59.0 1
14 Goochland 8 4 8.96 3.04 -0.96 44.7 264 177 0.60 2 A B James River  10  1   54.8 2
15 Floyd County 9 2 9.94 1.06 -0.94 52.1 273 119 0.70 2 A C Three Rivers  3  7   22.0 -6
16 James Monroe 7 4 7.91 3.09 -0.91 35.4 320 226 0.59 2 A I Battlefield  11  2   71.9 4
17 James River(B) 4 6 4.60 5.40 -0.60 11.4 178 189 0.49 2 A C Pioneer  0  10   -7.7 -4
18 Giles 10 3 10.57 2.43 -0.57 56.6 393 228 0.63 2 A C Three Rivers  13  1   70.6 3
19 Radford 4 6 4.32 5.68 -0.32 31.6 159 176 0.47 2 A C Three Rivers  5  5   32.6 1
20 Arcadia 1 9 0.90 9.10 0.10 5.4 172 405 0.30 2 A A Eastern Shore-A  0  9   -3.3 -1
21 Chatham 6 4 5.82 4.18 0.18 44.4 244 216 0.53 2 A B Dogwood  10  2   64.9 4
22 Northumberland 1 9 0.60 9.40 0.40 3.4 144 400 0.26 2 A A Northern Neck  1  9   1.5 0
23 Nelson County 5 5 4.56 5.44 0.44 40.5 177 189 0.48 2 A B Dogwood  4  6   36.5 -1
24 Rye Cove 8 3 7.50 3.50 0.50 31.8 281 212 0.57 2 A D Cumberland  7  4   27.1 -1
25 Manassas Park * 14 0 13.45 0.55 0.55 67.9 461 141 0.77 2 A B Bull Run  13  1   67.4 -1
26 Lunenburg 8 3 7.41 3.59 0.59 44.7 263 201 0.57 2 A B James River  3  7   18.9 -5
27 John Battle 2 8 1.39 8.61 0.61 9.1 158 310 0.34 2 A C Hogoheegee  0  10   3.2 -2
28 Northampton 4 6 3.22 6.78 0.78 28.7 186 245 0.43 2 A A Eastern Shore-A  4  6   16.4 0
29 Randolph-Henry 4 6 3.06 6.94 0.94 22.1 183 248 0.42 2 A B James River  3  7   21.6 -1
30 Fort Chiswell 4 6 2.96 7.04 1.04 11.0 235 324 0.42 2 A C Mtn. Empire  4  6   13.1 0
31 Windsor 3 7 1.87 8.13 1.13 22.4 193 333 0.37 2 A A Three Rivers  4  6   18.6 1
32 Wilson Memorial 2 8 0.86 9.14 1.14 8.2 105 252 0.29 2 A B Shenandoah  8  2   53.4 6
33 Washington & Lee 8 5 6.25 6.75 1.75 45.5 308 317 0.49 2 A A Northern Neck  11  2   53.0 3
34 Buckingham County 4 6 2.07 7.93 1.93 38.6 164 270 0.38 2 A B James River  4  6   21.8 0
35 Chilhowie 7 3 4.97 5.03 2.03 33.7 205 206 0.50 2 A C Hogoheegee  8  3   46.0 1
36 Madison County 4 6 1.97 8.03 2.03 33.8 149 251 0.37 2 A B Bull Run  2  8   15.7 -2
37 Grayson County 6 6 3.32 8.68 2.68 24.3 294 420 0.41 2 A C Mtn. Empire  4  6   28.4 -2