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1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2004 Division 4 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W		 ACT
L		 Proj
W		 Proj
L		 ACT
vs
Proj
Diff		 State
Rating		 PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W		 YR+1
L		 YR+1
Rate
YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 Courtland 6 5 8.80 2.20 -2.80 58.4 249 149 0.63 4 AA I Battlefield  9  3   72.1 3
2 Fauquier 4 6 6.79 3.21 -2.79 48.1 194 147 0.57 4 AA Northwest Northwestern  4  6   57.6 0
3 Turner Ashby 6 4 8.35 1.65 -2.35 60.5 266 146 0.65 4 AA II Valley  12  2   77.4 6
4 William Fleming 7 4 9.34 1.66 -2.34 67.5 296 156 0.65 4 AA III Blue Ridge  8  3   69.0 1
5 Bassett 9 3 10.69 1.31 -1.69 56.8 276 127 0.68 4 AA IV Piedmont  9  4   68.9 0
6 Broad Run 6 4 7.66 2.34 -1.66 60.6 253 163 0.61 4 AA II Dulles  1  9   30.2 -5
7 Grafton 10 3 11.53 1.47 -1.53 75.9 423 197 0.68 4 AA I Bay Rivers  9  2   65.5 -1
8 Loudoun Valley 7 3 8.41 1.59 -1.41 66.5 265 143 0.65 4 AA II Dulles  9  2   77.2 2
9 Park View(St) 8 2 9.31 0.69 -1.31 70.2 351 134 0.72 4 AA II Dulles  5  6   57.4 -3
10 Powhatan 9 2 10.25 0.75 -1.25 63.3 343 130 0.73 4 AA I Southside  12  2   77.0 3
11 Harrisonburg 12 2 13.17 0.83 -1.17 83.8 420 151 0.74 4 AA II Valley  11  1   79.3 -1
12 Magna Vista 4 6 5.17 4.83 -1.17 43.5 205 200 0.51 4 AA IV Piedmont  7  5   65.7 3
13 Carroll County 6 5 7.12 3.88 -1.12 39.9 273 218 0.56 4 AA IV Southwest  7  4   52.3 1
14 William Byrd 4 6 5.09 4.91 -1.09 54.7 224 221 0.50 4 AA III Blue Ridge  2  8   33.4 -2
15 Liberty(Beal) 10 1 10.91 0.09 -0.91 79.2 414 70 0.86 4 AA II Northwestern  8  2   70.7 -2
16 Heritage(Lyn) 6 4 6.86 3.14 -0.86 58.1 223 167 0.57 4 AA III Seminole  6  4   57.6 0
17 Orange 8 2 8.85 1.15 -0.85 56.6 339 159 0.68 4 AA II Jefferson  8  2   63.6 0
18 Richlands 11 2 11.77 1.23 -0.77 66.1 409 177 0.70 4 AA IV Southwest  13  1   76.3 2
19 Warren County 6 4 6.63 3.37 -0.63 54.1 230 179 0.56 4 AA II Northwestern  6  4   53.7 0
20 Jefferson Forest 6 4 6.59 3.41 -0.59 57.6 203 159 0.56 4 AA III Seminole  3  7   42.5 -3
21 Abingdon 2 8 2.54 7.46 -0.54 15.1 247 368 0.40 4 AA IV Highlands  3  7   21.8 1
22 Tabb 0 10 0.28 9.72 -0.28 22.8 103 384 0.21 4 AA I Bay Rivers  2  7   26.8 2
23 Liberty(Bed) 10 1 10.26 0.74 -0.26 82.1 288 109 0.73 4 AA III Seminole  11  2   76.3 1
24 Stone Bridge 11 1 11.25 0.75 -0.25 83.1 374 137 0.73 4 AA Northern Liberty  12  2   102.1 1
25 Lafayette 11 1 11.16 0.84 -0.16 81.2 489 188 0.72 4 AA I Bay Rivers  7  3   51.5 -4
26 Staunton River 0 10 0.07 9.93 -0.07 20.7 63 397 0.14 4 AA III Seminole  4  6   43.1 4
27 Spotsylvania 1 9 1.06 8.94 -0.06 24.2 110 242 0.31 4 AA I Battlefield  1  9   34.6 0
28 Chancellor 5 5 5.00 5.00 0.00 51.7 202 202 0.50 4 AA I Battlefield  4  6   53.7 -1
29 Salem * 13 1 12.92 1.08 0.08 95.2 444 177 0.71 4 AA IV River Ridge  14  0   91.0 1
30 Tunstall 3 7 2.88 7.12 0.12 31.7 183 256 0.42 4 AA IV Piedmont  3  7   39.3 0
31 Amherst County 10 2 9.58 2.42 0.42 81.8 336 202 0.62 4 AA III Seminole  10  2   78.9 0
32 Lee 1 9 0.50 9.50 0.50 11.7 154 458 0.25 4 AA IV Highlands  3  7   16.6 2
33 Charlottesville 3 7 2.49 7.51 0.51 34.3 218 328 0.40 4 AA II Jefferson  1  9   30.9 -2
34 Smithfield 1 9 0.40 9.60 0.60 26.6 113 365 0.24 4 AA I Bay Rivers  8  3   57.6 7
35 James Wood 1 9 0.33 9.67 0.67 32.3 104 362 0.22 4 AA II Northwestern  1  9   27.0 0
36 Caroline 1 9 0.32 9.68 0.68 17.1 98 346 0.22 4 AA I Battlefield  5  5   53.7 4
37 Jamestown 5 5 4.31 5.69 0.69 50.0 212 235 0.47 4 AA I Bay Rivers  2  8   19.8 -3
38 Sherando 8 2 7.24 2.76 0.76 76.5 203 142 0.59 4 AA II Northwestern  10  3   75.9 2
39 Louisa 8 3 7.21 3.79 0.79 61.3 349 275 0.56 4 AA II Jefferson  9  2   68.7 1
40 Spotswood 1 9 0.15 9.85 0.85 28.0 58 270 0.18 4 AA II Valley  3  7   32.4 2
41 Marion 3 7 2.13 7.87 0.87 19.4 161 261 0.38 4 AA IV Highlands  2  8   20.9 -1
42 Pulaski County 8 2 7.11 2.89 0.89 83.2 243 174 0.58 4 AA III River Ridge  5  6   64.4 -3
43 Riverbend 5 5 4.07 5.93 0.93 45.9 194 223 0.47 4 AA Northwest Commonwealth  5  5   53.7 0
44 Blacksburg 2 8 0.99 9.01 1.01 44.4 95 215 0.31 4 AA III River Ridge  2  8   41.5 0
45 Heritage(Le) 3 7 1.93 8.07 1.07 40.3 160 272 0.37 4 AA II Dulles  7  3   55.2 4
46 King George 2 8 0.63 9.37 1.37 24.2 104 282 0.27 4 AA I Battlefield  0  10   19.8 -2
47 Northside 2 8 0.56 9.44 1.44 44.7 96 273 0.26 4 AA III Blue Ridge  4  6   47.4 2
48 Patrick County 3 7 1.08 8.92 1.92 22.4 103 225 0.31 4 AA IV Piedmont  4  6   33.6 1