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1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2004 Division 5 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W
ACT
L
Proj
W
Proj
L
ACT
vs
Proj
Diff
State
Rating
PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W
YR+1
L
YR+1
Rate

YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 Indian River 5 5 7.97 2.03 -2.97 74.7 211 127 0.62 5 AAA Eastern Southeastern  6  4   87.6 1
2 Petersburg 6 4 8.97 1.03 -2.97 68.2 265 119 0.69 5 AAA Central Central  4  6   58.7 -2
3 Mount Vernon 6 4 8.73 1.27 -2.73 73.1 225 110 0.67 5 AAA Northern National  1  9   29.1 -5
4 Phoebus 9 3 11.55 0.45 -2.55 91.9 519 156 0.77 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  11  1   104.0 2
5 Woodrow Wilson 6 4 8.33 1.67 -2.33 70.8 205 113 0.64 5 AAA Eastern Eastern  0  10   34.3 -6
6 Huguenot 4 6 5.94 4.06 -1.94 54.5 206 179 0.54 5 AAA Central Dominion  8  4   76.4 4
7 Patrick Henry(R) 2 8 3.82 6.18 -1.82 37.9 215 257 0.46 5 AAA Northwest Western Valley  3  7   57.9 1
8 James Madison 5 5 6.82 3.18 -1.82 69.4 228 172 0.57 5 AAA Northern Liberty  7  4   85.5 2
9 Potomac 6 5 7.72 3.28 -1.72 83.8 298 217 0.58 5 AAA Northwest Cardinal  5  5   69.8 -1
10 Yorktown 7 3 8.57 1.43 -1.57 76.3 264 136 0.66 5 AAA Northern National  7  3   62.6 0
11 E.C. Glass 6 4 7.53 2.47 -1.53 66.0 213 141 0.60 5 AAA Northwest Western Valley  7  5   76.3 1
12 Henrico 5 6 6.39 4.61 -1.39 58.8 211 187 0.53 5 AAA Central Capital  6  4   67.2 1
13 Massaponax 9 3 10.30 1.70 -1.30 79.2 388 199 0.66 5 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  12  1   90.3 3
14 W.T. Woodson 11 2 12.23 0.77 -1.23 95.5 471 169 0.74 5 AAA Northern Liberty  3  7   62.5 -8
15 Thomas Jefferson(A) 8 3 9.23 1.77 -1.23 83.7 306 166 0.65 5 AAA Northern Concorde  5  5   69.8 -3
16 Matoaca 7 4 7.89 3.11 -0.89 76.3 298 211 0.59 5 AAA Central Central  11  2   96.0 4
17 Hampton 12 1 12.83 0.17 -0.83 103.4 508 103 0.83 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  13  1   111.4 1
18 Lake Taylor 4 6 4.81 5.19 -0.81 58.1 176 181 0.49 5 AAA Eastern Eastern  9  2   86.9 5
19 Salem(VB) 1 9 1.78 8.22 -0.78 59.9 138 243 0.36 5 AAA Eastern Beach  8  3   91.7 7
20 Norview 4 6 4.60 5.40 -0.60 54.7 149 158 0.49 5 AAA Eastern Eastern  1  9   40.1 -3
21 Booker T. Washington 5 6 5.60 5.40 -0.60 70.3 220 217 0.50 5 AAA Eastern Eastern  4  6   63.8 -1
22 Deep Run 5 5 5.59 4.41 -0.59 53.1 226 207 0.52 5 AAA Central Colonial  8  3   72.1 3
23 Falls Church 3 7 3.51 6.49 -0.51 54.5 208 261 0.44 5 AAA Northern National  6  4   59.3 3
24 Warwick 4 6 4.29 5.71 -0.29 67.1 189 210 0.47 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  6  4   83.8 2
25 Thomas Edison 9 3 9.27 2.73 -0.27 87.8 343 218 0.61 5 AAA Northern National  10  2   80.5 1
26 Albemarle 3 7 3.27 6.73 -0.27 42.4 248 324 0.43 5 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  2  8   37.4 -1
27 Langley 6 5 6.27 4.73 -0.27 80.6 253 228 0.53 5 AAA Northern Liberty  4  6   68.3 -2
28 Hopewell 10 2 10.22 1.78 -0.22 94.9 283 148 0.66 5 AAA Central Central  2  8   51.6 -8
29 Colonial Forge 7 4 7.16 3.84 -0.16 73.1 218 173 0.56 5 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  7  3   64.4 0
30 Green Run 0 10 0.11 9.89 -0.11 53.8 72 387 0.16 5 AAA Eastern Beach  1  9   50.3 1
31 George Wythe(R) 0 9 0.08 8.92 -0.08 25.8 53 301 0.15 5 AAA Central Dominion  0  10   32.2 0
32 North Stafford 13 1 13.03 0.97 -0.03 97.0 398 152 0.72 5 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  7  3   72.4 -6
33 Menchville 0 10 0.01 9.99 -0.01 42.0 29 403 0.07 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  0  10   49.3 0
34 Wakefield 0 10 0.01 9.99 -0.01 36.3 32 460 0.07 5 AAA Northern National  1  9   26.4 1
35 Meadowbrook * 13 1 12.96 1.04 0.04 104.1 415 163 0.72 5 AAA Central Central  10  2   94.1 -3
36 Washington-Lee 1 9 0.45 9.55 0.55 40.5 87 270 0.24 5 AAA Northern National  3  6   44.7 2
37 Churchland 2 8 1.42 8.58 0.58 48.1 134 261 0.34 5 AAA Eastern Eastern  4  6   58.5 2
38 Halifax County 2 8 1.31 8.69 0.69 29.2 146 294 0.33 5 AAA Northwest Western Valley  8  3   80.7 6
39 Hanover 1 9 0.27 9.73 0.73 35.1 81 304 0.21 5 AAA Central Capital  0  10   32.8 -1
40 Colonial Heights 2 8 1.21 8.79 0.79 45.4 117 244 0.32 5 AAA Central Central  7  4   70.3 5
41 Stafford 3 7 2.20 7.80 0.80 44.1 201 321 0.39 5 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  4  6   54.9 1
42 Gloucester 1 9 0.20 9.80 0.80 47.4 79 333 0.19 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  5  5   75.5 4
43 McLean 5 5 4.16 5.84 0.84 65.4 187 212 0.47 5 AAA Northern Liberty  3  7   59.0 -2
44 Lakeland 2 8 1.09 8.91 0.91 58.1 106 231 0.31 5 AAA Eastern Southeastern  0  10   45.2 -2
45 South Lakes 2 8 1.02 8.98 0.98 56.8 141 315 0.31 5 AAA Northern Liberty  3  7   64.1 1
46 Woodside 8 3 6.83 4.17 1.17 87.7 312 260 0.55 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  3  7   64.9 -5
47 Thomas Jefferson(R) 3 7 1.70 8.30 1.30 41.4 208 374 0.36 5 AAA Central Colonial  0  10   28.1 -3
48 Kecoughtan 5 5 3.70 6.30 1.30 72.1 170 207 0.45 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  7  3   89.6 2
49 Dinwiddie 2 8 0.50 9.50 1.50 49.3 115 342 0.25 5 AAA Central Central  1  9   44.3 -1
50 George Marshall 2 8 0.13 9.87 1.87 46.9 67 335 0.17 5 AAA Northern Liberty  5  5   61.1 3
51 Heritage(NN) 4 6 2.12 7.88 1.88 67.4 152 247 0.38 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  5  5   79.7 1
52 Nansemond River 3 7 1.12 8.88 1.88 61.3 112 241 0.32 5 AAA Eastern Southeastern  3  7   61.8 0
53 John Marshall 2 8 0.08 9.92 1.92 37.7 48 286 0.14 5 AAA Central Colonial  4  6   53.8 2
54 Culpeper County 3 7 1.06 8.94 1.94 52.5 104 229 0.31 5 AAA Northwest Cedar Run  2  8   48.3 -1
55 J.E.B. Stuart 3 7 0.72 9.28 2.28 55.0 120 310 0.28 5 AAA Northern National  1  9   28.9 -2
56 Norcom 3 7 0.71 9.29 2.29 58.1 87 225 0.28 5 AAA Eastern Eastern  4  6   56.8 1
57 Midlothian 6 4 3.05 6.95 2.95 67.0 146 198 0.42 5 AAA Central Dominion  4  6   55.7 -2