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1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2004 Division 6 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W
ACT
L
Proj
W
Proj
L
ACT
vs
Proj
Diff
State
Rating
PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W
YR+1
L
YR+1
Rate

YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 Thomas Dale 5 5 7.90 2.10 -2.90 72.0 188 115 0.62 6 AAA Central Central  7  3   86.2 2
2 Centreville 7 4 9.65 1.35 -2.65 93.3 321 155 0.67 6 AAA Northern Concorde  8  2   100.4 1
3 Maury 5 5 7.55 2.45 -2.55 63.3 205 135 0.60 6 AAA Eastern Eastern  9  2   86.5 4
4 Herndon 6 4 8.39 1.61 -2.39 88.8 249 135 0.65 6 AAA Northern Concorde  6  4   90.1 0
5 Franklin County 5 5 7.05 2.95 -2.05 60.7 265 192 0.58 6 AAA Northwest Western Valley  8  3   82.9 3
6 Frank Cox 5 5 6.98 3.02 -1.98 84.3 176 129 0.58 6 AAA Eastern Beach  5  5   74.6 0
7 L.C. Bird 10 3 11.85 1.15 -1.85 91.8 366 154 0.70 6 AAA Central Dominion  10  3   96.3 0
8 Patrick Henry(A) 7 3 8.84 1.16 -1.84 65.8 405 191 0.68 6 AAA Central Colonial  10  1   82.8 3
9 Western Branch 8 2 9.71 0.29 -1.71 90.4 316 86 0.79 6 AAA Eastern Southeastern  7  3   85.8 -1
10 Fairfax 5 5 6.61 3.39 -1.61 77.2 196 153 0.56 6 AAA Northern Concorde  1  9   57.6 -4
11 Manchester 8 2 9.46 0.54 -1.46 82.5 326 113 0.74 6 AAA Central Dominion  5  5   72.6 -3
12 Mills Godwin 6 4 7.31 2.69 -1.31 68.6 326 225 0.59 6 AAA Central Colonial  6  4   70.2 0
13 Ocean Lakes 5 5 6.26 3.74 -1.26 84.0 224 185 0.55 6 AAA Eastern Beach  6  4   80.7 1
14 Hickory 7 3 8.21 1.79 -1.21 83.1 264 150 0.64 6 AAA Eastern Southeastern  7  3   86.3 0
15 Oakton 10 2 10.98 1.02 -0.98 105.2 366 152 0.71 6 AAA Northern Concorde  12  2   112.0 2
16 Highland Springs 9 2 9.94 1.06 -0.94 79.4 396 173 0.70 6 AAA Central Capital  8  3   79.8 -1
17 Woodbridge 7 4 7.82 3.18 -0.82 89.7 226 162 0.58 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal  8  3   83.8 1
18 Varina 10 1 10.81 0.19 -0.81 86.1 539 120 0.82 6 AAA Central Capital  9  1   87.1 -1
19 Kellam 8 2 8.70 1.30 -0.70 101.4 293 145 0.67 6 AAA Eastern Beach  8  3   91.7 0
20 Bethel 7 3 7.69 2.31 -0.69 87.8 275 176 0.61 6 AAA Eastern Peninsula  4  6   71.4 -3
21 Deep Creek 9 2 9.64 1.36 -0.64 95.4 349 169 0.67 6 AAA Eastern Southeastern  8  2   91.9 -1
22 Kempsville 8 2 8.58 1.42 -0.58 102.6 245 126 0.66 6 AAA Eastern Beach  8  2   91.7 0
23 Oscar Smith 11 1 11.55 0.45 -0.55 104.2 463 139 0.77 6 AAA Eastern Southeastern  11  1   103.9 0
24 Chantilly 0 10 0.53 9.47 -0.53 60.7 93 270 0.26 6 AAA Northern Concorde  4  6   81.5 4
25 C.D. Hylton 10 3 10.53 2.47 -0.53 100.0 356 208 0.63 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal  12  1   96.0 2
26 James Robinson 13 1 13.53 0.47 -0.53 112.0 489 141 0.78 6 AAA Northern Patriot  9  2   105.9 -4
27 Hermitage 11 1 11.39 0.61 -0.39 87.0 456 154 0.75 6 AAA Central Colonial  7  3   72.0 -4
28 Prince George 0 10 0.35 9.65 -0.35 37.1 98 336 0.23 6 AAA Central Central  3  7   55.6 3
29 Brooke Point 4 6 4.30 5.70 -0.30 57.5 199 221 0.47 6 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  7  4   72.6 3
30 Lake Braddock 0 10 0.28 9.72 -0.28 56.5 73 272 0.21 6 AAA Northern Patriot  6  4   77.2 6
31 Osbourn 3 7 3.27 6.73 -0.27 69.2 153 200 0.43 6 AAA Northwest Cedar Run  10  2   89.1 7
32 Lee-Davis 7 3 7.07 2.93 -0.07 70.8 313 226 0.58 6 AAA Central Capital  1  9   38.9 -6
33 GW-Danville 9 2 9.06 1.94 -0.06 71.3 310 175 0.64 6 AAA Northwest Western Valley  5  5   62.4 -4
34 Atlee 0 10 0.05 9.95 -0.05 27.1 56 385 0.13 6 AAA Central Capital  3  7   46.5 3
35 Bayside 2 8 2.02 7.98 -0.02 66.0 157 261 0.38 6 AAA Eastern Beach  2  8   56.5 0
36 Hayfield 6 4 6.01 3.99 -0.01 88.6 263 226 0.54 6 AAA Northern Patriot  3  7   64.2 -3
37 Kings Fork 0 10 0.00 10.00 0.00 42.4 0 584 0.00 6 AAA Eastern Southeastern  3  7   57.2 3
38 Douglas Freeman 7 3 6.99 3.01 0.01 67.4 276 202 0.58 6 AAA Central Colonial  5  5   60.7 -2
39 Westfield 9 2 8.91 2.09 0.09 103.0 318 186 0.63 6 AAA Northern Concorde  10  2   108.8 1
40 West Springfield 7 3 6.58 3.42 0.42 91.0 227 178 0.56 6 AAA Northern Patriot  5  5   69.6 -2
41 Granby 7 4 6.55 4.45 0.45 83.1 255 221 0.54 6 AAA Eastern Eastern  4  6   62.1 -3
42 Annandale 6 4 5.54 4.46 0.46 86.2 248 229 0.52 6 AAA Northern Patriot  6  5   81.1 0
43 West Potomac 1 9 0.46 9.54 0.54 58.5 109 335 0.25 6 AAA Northern Patriot  4  6   59.3 3
44 Landstown * 14 0 13.42 0.58 0.58 120.2 603 188 0.76 6 AAA Eastern Beach  13  1   109.0 -1
45 Clover Hill 6 4 5.41 4.59 0.59 68.4 219 206 0.52 6 AAA Central Dominion  8  2   79.8 2
46 Osbourn Park 3 7 2.26 7.74 0.74 69.2 140 221 0.39 6 AAA Northwest Cedar Run  8  2   82.0 5
47 Great Bridge 3 7 2.25 7.75 0.75 62.2 177 280 0.39 6 AAA Eastern Southeastern  4  6   69.7 1
48 Tallwood 7 3 6.21 3.79 0.79 96.4 185 154 0.55 6 AAA Eastern Beach  2  8   56.5 -5
49 Gar-Field 2 8 1.15 8.85 0.85 63.7 95 202 0.32 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal  2  8   49.1 0
50 R.E. Lee(S) 5 5 4.14 5.86 0.86 72.9 182 207 0.47 6 AAA Northern Liberty  6  4   77.3 1
51 J.R. Tucker 2 8 0.94 9.06 1.06 36.9 135 313 0.30 6 AAA Central Colonial  1  9   36.6 -1
52 First Colonial 6 4 4.77 5.23 1.23 90.4 173 179 0.49 6 AAA Eastern Beach  3  7   62.5 -3
53 T.C. Williams 4 6 2.54 7.46 1.46 73.7 112 167 0.40 6 AAA Northern Patriot  4  6   59.5 0
54 Forest Park 3 7 1.52 8.48 1.48 69.3 154 291 0.35 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal  3  7   56.1 0
55 Stonewall Jackson(M) 9 3 7.34 4.66 1.66 95.2 322 272 0.54 6 AAA Northwest Cedar Run  5  5   66.9 -4
56 James River(C) 2 8 0.26 9.74 1.74 43.3 81 310 0.21 6 AAA Central Dominion  5  5   65.3 3
57 Princess Anne 3 7 1.22 8.78 1.78 72.1 161 334 0.33 6 AAA Eastern Beach  2  8   56.5 -1
58 Monacan 3 7 1.17 8.83 1.83 48.2 155 328 0.32 6 AAA Central Dominion  2  8   45.5 -1
59 Armstrong 3 7 0.59 9.41 2.41 39.7 109 303 0.26 6 AAA Central Capital  5  5   53.6 2
60 Denbigh 5 5 2.44 7.56 2.56 71.3 175 266 0.40 6 AAA Eastern Peninsula  3  7   65.0 -2