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1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2005 Division 1 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W		 ACT
L		 Proj
W		 Proj
L		 ACT
vs
Proj
Diff		 State
Rating		 PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W		 YR+1
L		 YR+1
Rate
YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 William Campbell * 11 3 13.47 0.53 -2.47 63.1 486 147 0.77 1 A B Dogwood  9  3   63.4 -2
2 Surry 10 3 12.00 1.00 -2.00 44.4 341 136 0.71 1 A A Tri-Rivers  7  5   34.1 -3
3 Craig County 7 4 8.95 2.05 -1.95 26.4 292 169 0.63 1 A C Pioneer  0  10   -23.6 -7
4 Riverheads 9 3 10.56 1.44 -1.56 55.2 310 148 0.68 1 A B Shenandoah  13  1   65.8 4
5 J.I. Burton 12 2 13.49 0.51 -1.49 54.0 378 112 0.77 1 A D Lonesome Pine  13  1   55.8 1
6 Cumberland 4 6 5.38 4.62 -1.38 20.8 236 223 0.51 1 A B James River  4  6   22.9 0
7 Rural Retreat 11 2 12.26 0.74 -1.26 53.7 452 160 0.74 1 A C Hogoheegee  9  4   31.7 -2
8 Twin Springs 4 6 5.24 4.76 -1.24 8.5 288 278 0.51 1 A D Cumberland  1  9   -15.9 -3
9 Bland(RG) 4 6 4.97 5.03 -0.97 7.8 210 211 0.50 1 A C Mtn. Empire  6  4   3.1 2
10 Buffalo Gap 8 3 8.82 2.18 -0.82 52.0 213 127 0.63 1 A B Shenandoah  6  4   40.1 -2
11 Rye Cove 7 4 7.69 3.31 -0.69 27.1 294 215 0.58 1 A D Cumberland  4  6   11.8 -3
12 Colonial Beach 4 1 4.62 0.38 -0.62 36.0 144 57 0.72 1 A A Northern Neck  4  0   40.4 0
13 Middlesex 7 4 7.59 3.41 -0.59 26.3 242 180 0.57 1 A A Tidewater  6  5   22.4 -1
14 Castlewood 3 7 3.43 6.57 -0.43 -0.3 205 261 0.44 1 A D Cumberland  7  4   19.4 4
15 Thomas Walker 0 10 0.29 9.71 -0.29 -20.8 124 457 0.21 1 A D Cumberland  2  8   -4.3 2
16 Covington 5 5 5.19 4.81 -0.19 19.4 216 210 0.51 1 A C Pioneer  5  6   14.3 0
17 Sussex Central 7 5 7.17 4.83 -0.17 32.6 338 292 0.54 1 A A Tri-Rivers  10  3   45.7 3
18 Northwood 6 5 6.13 4.87 -0.13 32.3 353 324 0.52 1 A C Hogoheegee  5  6   14.9 -1
19 Narrows 9 3 9.12 2.88 -0.12 42.0 331 216 0.61 1 A C Mtn. Empire  3  7   -3.6 -6
20 Galax 3 7 3.05 6.95 -0.05 6.3 191 259 0.42 1 A C Mtn. Empire  4  6   6.0 1
21 Twin Valley 2 8 2.05 7.95 -0.05 -3.1 190 314 0.38 1 A D Black Diamond  3  7   -7.3 1
22 Franklin 10 1 10.03 0.97 -0.03 49.4 323 136 0.70 1 A A Tri-Rivers  7  4   34.1 -3
23 King & Queen 0 10 0.03 9.97 -0.03 -5.0 43 381 0.10 1 A A Tidewater  2  8   7.3 2
24 Northumberland 1 9 0.98 9.02 0.02 1.5 144 328 0.31 1 A A Northern Neck  0  10   -6.5 -1
25 West Point 3 5 2.79 5.21 0.21 14.8 162 204 0.44 1 A A Tidewater  2  8   0.8 -1
26 Page 4 6 3.75 6.25 0.25 32.3 177 214 0.45 1 A B Shenandoah  3  7   19.7 -1
27 Stonewall Jackson(Q) 8 3 7.46 3.54 0.54 56.9 303 230 0.57 1 A B Shenandoah  7  4   45.4 -1
28 Luray 4 6 3.39 6.61 0.61 28.0 182 233 0.44 1 A B Shenandoah  7  3   44.7 3
29 Mathews 1 9 0.33 9.67 0.67 2.0 90 315 0.22 1 A A Tidewater  2  8   6.8 1
30 Chincoteague 1 2 0.21 2.79 0.79 5.9 24 62 0.28 1 A A Eastern Shore-A  1  3   -21.7 0
31 Auburn 1 9 0.17 9.83 0.83 -0.2 65 290 0.18 1 A C Three Rivers  1  9   -9.6 0
32 Strasburg 5 5 3.88 6.12 1.12 36.7 213 252 0.46 1 A B Bull Run  3  6   21.4 -2
33 Lunenburg 3 7 1.82 8.18 1.18 18.9 183 319 0.36 1 A B James River  7  4   43.1 4
34 Parry McCluer 2 8 0.70 9.30 1.30 7.7 111 290 0.28 1 A C Pioneer  3  7   9.2 1
35 Rappahannock 3 7 1.67 8.33 1.33 10.5 154 279 0.36 1 A A Northern Neck  5  5   23.5 2
36 Hurley 8 3 6.60 4.40 1.40 21.2 316 272 0.54 1 A D Black Diamond  1  9   -19.7 -7
37 Eastern Montgomery 2 8 0.55 9.45 1.45 5.1 108 309 0.26 1 A C Three Rivers  4  6   10.7 2
38 Charles City 5 5 3.39 6.61 1.61 23.6 186 238 0.44 1 A A Tri-Rivers  2  7   1.2 -3
39 Holston 4 6 2.21 7.79 1.79 15.9 188 300 0.39 1 A C Hogoheegee  1  9   -10.6 -3
40 Amelia County 3 7 1.11 8.89 1.89 17.9 142 307 0.32 1 A B James River  1  9   11.2 -2
41 Bath County 5 5 3.02 6.98 1.98 26.3 148 202 0.42 1 A C Pioneer  5  7   23.9 0
42 Ervinton 4 6 1.96 8.04 2.04 1.3 204 344 0.37 1 A D Cumberland  7  4   15.3 3
43 Altavista 4 6 1.70 8.30 2.30 28.3 198 356 0.36 1 A B Dogwood  2  8   17.2 -2