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1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2005 Division 2 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W
ACT
L
Proj
W
Proj
L
ACT
vs
Proj
Diff
State
Rating
PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W
YR+1
L
YR+1
Rate

YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 Essex 5 6 8.00 3.00 -3.00 29.7 305 212 0.59 2 A A Northern Neck  12  1   63.3 7
2 George Mason 7 3 9.10 0.90 -2.10 47.3 356 151 0.70 2 A B Bull Run  6  5   39.0 -1
3 Glenvar 9 2 10.94 0.06 -1.94 45.0 408 61 0.87 2 A C Three Rivers  9  1   44.3 0
4 Clarke County 4 6 5.19 4.81 -1.19 28.3 248 241 0.51 2 A B Bull Run  2  8   14.3 -2
5 Lancaster 8 3 9.17 1.83 -1.17 39.2 380 209 0.65 2 A A Northern Neck  7  4   32.6 -1
6 Nelson County 4 6 4.81 5.19 -0.81 36.5 244 251 0.49 2 A B Dogwood  2  8   17.0 -2
7 Goochland 10 1 10.77 0.23 -0.77 54.8 417 101 0.81 2 A B James River  14  0   65.9 4
8 Washington & Lee 11 2 11.76 1.24 -0.76 53.0 414 180 0.70 2 A A Northern Neck  6  5   37.6 -5
9 Chatham 10 2 10.72 1.28 -0.72 64.9 479 218 0.69 2 A B Dogwood  6  4   43.2 -4
10 George Wythe(W) 10 2 10.66 1.34 -0.66 59.0 306 142 0.68 2 A C Hogoheegee  6  4   28.7 -4
11 James River(B) 0 10 0.66 9.34 -0.66 -7.7 132 353 0.27 2 A C Pioneer  6  5   25.3 6
12 John Battle 0 10 0.65 9.35 -0.65 3.2 194 521 0.27 2 A C Hogoheegee  2  8   2.4 2
13 Grayson County 4 6 4.61 5.39 -0.61 28.4 250 265 0.49 2 A C Mtn. Empire  6  5   27.5 2
14 Honaker 8 3 8.51 2.49 -0.51 48.2 334 212 0.61 2 A D Black Diamond  6  5   28.9 -2
15 Gate City 8 3 8.47 2.53 -0.47 51.0 308 197 0.61 2 A D Lonesome Pine  4  6   26.3 -4
16 Wilson Memorial 8 2 8.46 1.54 -0.46 53.4 269 143 0.65 2 A B Shenandoah  7  5   40.0 -1
17 Randolph-Henry 3 7 3.43 6.57 -0.43 21.6 191 243 0.44 2 A B James River  6  4   39.9 3
18 Lebanon 5 5 5.26 4.74 -0.26 40.7 234 225 0.51 2 A C Hogoheegee  9  3   44.8 4
19 Arcadia 0 9 0.25 8.75 -0.25 -3.3 99 372 0.21 2 A A Eastern Shore-A  1  8   6.8 1
20 Manassas Park 13 1 13.11 0.89 -0.11 67.4 454 168 0.73 2 A B Bull Run  5  5   32.7 -8
21 Giles * 13 1 13.08 0.92 -0.08 70.6 473 177 0.73 2 A C Three Rivers  12  2   59.6 -1
22 Gretna 10 1 10.05 0.95 -0.05 70.0 444 185 0.71 2 A B Dogwood  10  2   57.4 0
23 Madison County 2 8 1.87 8.13 0.13 15.7 201 346 0.37 2 A B Bull Run  6  4   32.4 4
24 Chilhowie 8 3 7.87 3.13 0.13 46.0 308 219 0.58 2 A C Hogoheegee  6  4   21.1 -2
25 Northampton 4 6 3.81 6.19 0.19 16.4 218 261 0.46 2 A A Eastern Shore-A  3  6   22.9 -1
26 Dan River 3 7 2.69 7.31 0.31 31.2 201 291 0.41 2 A IV Dogwood  1  9   15.9 -2
27 Fort Chiswell 4 6 3.60 6.40 0.40 13.1 207 256 0.45 2 A C Mtn. Empire  5  5   11.8 1
28 King William 11 1 10.58 1.42 0.42 47.5 394 187 0.68 2 A A Tidewater  10  2   46.6 -1
29 Radford 5 5 4.58 5.42 0.42 32.6 156 166 0.48 2 A C Three Rivers  5  5   30.2 0
30 Windsor 4 6 3.45 6.55 0.55 18.6 217 275 0.44 2 A A Three Rivers  3  7   3.4 -1
31 Patrick Henry(GS) 3 7 2.45 7.55 0.55 17.0 178 270 0.40 2 A C Hogoheegee  2  8   1.3 -1
32 Floyd County 3 7 1.86 8.14 1.14 22.0 158 273 0.37 2 A C Three Rivers  5  5   33.6 2
33 Buckingham County 4 6 2.73 7.27 1.27 21.8 174 250 0.41 2 A B James River  2  8   12.1 -2