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1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2005 Division 3 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W		 ACT
L		 Proj
W		 Proj
L		 ACT
vs
Proj
Diff		 State
Rating		 PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W		 YR+1
L		 YR+1
Rate
YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 R.E. Lee(ST) 7 4 10.14 0.86 -3.14 62.4 262 105 0.71 3 AA II Valley  10  2   67.3 3
2 Hidden Valley 6 4 8.93 1.07 -2.93 54.8 268 122 0.69 3 AA III River Ridge  10  3   69.4 4
3 Rockbridge County 6 5 8.83 2.17 -2.83 56.2 308 183 0.63 3 AA II Valley  9  5   67.3 3
4 Bruton 4 5 5.98 3.02 -1.98 36.9 175 136 0.56 3 AA I Bay Rivers  4  6   41.3 0
5 Christiansburg 6 5 7.64 3.36 -1.64 54.4 298 220 0.58 3 AA III River Ridge  7  5   56.9 1
6 Graham 8 3 9.45 1.55 -1.45 66.2 295 151 0.66 3 AA IV Southwest  7  5   51.4 -1
7 Brookville 5 6 6.38 4.62 -1.38 53.6 221 196 0.53 3 AA III Seminole  5  6   51.9 0
8 Turner Ashby * 12 2 13.12 0.88 -1.12 77.4 435 160 0.73 3 AA II Valley  5  5   47.9 -7
9 Virginia 4 7 5.12 5.88 -1.12 36.3 244 257 0.49 3 AA IV Highlands  5  6   38.3 1
10 York 7 4 8.03 2.97 -1.03 51.7 360 249 0.59 3 AA I Bay Rivers  2  8   24.9 -5
11 Lord Botetourt 1 9 1.96 8.04 -0.96 26.5 186 314 0.37 3 AA III Blue Ridge  5  6   51.5 4
12 Tazewell 6 4 6.95 3.05 -0.95 50.8 224 165 0.58 3 AA IV Southwest  8  3   55.1 2
13 Richlands 13 1 13.82 0.18 -0.82 76.3 461 92 0.83 3 AA IV Southwest  14  0   75.7 1
14 Handley 10 2 10.80 1.20 -0.80 76.0 363 161 0.69 3 AA II Northwestern  7  4   64.6 -3
15 Liberty(Bed) 11 2 11.64 1.36 -0.64 76.3 379 171 0.69 3 AA III Seminole  5  5   52.5 -6
16 Cave Spring 10 2 10.36 1.64 -0.36 72.7 305 154 0.66 3 AA III River Ridge  2  8   31.6 -8
17 Nandua 7 3 7.10 2.90 -0.10 32.3 283 203 0.58 3 AA I Eastern Shore-AA  7  2   44.1 0
18 Stuarts Draft 0 10 0.06 9.94 -0.06 21.0 59 384 0.13 3 AA II Valley  4  6   40.9 4
19 New Kent 1 9 0.99 9.01 0.01 21.0 139 315 0.31 3 AA I Bay Rivers  4  6   39.2 3
20 William Monroe 1 9 0.97 9.03 0.03 19.2 176 402 0.30 3 AA II Jefferson  0  10   15.7 -1
21 Nottoway 6 5 5.93 5.07 0.07 39.0 267 252 0.51 3 AA I Southside  4  6   37.6 -2
22 Prince Edward 4 6 3.88 6.12 0.12 25.3 206 244 0.46 3 AA I Southside  6  5   48.0 2
23 Rustburg 2 8 1.85 8.15 0.15 31.2 163 282 0.37 3 AA III Seminole  4  6   46.4 2
24 James Monroe 11 2 10.69 2.31 0.31 71.9 466 264 0.64 3 AA I Battlefield  8  5   59.7 -3
25 Brunswick 1 9 0.59 9.41 0.41 14.3 129 359 0.26 3 AA I Southside  5  5   48.7 4
26 Appomattox 1 9 0.55 9.45 0.45 20.6 120 343 0.26 3 AA III Seminole  2  8   28.4 1
27 Bluestone 1 9 0.53 9.47 0.47 4.2 110 319 0.26 3 AA I Southside  0  10   9.1 -1
28 Brentsville 2 8 1.32 8.68 0.68 36.3 99 199 0.33 3 AA II Northwestern  4  7   51.6 2
29 Southampton 4 6 3.27 6.73 0.73 35.1 140 183 0.43 3 AA I Bay Rivers  7  4   55.5 3
30 Alleghany 1 9 0.23 9.77 0.77 20.1 91 364 0.20 3 AA III Blue Ridge  4  6   40.2 3
31 Waynesboro 2 8 1.14 8.86 0.86 34.0 165 352 0.32 3 AA II Valley  1  10   22.0 -1
32 Millbrook 3 7 2.07 7.93 0.93 36.3 168 276 0.38 3 AA II Northwestern  5  5   56.0 2
33 Grundy 2 8 1.06 8.94 0.94 25.6 168 370 0.31 3 AA IV Southwest  1  9   11.5 -1
34 Western Albemarle 5 5 4.06 5.94 0.94 51.7 270 311 0.46 3 AA II Jefferson  5  5   57.0 0
35 Poquoson 4 6 2.91 7.09 1.09 39.4 202 281 0.42 3 AA I Bay Rivers  0  10   16.0 -4
36 Broadway 5 5 3.86 6.14 1.14 46.3 197 234 0.46 3 AA II Valley  4  6   41.6 -1
37 Marion 2 8 0.80 9.20 1.20 20.9 128 316 0.29 3 AA IV Highlands  5  5   33.4 3
38 Park View(SH) 4 6 2.68 7.32 1.32 25.7 149 216 0.41 3 AA I Southside  9  3   54.7 5
39 Patrick County 4 6 2.58 7.42 1.42 33.6 190 281 0.40 3 AA IV Piedmont  5  5   38.5 1
40 Fort Defiance 4 6 2.56 7.44 1.44 48.5 182 270 0.40 3 AA II Valley  2  8   29.7 -2
41 Greensville 4 6 2.04 7.96 1.96 29.8 174 288 0.38 3 AA I Southside  1  9   23.0 -3
42 Central(W) 4 6 1.93 8.07 2.07 42.6 119 202 0.37 3 AA II Northwestern  4  6   46.0 0
43 Northside 4 6 1.81 8.19 2.19 47.4 119 208 0.36 3 AA III Blue Ridge  1  9   29.7 -3
44 Dominion 3 7 0.47 9.53 2.53 30.2 103 313 0.25 3 AA II Dulles  4  6   47.7 1
45 Fluvanna 5 5 2.26 7.74 2.74 43.2 168 265 0.39 3 AA II Jefferson  3  7   31.1 -2