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1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2005 Division 6 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W		 ACT
L		 Proj
W		 Proj
L		 ACT
vs
Proj
Diff		 State
Rating		 PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W		 YR+1
L		 YR+1
Rate
YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 Manchester 5 5 8.56 1.44 -3.56 72.6 236 122 0.66 6 AAA Central Dominion  5  5   54.9 0
2 T.C. Williams 4 6 6.50 3.50 -2.50 59.5 224 178 0.56 6 AAA Northern Patriot  4  6   65.6 0
3 Herndon 6 4 8.47 1.53 -2.47 90.1 309 164 0.65 6 AAA Northern Concorde  6  4   87.7 0
4 L.C. Bird 10 3 12.29 0.71 -2.29 96.3 396 138 0.74 6 AAA Central Dominion  8  3   72.3 -2
5 Hermitage 7 3 9.12 0.88 -2.12 72.0 306 129 0.70 6 AAA Central Colonial  7  3   81.8 0
6 Woodbridge 8 3 9.87 1.13 -1.87 83.8 254 114 0.69 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal  8  4   96.0 0
7 James Robinson 9 2 10.49 0.51 -1.49 105.9 388 127 0.75 6 AAA Northern Concorde  6  4   92.1 -3
8 Deep Creek 8 2 9.46 0.54 -1.46 91.9 396 137 0.74 6 AAA Eastern Southeastern  8  2   92.9 0
9 Kellam 8 3 9.40 1.60 -1.40 91.7 362 188 0.66 6 AAA Eastern Beach  7  3   87.0 -1
10 Douglas Freeman 5 5 6.39 3.61 -1.39 60.7 226 183 0.55 6 AAA Central Colonial  3  7   44.2 -2
11 R.E. Lee(S) 6 4 7.36 2.64 -1.36 77.3 215 147 0.59 6 AAA Northern Patriot  5  5   77.7 -1
12 Mills Godwin 6 4 7.26 2.74 -1.26 70.2 218 152 0.59 6 AAA Central Colonial  6  4   72.6 0
13 Centreville 8 2 9.22 0.78 -1.22 100.4 447 179 0.71 6 AAA Northern Concorde  6  4   86.9 -2
14 West Springfield 5 5 6.20 3.80 -1.20 69.6 296 247 0.55 6 AAA Northern Patriot  4  6   70.5 -1
15 GW-Danville 5 5 6.20 3.80 -1.20 62.4 290 242 0.55 6 AAA Northwest Western Valley  7  4   79.8 2
16 Western Branch 7 3 8.18 1.82 -1.18 85.8 283 162 0.64 6 AAA Eastern Southeastern  9  2   97.0 2
17 Highland Springs 8 3 9.12 1.88 -1.12 79.8 235 131 0.64 6 AAA Central Capital  9  3   86.2 1
18 Clover Hill 8 2 9.08 0.92 -1.08 79.8 294 126 0.70 6 AAA Central Dominion  9  2   70.5 1
19 Thomas Dale 7 3 8.00 2.00 -1.00 86.2 284 170 0.63 6 AAA Central Central  7  3   71.6 0
20 Kempsville 8 2 8.89 1.11 -0.89 91.7 298 138 0.68 6 AAA Eastern Beach  4  6   68.7 -4
21 North Stafford 7 3 7.85 2.15 -0.85 72.4 215 133 0.62 6 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  3  7   60.6 -4
22 Meadowbrook 10 2 10.82 1.18 -0.82 94.1 291 128 0.69 6 AAA Central Central  6  4   59.6 -4
23 Varina 9 1 9.82 0.18 -0.82 87.1 350 80 0.81 6 AAA Central Capital  11  2   94.1 2
24 Salem(VB) 8 3 8.80 2.20 -0.80 91.7 269 161 0.63 6 AAA Eastern Beach  12  1   107.1 4
25 C.D. Hylton 12 1 12.79 0.21 -0.79 96.0 482 105 0.82 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal  8  2   95.5 -4
26 Great Bridge 4 6 4.79 5.21 -0.79 69.7 284 293 0.49 6 AAA Eastern Southeastern  4  6   72.9 0
27 Westfield 10 2 10.68 1.32 -0.68 108.8 403 186 0.68 6 AAA Northern Concorde  11  1   110.6 1
28 Gar-Field 2 8 2.67 7.33 -0.67 49.1 165 240 0.41 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal  7  4   89.5 5
29 Landstown 13 1 13.38 0.62 -0.38 109.0 613 197 0.76 6 AAA Eastern Beach  8  2   91.7 -5
30 Patrick Henry(A) 10 1 10.29 0.71 -0.29 82.8 375 139 0.73 6 AAA Central Colonial  8  2   80.4 -2
31 Oscar Smith 11 1 11.23 0.77 -0.23 103.9 423 157 0.73 6 AAA Eastern Southeastern  10  2   99.2 -1
32 First Colonial 3 7 3.20 6.80 -0.20 62.5 202 267 0.43 6 AAA Eastern Beach  5  5   75.0 2
33 Menchville 0 10 0.15 9.85 -0.15 49.3 80 380 0.17 6 AAA Eastern Peninsula  2  8   56.4 2
34 Granby 4 6 4.12 5.88 -0.12 62.1 198 226 0.47 6 AAA Eastern Eastern  2  8   53.7 -2
35 Frank Cox 5 5 5.11 4.89 -0.11 74.6 184 181 0.50 6 AAA Eastern Beach  3  7   62.6 -2
36 Hickory 7 3 7.04 2.96 -0.04 86.3 281 204 0.58 6 AAA Eastern Southeastern  6  4   84.7 -1
37 Bayside 2 8 2.01 7.99 -0.01 56.5 177 295 0.38 6 AAA Eastern Beach  5  5   74.8 3
38 Riverbend 5 5 4.97 5.03 0.03 53.7 209 210 0.50 6 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  5  5   60.1 0
39 Tallwood 2 8 1.67 8.33 0.33 56.5 159 288 0.36 6 AAA Eastern Beach  8  3   92.6 6
40 Bethel 4 6 3.67 6.33 0.33 71.4 165 202 0.45 6 AAA Eastern Peninsula  4  6   70.4 0
41 Culpeper County 2 8 1.55 8.45 0.45 48.3 137 257 0.35 6 AAA Northwest Cedar Run  2  8   62.8 0
42 Fairfax 1 9 0.52 9.48 0.48 57.6 129 377 0.25 6 AAA Northern Concorde  1  9   61.5 0
43 Green Run 1 9 0.51 9.49 0.49 50.3 128 379 0.25 6 AAA Eastern Beach  1  9   50.4 0
44 South County 1 9 0.49 9.51 0.51 41.4 108 323 0.25 6 AAA Northern Patriot  6  4   77.4 5
45 Langley 4 6 3.47 6.53 0.53 68.3 152 192 0.44 6 AAA Northern Liberty  4  6   69.2 0
46 Oakton * 12 2 11.35 2.65 0.65 112.0 408 238 0.63 6 AAA Northern Concorde  6  5   92.5 -6
47 Annandale 6 5 5.34 5.66 0.66 81.1 225 230 0.49 6 AAA Northern Patriot  6  5   86.7 0
48 West Potomac 4 6 3.19 6.81 0.81 59.3 204 270 0.43 6 AAA Northern Patriot  6  4   80.4 2
49 Franklin County 8 3 7.11 3.89 0.89 82.9 310 248 0.56 6 AAA Northwest Western Valley  7  3   75.9 -1
50 Osbourn 10 2 9.06 2.94 0.94 89.1 364 240 0.60 6 AAA Northwest Cedar Run  14  0   115.5 4
51 Monacan 2 8 0.93 9.07 1.07 45.5 121 281 0.30 6 AAA Central Dominion  3  7   37.4 1
52 Princess Anne 2 8 0.74 9.26 1.26 56.5 187 478 0.28 6 AAA Eastern Beach  0  10   44.3 -2
53 Stafford 4 6 2.73 7.27 1.27 54.9 188 270 0.41 6 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  6  4   73.5 2
54 Stonewall Jackson(M) 5 5 3.69 6.31 1.31 66.9 159 194 0.45 6 AAA Northwest Cedar Run  4  5   79.7 -1
55 Prince George 3 7 1.67 8.33 1.33 55.6 122 221 0.36 6 AAA Central Central  1  9   38.2 -2
56 Ocean Lakes 6 4 4.62 5.38 1.38 80.7 189 200 0.49 6 AAA Eastern Beach  4  6   68.9 -2
57 Osbourn Park 8 2 6.55 3.45 1.45 82.0 204 161 0.56 6 AAA Northwest Cedar Run  5  5   79.9 -3
58 James River(C) 5 5 3.54 6.46 1.46 65.3 224 280 0.44 6 AAA Central Dominion  3  7   41.7 -2
59 W.T. Woodson 3 7 1.33 8.67 1.67 62.5 177 354 0.33 6 AAA Northern Liberty  5  5   74.1 2
60 Forest Park 3 7 1.29 8.71 1.71 56.1 158 320 0.33 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal  0  9   54.1 -3
61 Lake Braddock 6 4 4.18 5.82 1.82 77.2 153 173 0.47 6 AAA Northern Patriot  6  4   83.8 0
62 Chantilly 4 6 1.51 8.49 2.49 81.5 113 214 0.35 6 AAA Northern Concorde  10  4   103.5 6
63 Midlothian 4 6 0.88 9.12 3.12 55.7 92 219 0.30 6 AAA Central Dominion  1  9   29.4 -3
64 Gloucester 5 5 1.68 8.32 3.32 75.5 94 170 0.36 6 AAA Eastern Peninsula  1  9   53.5 -4