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1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2006 Division 1 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W		 ACT
L		 Proj
W		 Proj
L		 ACT
vs
Proj
Diff		 State
Rating		 PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W		 YR+1
L		 YR+1
Rate
YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 Stonewall Jackson(Q) 7 4 10.24 0.76 -3.24 45.4 246 94 0.72 1 A B Shenandoah  6  5   41.3 -1
2 Covington 5 6 7.95 3.05 -2.95 14.3 264 185 0.59 1 A C Pioneer  1  9   -3.0 -4
3 Surry 7 5 9.01 2.99 -2.01 34.1 197 131 0.60 1 A A Tri-Rivers  10  2   49.4 3
4 Castlewood 7 4 8.99 2.01 -1.99 19.4 312 179 0.64 1 A D Cumberland  7  3   16.7 0
5 Bland(RG) 6 4 7.65 2.35 -1.65 3.1 209 135 0.61 1 A C Mtn. Empire  7  4   18.7 1
6 Franklin 7 4 8.62 2.38 -1.62 34.1 274 170 0.62 1 A A Tri-Rivers  8  3   39.3 1
7 William Campbell 9 3 10.61 1.39 -1.61 63.4 448 211 0.68 1 A B Dogwood  9  3   60.8 0
8 Middlesex 6 5 7.38 3.62 -1.38 22.4 224 172 0.57 1 A A Tidewater  1  9   -4.5 -5
9 Sussex Central 10 3 11.34 1.66 -1.34 45.7 469 230 0.67 1 A A Tri-Rivers  4  6   24.4 -6
10 Rural Retreat 9 4 10.09 2.91 -1.09 31.7 477 301 0.61 1 A C Hogoheegee  8  4   38.1 -1
11 Bath County 5 7 6.04 5.96 -1.04 23.9 224 223 0.50 1 A C Pioneer  8  5   38.9 3
12 Ervinton 7 4 8.00 3.00 -1.00 15.3 335 233 0.59 1 A D Cumberland  1  9   -21.9 -6
13 Buffalo Gap 6 4 6.98 3.02 -0.98 40.1 225 165 0.58 1 A B Shenandoah  14  0   66.0 8
14 J.I. Burton 13 1 13.70 0.30 -0.70 55.8 615 149 0.80 1 A D Lonesome Pine  10  2   48.5 -3
15 Strasburg 3 6 3.34 5.66 -0.34 21.4 162 197 0.45 1 A B Bull Run  6  4   34.9 3
16 Northumberland 0 10 0.09 9.91 -0.09 -6.5 62 359 0.15 1 A A Northern Neck  1  9   -6.2 1
17 Auburn 1 9 1.03 8.97 -0.03 -9.6 120 268 0.31 1 A C Three Rivers  5  5   18.7 4
18 Craig County 0 10 0.01 9.99 -0.01 -23.6 32 374 0.08 1 A C Pioneer  0  10   -20.3 0
19 Cumberland 4 6 3.85 6.15 0.15 22.9 217 258 0.46 1 A B James River  6  4   34.2 2
20 Colonial Beach 4 0 3.81 0.19 0.19 40.4 145 48 0.75 1 A A Northern Neck  10  3   50.3 6
21 Twin Valley 3 7 2.71 7.29 0.29 -7.3 179 258 0.41 1 A D Black Diamond  0  10   -25.1 -3
22 Northwood 5 6 4.70 6.30 0.30 14.9 279 311 0.47 1 A C Hogoheegee  1  9   3.3 -4
23 Parry McCluer 3 7 2.61 7.39 0.39 9.2 183 269 0.40 1 A C Pioneer  3  7   8.9 0
24 Galax 4 6 3.55 6.45 0.45 6.0 202 252 0.44 1 A C Mtn. Empire  5  5   16.2 1
25 Holston 1 9 0.53 9.47 0.47 -10.6 128 373 0.26 1 A C Hogoheegee  6  5   26.8 5
26 Altavista 2 8 1.46 8.54 0.54 17.2 163 314 0.34 1 A B Dogwood  2  8   15.8 0
27 Eastern Montgomery 4 6 3.39 6.61 0.61 10.7 196 251 0.44 1 A C Three Rivers  5  5   18.0 1
28 Twin Springs 1 9 0.29 9.71 0.71 -15.9 107 394 0.21 1 A D Cumberland  2  8   -7.3 1
29 Rye Cove 4 6 3.22 6.78 0.78 11.8 198 261 0.43 1 A D Cumberland  3  7   1.7 -1
30 Charles City 2 7 1.21 7.79 0.79 1.2 106 211 0.33 1 A A Tri-Rivers  2  8   4.8 0
31 Amelia County 1 9 0.21 9.79 0.79 11.2 88 366 0.19 1 A B James River  2  8   8.9 1
32 Chincoteague 1 3 0.19 3.81 0.81 -21.7 54 164 0.25 1 A A Eastern Shore-A  1  4   -22.0 0
33 Riverheads * 13 1 12.17 1.83 0.83 65.8 401 199 0.67 1 A B Shenandoah  8  3   53.6 -5
34 Lunenburg 7 4 6.14 4.86 0.86 43.1 364 334 0.52 1 A B James River  5  5   34.7 -2
35 Hurley 1 9 0.04 9.96 0.96 -19.7 48 377 0.11 1 A D Black Diamond  3  7   -1.8 2
36 West Point 2 8 1.01 8.99 0.99 0.8 145 326 0.31 1 A A Tidewater  7  4   26.0 5
37 Narrows 3 7 1.89 8.11 1.11 -3.6 168 288 0.37 1 A C Mtn. Empire  3  7   3.8 0
38 Rappahannock 5 5 3.81 6.19 1.19 23.5 193 231 0.46 1 A A Northern Neck  3  7   13.7 -2
39 Mathews 2 8 0.75 9.25 1.25 6.8 115 291 0.28 1 A A Tidewater  4  6   13.0 2
40 Page 3 7 1.59 8.41 1.41 19.7 114 211 0.35 1 A B Shenandoah  3  7   22.1 0
41 Thomas Walker 2 8 0.30 9.70 1.70 -4.3 95 345 0.22 1 A D Cumberland  4  6   5.3 2
42 King & Queen 2 8 0.25 9.75 1.75 7.3 80 313 0.20 1 A A Tidewater  0  10   -10.9 -2
43 Luray 7 3 4.92 5.08 2.08 44.7 176 178 0.50 1 A B Shenandoah  1  9   10.6 -6