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1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2006 Division 2 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W		 ACT
L		 Proj
W		 Proj
L		 ACT
vs
Proj
Diff		 State
Rating		 PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W		 YR+1
L		 YR+1
Rate
YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 Manassas Park 5 5 7.13 2.87 -2.13 32.7 175 125 0.58 2 A B Bull Run  4  6   28.7 -1
2 Chilhowie 6 4 7.73 2.27 -1.73 21.1 258 164 0.61 2 A C Hogoheegee  8  2   40.1 2
3 Giles 12 2 13.52 0.48 -1.52 59.6 491 143 0.77 2 A C Three Rivers  10  2   61.1 -2
4 Washington & Lee 6 5 7.28 3.72 -1.28 37.6 264 206 0.56 2 A A Northern Neck  5  5   27.8 -1
5 Gretna 10 2 11.24 0.76 -1.24 57.4 484 178 0.73 2 A B Dogwood  14  0   73.4 4
6 Chatham 6 4 7.17 2.83 -1.17 43.2 306 217 0.59 2 A B Dogwood  6  4   38.2 0
7 King William 10 2 11.11 0.89 -1.11 46.6 445 175 0.72 2 A A Tidewater  7  6   34.7 -3
8 Floyd County 5 5 5.88 4.12 -0.88 33.6 236 207 0.53 2 A C Three Rivers  7  4   42.2 2
9 Madison County 6 4 6.79 3.21 -0.79 32.4 273 207 0.57 2 A B Bull Run  5  5   29.5 -1
10 Lancaster 7 4 7.61 3.39 -0.61 32.6 325 241 0.57 2 A A Northern Neck  8  3   27.8 1
11 Glenvar 9 1 9.47 0.53 -0.47 44.3 253 87 0.74 2 A C Three Rivers  3  7   8.2 -6
12 Nelson County 2 8 2.44 7.56 -0.44 17.0 188 286 0.40 2 A B Dogwood  5  5   40.2 3
13 Grayson County 6 5 6.38 4.62 -0.38 27.5 311 276 0.53 2 A C Mtn. Empire  8  3   37.6 2
14 Buckingham County 2 8 2.32 7.68 -0.32 12.1 181 282 0.39 2 A B James River  5  5   30.2 3
15 Gate City 4 6 4.31 5.69 -0.31 26.3 202 224 0.47 2 A D Lonesome Pine  10  4   59.1 6
16 John Battle 2 8 2.17 7.83 -0.17 2.4 179 288 0.38 2 A C Hogoheegee  3  7   12.8 1
17 Wilson Memorial 7 5 7.14 4.86 -0.14 40.0 234 203 0.54 2 A B Shenandoah  5  5   31.8 -2
18 Randolph-Henry 6 4 6.14 3.86 -0.14 39.9 235 198 0.54 2 A B James River  1  9   4.9 -5
19 George Wythe(W) 6 4 6.11 3.89 -0.11 28.7 220 186 0.54 2 A C Hogoheegee  11  2   57.0 5
20 George Mason 6 5 6.02 4.98 -0.02 39.0 192 179 0.52 2 A B Bull Run  7  3   40.9 1
21 Patrick Henry(GS) 2 8 1.81 8.19 0.19 1.3 179 313 0.36 2 A C Hogoheegee  4  6   22.1 2
22 Essex 12 1 11.79 1.21 0.21 63.3 507 218 0.70 2 A A Northern Neck  11  1   46.2 -1
23 Goochland * 14 0 13.76 0.24 0.24 65.9 491 109 0.82 2 A B James River  11  1   60.9 -3
24 Arcadia 1 8 0.58 8.42 0.42 6.8 111 298 0.27 2 A A Eastern Shore-A  5  5   20.0 4
25 Lebanon 9 3 8.58 3.42 0.42 44.8 399 284 0.58 2 A C Hogoheegee  8  3   52.6 -1
26 Radford 5 5 4.42 5.58 0.58 30.2 210 229 0.48 2 A C Three Rivers  5  5   35.9 0
27 Northampton 3 6 2.40 6.60 0.60 22.9 143 208 0.41 2 A A Eastern Shore-A  4  6   16.2 1
28 Honaker 6 5 5.40 5.60 0.60 28.9 217 220 0.50 2 A D Black Diamond  5  5   30.1 -1
29 Clarke County 2 8 1.33 8.67 0.67 14.3 112 224 0.33 2 A B Bull Run  8  3   50.4 6
30 Dan River 1 9 0.17 9.83 0.83 15.9 88 399 0.18 2 A IV Dogwood  1  9   16.7 0
31 James River(B) 6 5 4.58 6.42 1.42 25.3 254 288 0.47 2 A C Pioneer  6  3   32.5 0
32 Windsor 3 7 1.37 8.63 1.63 3.4 148 293 0.34 2 A A Three Rivers  6  4   28.7 3
33 Fort Chiswell 5 5 3.25 6.75 1.75 11.8 228 299 0.43 2 A C Mtn. Empire  1  9   -2.6 -4