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1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2006 Division 3 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W
ACT
L
Proj
W
Proj
L
ACT
vs
Proj
Diff
State
Rating
PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W
YR+1
L
YR+1
Rate

YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 Graham 7 5 9.97 2.03 -2.97 51.4 301 167 0.64 3 AA IV Southwest  6  5   42.2 -1
2 Rockbridge County 9 5 11.55 2.45 -2.55 67.3 364 205 0.64 3 AA II Valley  4  6   36.1 -5
3 Handley 7 4 8.69 2.31 -1.69 64.6 291 178 0.62 3 AA II Northwestern  5  6   49.2 -2
4 Poquoson 0 10 1.57 8.43 -1.57 16.0 162 302 0.35 3 AA I Bay Rivers  8  5   61.0 8
5 Nottoway 4 6 5.55 4.45 -1.55 37.6 253 233 0.52 3 AA I Southside  8  3   56.7 4
6 Western Albemarle 5 5 6.43 3.57 -1.43 57.0 291 234 0.55 3 AA II Jefferson  5  5   43.7 0
7 Nandua 7 2 8.04 0.96 -1.04 44.1 202 92 0.69 3 AA I Eastern Shore-AA  1  9   -3.1 -6
8 Brunswick 5 5 5.84 4.16 -0.84 48.7 236 208 0.53 3 AA I Southside  7  5   49.4 2
9 Hidden Valley 10 3 10.78 2.22 -0.78 69.4 271 151 0.64 3 AA III River Ridge  5  5   60.5 -5
10 Freedom(R) 5 5 5.75 4.25 -0.75 44.2 209 187 0.53 3 AA II Dulles  0  10   21.0 -5
11 Rustburg 4 6 4.68 5.32 -0.68 46.4 167 175 0.49 3 AA III Seminole  1  9   30.5 -3
12 James Monroe 8 5 8.43 4.57 -0.43 59.7 300 239 0.56 3 AA I Battlefield  9  2   71.5 1
13 Bluestone 0 10 0.32 9.68 -0.32 9.1 100 353 0.22 3 AA I Southside  1  9   14.5 1
14 Turner Ashby 5 5 5.27 4.73 -0.27 47.9 204 196 0.51 3 AA II Valley  5  5   45.5 0
15 William Monroe 0 10 0.23 9.77 -0.23 15.7 111 445 0.20 3 AA II Jefferson  2  8   17.3 2
16 R.E. Lee(ST) 10 2 10.20 1.80 -0.20 67.3 346 182 0.66 3 AA II Valley  8  4   50.0 -2
17 Liberty(Bed) 5 5 5.19 4.81 -0.19 52.5 218 212 0.51 3 AA III Seminole  6  6   50.1 1
18 Fort Defiance 2 8 2.19 7.81 -0.19 29.7 194 311 0.38 3 AA II Valley  1  9   18.1 -1
19 Northside 1 9 1.16 8.84 -0.16 29.7 137 291 0.32 3 AA III Blue Ridge  2  8   41.4 1
20 Broadway 4 6 4.10 5.90 -0.10 41.6 270 309 0.47 3 AA II Valley  6  5   46.8 2
21 Prince Edward 6 5 6.03 4.97 -0.03 48.0 303 282 0.52 3 AA I Southside  4  6   31.6 -2
22 Greensville 1 9 0.84 9.16 0.16 23.0 113 274 0.29 3 AA I Southside  5  4   42.8 4
23 Richlands * 14 0 13.82 0.18 0.18 75.7 653 132 0.83 3 AA IV Southwest  11  3   66.3 -3
24 Marion 5 5 4.72 5.28 0.28 33.4 209 218 0.49 3 AA IV Highlands  7  5   39.7 2
25 Millbrook 5 5 4.66 5.34 0.34 56.0 176 185 0.49 3 AA II Northwestern  9  3   63.9 4
26 Waynesboro 1 10 0.59 10.41 0.41 22.0 156 453 0.26 3 AA II Valley  1  9   12.9 0
27 Christiansburg 7 5 6.54 5.46 0.46 56.9 323 302 0.52 3 AA III River Ridge  6  4   65.2 -1
28 Alleghany 4 6 3.45 6.55 0.55 40.2 213 270 0.44 3 AA III Blue Ridge  6  5   40.6 2
29 Appomattox 2 8 1.45 8.55 0.55 28.4 161 311 0.34 3 AA III Seminole  8  3   51.7 6
30 Grundy 1 9 0.42 9.58 0.58 11.5 119 379 0.24 3 AA IV Southwest  2  8   1.5 1
31 Fluvanna 3 7 2.32 7.68 0.68 31.1 202 315 0.39 3 AA II Jefferson  0  10   11.4 -3
32 Lord Botetourt 5 6 4.28 6.72 0.72 51.5 165 195 0.46 3 AA III Blue Ridge  4  7   49.6 -1
33 Southampton 7 4 6.20 4.80 0.80 55.5 266 242 0.52 3 AA I Bay Rivers  2  8   28.2 -5
34 Bruton 4 6 3.08 6.92 0.92 41.3 134 181 0.43 3 AA I Bay Rivers  3  7   35.9 -1
35 Brentsville 4 7 3.00 8.00 1.00 51.6 167 240 0.41 3 AA II Northwestern  4  6   41.5 0
36 Brookville 5 6 3.71 7.29 1.29 51.9 201 258 0.44 3 AA III Seminole  9  4   73.4 4
37 Cave Spring 2 8 0.65 9.35 1.35 31.6 97 260 0.27 3 AA III River Ridge  2  8   37.7 0
38 York 2 8 0.59 9.41 1.41 24.9 112 313 0.26 3 AA I Bay Rivers  3  7   38.3 1
39 Stuarts Draft 4 6 2.50 7.50 1.50 40.9 181 272 0.40 3 AA II Valley  8  4   54.8 4
40 Tazewell 8 3 6.29 4.71 1.71 55.1 267 240 0.53 3 AA IV Southwest  2  8   22.7 -6
41 New Kent 4 6 2.24 7.76 1.76 39.2 140 222 0.39 3 AA I Bay Rivers  2  8   32.2 -2
42 Park View(SH) 9 3 7.23 4.77 1.77 54.7 308 264 0.54 3 AA I Southside  5  5   38.2 -4
43 Patrick County 5 5 3.22 6.78 1.78 38.5 189 249 0.43 3 AA IV Piedmont  5  7   41.7 0
44 Virginia 5 6 3.20 7.80 1.80 38.3 228 317 0.42 3 AA IV Highlands  4  6   31.2 -1
45 Briar Woods 6 4 4.00 6.00 2.00 44.2 173 201 0.46 3 AA II Dulles  6  5   52.9 0
46 Dominion 4 6 1.92 8.08 2.08 47.7 131 223 0.37 3 AA II Dulles  2  8   37.2 -2
47 Central(W) 4 6 1.85 8.15 2.15 46.0 116 201 0.37 3 AA II Northwestern  1  9   20.5 -3