VHSL-REFERENCE.COM   
1999  |   2000  |   2001  |   2002  |  2003  |   2004  |   2005  |   2006  |   2007  |   2008   |   2009   |   2010  |   2011  |   2012  |   2013   |   2014   |   2015  |   2016   |   2017  |   2018  |   2019  |  

Div1  |   Div2  |   Div3  |  Div4  |  Div5  |  Div6  

1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2006 Division 5 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W		 ACT
L		 Proj
W		 Proj
L		 ACT
vs
Proj
Diff		 State
Rating		 PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W		 YR+1
L		 YR+1
Rate
YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 Loudoun Valley 6 4 8.67 1.33 -2.67 67.6 276 138 0.67 5 AAA Northern National  2  8   60.0 -4
2 Mount Vernon 5 5 7.51 2.49 -2.51 59.7 241 160 0.60 5 AAA Northern National  5  6   60.7 0
3 Brooke Point 7 4 9.51 1.49 -2.51 80.1 314 158 0.67 5 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  9  2   88.3 2
4 Hampton 9 2 10.79 0.21 -1.79 99.7 407 94 0.81 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  9  3   91.5 0
5 Lake Taylor 9 2 10.70 0.30 -1.70 89.8 325 87 0.79 5 AAA Eastern Eastern  10  1   87.4 1
6 Booker T. Washington 3 7 4.46 5.54 -1.46 60.0 156 169 0.48 5 AAA Eastern Eastern  5  5   62.9 2
7 Potomac 11 2 12.42 0.58 -1.42 105.2 435 140 0.76 5 AAA Northwest Cardinal  13  1   106.0 2
8 Halifax County 8 3 9.32 1.68 -1.32 71.4 283 150 0.65 5 AAA Northwest Western Valley  6  4   66.9 -2
9 Petersburg 5 5 6.23 3.77 -1.23 54.6 183 152 0.55 5 AAA Central Central  2  8   41.2 -3
10 Falls Church 3 7 4.19 5.81 -1.19 47.7 224 253 0.47 5 AAA Northern National  3  7   44.8 0
11 Yorktown 9 2 10.05 0.95 -1.05 81.4 359 150 0.71 5 AAA Northern National  5  5   60.1 -4
12 Henrico 3 7 3.92 6.08 -0.92 59.1 203 239 0.46 5 AAA Central Capital  4  6   58.3 1
13 Battlefield 4 6 4.91 5.09 -0.91 72.6 217 220 0.50 5 AAA Northwest Cedar Run  9  2   97.4 5
14 Massaponax 5 5 5.86 4.14 -0.86 64.7 207 182 0.53 5 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  9  2   85.3 4
15 Thomas Edison 11 3 11.84 2.16 -0.84 89.5 374 199 0.65 5 AAA Northern National  9  3   87.3 -2
16 Maury 9 3 9.68 2.32 -0.68 92.6 280 165 0.63 5 AAA Eastern Eastern  6  5   68.9 -3
17 Indian River 5 5 5.47 4.53 -0.47 81.3 221 206 0.52 5 AAA Eastern Southeastern  7  6   82.7 2
18 Dinwiddie 3 7 3.43 6.57 -0.43 42.4 254 323 0.44 5 AAA Central Central  9  2   79.8 6
19 Cosby(C) 0 4 0.36 3.64 -0.36 20.0 41 97 0.30 5 AAA Central Dominion  5  5   62.7 5
20 Nansemond River 2 8 2.34 7.66 -0.34 55.2 208 323 0.39 5 AAA Eastern Southeastern  3  7   59.9 1
21 Stone Bridge 11 1 11.29 0.71 -0.29 99.8 497 178 0.74 5 AAA Northern Liberty  14  1   108.2 3
22 George Wythe(R) 0 10 0.28 9.72 -0.28 20.1 85 315 0.21 5 AAA Central Dominion  0  10   29.1 0
23 Woodside 7 3 7.22 2.78 -0.22 88.9 252 177 0.59 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  5  6   74.5 -2
24 Hayfield 0 10 0.21 9.79 -0.21 49.8 90 376 0.19 5 AAA Northern Patriot  1  9   56.8 1
25 Norcom 3 7 3.21 6.79 -0.21 57.0 134 177 0.43 5 AAA Eastern Eastern  4  6   51.0 1
26 J.E.B. Stuart 0 10 0.01 9.99 -0.01 26.5 40 489 0.08 5 AAA Northern National  0  10   27.5 0
27 Thomas Jefferson(R) 0 10 0.01 9.99 -0.01 32.9 36 476 0.07 5 AAA Central Colonial  1  9   34.2 1
28 Woodrow Wilson 0 10 0.00 10.00 -0.00 33.4 23 412 0.05 5 AAA Eastern Eastern  0  10   25.6 0
29 Huguenot 7 4 6.96 4.04 0.04 63.3 197 161 0.55 5 AAA Central Dominion  4  6   59.0 -3
30 Matoaca 11 1 10.92 1.08 0.08 84.5 452 192 0.70 5 AAA Central Central  6  4   73.6 -5
31 Colonial Heights 2 8 1.90 8.10 0.10 39.9 141 241 0.37 5 AAA Central Central  1  9   34.2 -1
32 Atlee 1 9 0.83 9.17 0.17 43.3 125 305 0.29 5 AAA Central Capital  3  7   49.5 2
33 Albemarle 6 4 5.77 4.23 0.23 74.1 284 253 0.53 5 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  5  5   62.1 -1
34 James Madison 7 4 6.76 4.24 0.24 84.4 271 228 0.54 5 AAA Northern Liberty  8  3   86.0 1
35 South Lakes 2 8 1.72 8.28 0.28 52.5 173 310 0.36 5 AAA Northern Liberty  3  7   57.9 1
36 Norview 5 5 4.71 5.29 0.29 67.5 162 169 0.49 5 AAA Eastern Eastern  3  7   46.6 -2
37 Denbigh 7 3 6.55 3.45 0.45 88.8 241 190 0.56 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  3  7   63.8 -4
38 Freedom 1 9 0.51 9.49 0.49 55.7 105 311 0.25 5 AAA Northwest Cardinal  2  8   60.5 1
39 John Marshall 4 6 3.47 6.53 0.53 52.8 167 211 0.44 5 AAA Central Colonial  6  4   65.9 2
40 Deep Run 12 1 11.43 1.57 0.57 88.3 419 201 0.68 5 AAA Central Colonial  6  4   68.5 -6
41 Fauquier 3 7 2.42 7.58 0.58 68.6 190 290 0.40 5 AAA Northwest Cedar Run  8  3   88.3 5
42 Phoebus * 13 1 12.37 1.63 0.63 110.8 411 194 0.68 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  13  1   105.4 0
43 E.C. Glass 3 7 2.31 7.69 0.69 58.1 130 203 0.39 5 AAA Northwest Western Valley  1  9   42.4 -2
44 Kings Fork 4 6 3.26 6.74 0.74 67.3 152 199 0.43 5 AAA Eastern Southeastern  7  3   84.7 3
45 Lakeland 1 9 0.21 9.79 0.79 53.0 95 393 0.19 5 AAA Eastern Southeastern  3  7   59.9 2
46 Washington-Lee 2 8 1.14 8.86 0.86 46.3 101 216 0.32 5 AAA Northern National  4  6   50.6 2
47 George Marshall 7 3 6.10 3.90 0.90 73.7 177 150 0.54 5 AAA Northern Liberty  8  4   79.7 1
48 Thomas Jefferson(A) 2 8 1.08 8.92 0.92 47.0 166 363 0.31 5 AAA Northern Liberty  1  9   42.6 -1
49 Colonial Forge 9 3 7.97 4.03 1.03 80.7 260 202 0.56 5 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  4  6   60.2 -5
50 Churchland 5 5 3.96 6.04 1.04 71.2 189 221 0.46 5 AAA Eastern Eastern  6  4   65.1 1
51 Warwick 5 5 3.86 6.14 1.14 77.1 176 209 0.46 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  6  5   79.0 1
52 Heritage(NN) 4 6 2.80 7.20 1.20 73.7 131 186 0.41 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  7  4   82.8 3
53 Wakefield 3 7 1.74 8.26 1.26 47.7 118 210 0.36 5 AAA Northern National  3  7   46.2 0
54 McLean 2 8 0.60 9.40 1.40 55.0 104 289 0.26 5 AAA Northern Liberty  2  8   48.8 0
55 Kecoughtan 4 6 2.58 7.42 1.42 70.6 169 250 0.40 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  2  8   55.7 -2
56 Patrick Henry(R) 4 6 2.53 7.47 1.47 57.6 148 221 0.40 5 AAA Northwest Western Valley  2  8   42.6 -2
57 Hopewell 2 8 0.50 9.50 1.50 38.9 93 277 0.25 5 AAA Central Central  4  6   56.0 2
58 Mountain View 2 8 0.35 9.65 1.65 42.0 60 206 0.23 5 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  2  8   51.2 0
59 J.R. Tucker 4 6 1.95 8.05 2.05 49.1 129 218 0.37 5 AAA Central Colonial  0  10   33.7 -4
60 Lee-Davis 4 6 1.40 8.60 2.60 63.2 114 223 0.34 5 AAA Central Capital  2  8   52.3 -2
61 Armstrong 5 5 1.86 8.14 3.14 57.3 122 211 0.37 5 AAA Central Capital  2  8   42.7 -3
62 Hanover 5 6 1.08 9.92 3.92 72.1 92 209 0.31 5 AAA Central Capital  9  4   78.4 4