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1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2007 Division 1 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W		 ACT
L		 Proj
W		 Proj
L		 ACT
vs
Proj
Diff		 State
Rating		 PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W		 YR+1
L		 YR+1
Rate
YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 West Point 7 4 9.13 1.87 -2.13 26.0 374 208 0.64 1 A A Tidewater  7  4   34.6 0
2 Colonial Beach 10 3 11.94 1.06 -1.94 50.3 549 224 0.71 1 A A Tidewater  11  1   58.9 1
3 William Campbell 9 3 10.93 1.07 -1.93 60.8 402 170 0.70 1 A B Dogwood  11  2   71.5 2
4 Rural Retreat 8 4 9.63 2.37 -1.63 38.1 338 201 0.63 1 A C Hogoheegee  2  8   6.8 -6
5 Surry 10 2 11.49 0.51 -1.49 49.4 367 116 0.76 1 A A Tri-Rivers  4  6   21.0 -6
6 Manassas Park 4 6 5.33 4.67 -1.33 28.7 165 157 0.51 1 A B Bull Run  2  8   25.7 -2
7 Castlewood 7 3 8.33 1.67 -1.33 16.7 312 172 0.64 1 A D Cumberland  7  3   23.5 0
8 J.I. Burton 10 2 10.98 1.02 -0.98 48.5 470 195 0.71 1 A D Lonesome Pine  10  2   53.7 0
9 Sussex Central 4 6 4.80 5.20 -0.80 24.4 229 236 0.49 1 A A Tri-Rivers  7  4   45.5 3
10 Riverheads 8 3 8.77 2.23 -0.77 53.6 292 176 0.62 1 A B Shenandoah  7  4   40.4 -1
11 Franklin 8 3 8.76 2.24 -0.76 39.3 338 204 0.62 1 A A Tri-Rivers  12  2   65.5 4
12 Bland(RG) 7 4 7.67 3.33 -0.67 18.7 297 218 0.58 1 A C Mtn. Empire  9  2   29.0 2
13 Altavista 2 8 2.58 7.42 -0.58 15.8 192 284 0.40 1 A B Dogwood  5  5   37.2 3
14 Eastern Montgomery 5 5 5.28 4.72 -0.28 18.0 270 259 0.51 1 A C Three Rivers  5  6   19.2 0
15 King & Queen 0 10 0.18 9.82 -0.18 -10.9 92 403 0.19 1 A A Tidewater  0  10   -1.0 0
16 Covington 1 9 1.18 8.82 -0.18 -3.0 152 320 0.32 1 A C Pioneer  0  10   -14.6 -1
17 Holston 6 5 6.17 4.83 -0.17 26.8 265 242 0.52 1 A C Hogoheegee  10  3   36.1 4
18 Craig County 0 10 0.10 9.90 -0.10 -20.3 75 413 0.15 1 A C Pioneer  2  8   -12.3 2
19 Twin Valley 0 10 0.08 9.92 -0.08 -25.1 70 413 0.14 1 A D Black Diamond  1  9   -12.7 1
20 Ervinton 1 9 0.77 9.23 0.23 -21.9 143 358 0.29 1 A D Cumberland  0  10   -19.1 -1
21 Rye Cove 3 7 2.77 7.23 0.23 1.7 204 291 0.41 1 A D Cumberland  4  6   15.6 1
22 Galax 5 5 4.73 5.27 0.27 16.2 245 255 0.49 1 A C Mtn. Empire  3  7   -0.3 -2
23 Luray 1 9 0.65 9.35 0.35 10.6 95 255 0.27 1 A B Shenandoah  4  6   23.4 3
24 Twin Springs 2 8 1.57 8.43 0.43 -7.3 164 306 0.35 1 A D Cumberland  6  4   24.7 4
25 Northumberland 1 9 0.39 9.61 0.61 -6.2 113 369 0.23 1 A A Northern Neck  6  4   34.6 5
26 Northwood 1 9 0.36 9.64 0.64 3.3 120 405 0.23 1 A C Hogoheegee  1  9   -4.1 0
27 Amelia County 2 8 1.36 8.64 0.64 8.9 174 345 0.34 1 A B James River  5  5   27.0 3
28 Parry McCluer 3 7 2.35 7.65 0.65 8.9 202 313 0.39 1 A C Pioneer  3  7   5.2 0
29 Chincoteague 1 4 0.09 4.91 0.91 -22.0 33 148 0.18 1 A A Eastern Shore-A  1  3   -12.6 0
30 Cumberland 6 4 5.06 4.94 0.94 34.2 218 216 0.50 1 A B James River  8  3   52.0 2
31 Lunenburg 5 5 4.06 5.94 0.94 34.7 225 259 0.46 1 A B James River  1  9   9.2 -4
32 Stonewall Jackson(Q) 6 5 4.97 6.03 1.03 41.3 163 175 0.48 1 A B Shenandoah  3  7   13.5 -3
33 Narrows 3 7 1.87 8.13 1.13 3.8 167 288 0.37 1 A C Mtn. Empire  6  4   19.9 3
34 Page 3 7 1.67 8.33 1.33 22.1 155 281 0.36 1 A B Shenandoah  3  7   13.5 0
35 Bath County 8 5 6.64 6.36 1.36 38.9 249 245 0.50 1 A C Pioneer  8  4   23.5 0
36 Mathews 4 6 2.63 7.37 1.37 13.0 183 268 0.41 1 A A Tidewater  4  6   21.3 0
37 Charles City 2 8 0.61 9.39 1.39 4.8 126 346 0.27 1 A A Tri-Rivers  1  9   8.3 -1
38 Buffalo Gap * 14 0 12.26 1.74 1.74 66.0 492 239 0.67 1 A B Shenandoah  11  1   52.4 -3
39 Thomas Walker 4 6 1.94 8.06 2.06 5.3 154 261 0.37 1 A D Cumberland  6  5   27.5 2
40 Rappahannock 3 7 0.73 9.27 2.27 13.7 88 225 0.28 1 A A Northern Neck  3  7   24.1 0
41 Nelson County 5 5 2.54 7.46 2.46 40.2 182 271 0.40 1 A B Dogwood  3  7   29.8 -2
42 Hurley 3 7 0.37 9.63 2.63 -1.8 88 294 0.23 1 A D Black Diamond  5  4   2.6 2