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1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2007 Division 4 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W		 ACT
L		 Proj
W		 Proj
L		 ACT
vs
Proj
Diff		 State
Rating		 PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W		 YR+1
L		 YR+1
Rate
YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 James Wood 8 3 10.46 0.54 -2.46 60.9 308 103 0.75 4 AA II Northwestern  8  3   61.2 0
2 Blacksburg 7 4 9.15 1.85 -2.15 69.0 354 196 0.64 4 AA IV River Ridge  6  5   55.4 -1
3 Abingdon 7 3 9.12 0.88 -2.12 43.8 333 140 0.70 4 AA IV Southwest  5  5   22.8 -2
4 Smithfield 7 3 8.69 1.31 -1.69 63.9 349 173 0.67 4 AA I Bay Rivers  6  4   50.0 -1
5 Grafton 7 3 8.65 1.35 -1.65 62.6 324 163 0.67 4 AA I Bay Rivers  7  3   56.1 0
6 Courtland 7 4 8.55 2.45 -1.55 73.2 300 189 0.61 4 AA I Battlefield  7  4   73.8 0
7 Pulaski County 7 4 8.50 2.50 -1.50 67.7 288 183 0.61 4 AA IV River Ridge  12  1   82.7 5
8 Spotswood 6 5 7.34 3.66 -1.34 46.1 299 231 0.56 4 AA III Massanutten  5  5   43.3 -1
9 Powhatan 11 2 12.26 0.74 -1.26 76.5 505 179 0.74 4 AA I Southside  10  2   74.4 -1
10 Caroline 8 3 9.24 1.76 -1.24 71.6 288 156 0.65 4 AA I Battlefield  6  4   63.8 -2
11 William Byrd 10 2 11.22 0.78 -1.22 77.1 403 150 0.73 4 AA III Blue Ridge  7  4   54.8 -3
12 Spotsylvania 1 9 2.16 7.84 -1.16 37.0 211 340 0.38 4 AA I Battlefield  2  8   44.8 1
13 Heritage(Lyn) 9 3 10.03 1.97 -1.03 71.2 356 195 0.65 4 AA III Seminole  3  7   40.3 -6
14 Tabb 8 2 8.76 1.24 -0.76 68.7 355 172 0.67 4 AA I Bay Rivers  8  3   60.5 0
15 Lafayette 11 1 11.56 0.44 -0.56 83.3 308 92 0.77 4 AA I Bay Rivers  4  6   42.1 -7
16 Orange 7 3 7.52 2.48 -0.52 58.8 324 215 0.60 4 AA II Jefferson  7  3   66.7 0
17 Broad Run 10 1 10.38 0.62 -0.38 78.8 324 114 0.74 4 AA II Dulles  14  0   95.3 4
18 Bassett 11 1 11.37 0.63 -0.37 77.2 418 143 0.75 4 AA IV Piedmont  7  4   59.3 -4
19 Heritage(Le) 7 3 7.33 2.67 -0.33 62.6 247 170 0.59 4 AA II Dulles  6  4   60.4 -1
20 Christiansburg 6 4 6.32 3.68 -0.32 65.2 254 208 0.55 4 AA IV River Ridge  5  5   46.0 -1
21 Sherando 13 1 13.29 0.71 -0.29 81.2 486 164 0.75 4 AA II Northwestern  7  3   48.8 -6
22 Staunton River 0 10 0.25 9.75 -0.25 23.5 85 330 0.20 4 AA III Seminole  0  10   18.3 0
23 Broadway 6 5 6.25 4.75 -0.25 46.8 270 244 0.53 4 AA III Massanutten  4  6   42.6 -2
24 Turner Ashby 5 5 5.20 4.80 -0.20 45.5 208 202 0.51 4 AA III Massanutten  7  4   64.4 2
25 Magna Vista 0 10 0.02 9.98 -0.02 23.6 43 413 0.09 4 AA IV Piedmont  0  10   22.6 0
26 Louisa 3 7 2.82 7.18 0.18 36.0 169 239 0.41 4 AA II Jefferson  7  3   65.7 4
27 Amherst County * 14 0 13.78 0.22 0.22 96.7 696 150 0.82 4 AA III Seminole  12  2   83.7 -2
28 Salem 12 1 11.68 1.32 0.32 93.7 366 163 0.69 4 AA IV River Ridge  9  3   75.9 -3
29 King George 5 5 4.62 5.38 0.38 52.0 314 332 0.49 4 AA I Battlefield  2  8   40.1 -3
30 Loudoun County 3 7 2.52 7.48 0.48 43.5 194 290 0.40 4 AA II Dulles  6  5   65.4 3
31 Chancellor 6 4 5.52 4.48 0.48 65.3 230 213 0.52 4 AA I Battlefield  12  1   92.2 6
32 Park View(St) 10 2 9.46 2.54 0.54 78.8 342 210 0.62 4 AA II Dulles  3  7   54.0 -7
33 Jamestown 7 3 6.43 3.57 0.57 62.6 260 209 0.55 4 AA I Bay Rivers  6  4   50.0 -1
34 Charlottesville 2 8 1.33 8.67 0.67 34.1 184 368 0.33 4 AA II Jefferson  1  9   31.8 -1
35 Harrisonburg 9 3 8.33 3.67 0.67 61.3 302 223 0.58 4 AA III Massanutten  8  4   60.2 -1
36 Jefferson Forest 4 6 3.17 6.83 0.83 53.0 152 202 0.43 4 AA III Seminole  9  4   71.2 5
37 York 3 7 2.07 7.93 0.93 38.3 177 291 0.38 4 AA I Bay Rivers  6  4   50.0 3
38 Hidden Valley 5 5 3.91 6.09 1.09 60.5 208 245 0.46 4 AA IV River Ridge  4  6   46.1 -1
39 Rockbridge County 4 6 2.82 7.18 1.18 36.1 174 246 0.41 4 AA III Southern Valley  6  5   50.9 2
40 Carroll County 3 7 1.49 8.51 1.51 31.9 157 299 0.34 4 AA IV Southwest  5  5   32.5 2
41 Warren County 2 8 0.07 9.93 1.93 18.5 49 310 0.14 4 AA II Northwestern  3  7   23.1 1
42 Brentsville 4 6 1.52 8.48 2.48 41.5 137 259 0.35 4 AA II Northwestern  2  7   31.2 -2