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1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2007 Division 5 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W		 ACT
L		 Proj
W		 Proj
L		 ACT
vs
Proj
Diff		 State
Rating		 PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W		 YR+1
L		 YR+1
Rate
YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 Hampton 9 3 11.59 0.41 -2.59 91.5 303 88 0.77 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  10  2   102.0 1
2 Patrick Henry(A) 7 5 9.38 2.62 -2.38 68.2 361 225 0.62 5 AAA Central Colonial  6  4   63.6 -1
3 Thomas Edison 9 3 11.26 0.74 -2.26 87.3 436 159 0.73 5 AAA Northern National  12  1   95.7 3
4 Stafford 3 7 4.42 5.58 -1.42 62.9 209 228 0.48 5 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  5  5   68.2 2
5 Petersburg 2 8 3.36 6.64 -1.36 41.2 195 251 0.44 5 AAA Central Central  5  5   63.0 3
6 Hanover 9 4 10.31 2.69 -1.31 78.4 319 194 0.62 5 AAA Central Capital  8  4   79.7 -1
7 George Marshall 8 4 9.22 2.78 -1.22 79.7 326 209 0.61 5 AAA Northern Liberty  4  6   52.5 -4
8 Green Run 10 2 11.17 0.83 -1.17 93.1 338 129 0.72 5 AAA Eastern Beach  10  2   96.1 0
9 John Marshall 6 4 6.91 3.09 -0.91 65.9 275 204 0.57 5 AAA Central Colonial  3  7   40.4 -3
10 Fauquier 8 3 8.73 2.27 -0.73 88.3 316 192 0.62 5 AAA Northwest Cedar Run  7  3   78.9 -1
11 James Madison 8 3 8.61 2.39 -0.61 86.0 270 168 0.62 5 AAA Northern Liberty  7  5   73.6 -1
12 Yorktown 5 5 5.57 4.43 -0.57 60.1 257 236 0.52 5 AAA Northern National  6  5   63.6 1
13 Lake Taylor 10 1 10.55 0.45 -0.55 87.4 321 100 0.76 5 AAA Eastern Eastern  12  1   106.3 2
14 Douglas Freeman 3 7 3.54 6.46 -0.54 53.1 185 231 0.44 5 AAA Central Colonial  6  5   62.6 3
15 Phoebus 13 1 13.54 0.46 -0.54 105.4 502 144 0.78 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  15  0   123.3 2
16 Dinwiddie 9 2 9.50 1.50 -0.50 79.8 402 203 0.66 5 AAA Central Central  12  2   95.1 3
17 Booker T. Washington 5 5 5.44 4.56 -0.44 62.9 174 163 0.52 5 AAA Eastern Eastern  3  7   63.0 -2
18 William Fleming 7 3 7.40 2.60 -0.40 71.2 221 150 0.60 5 AAA Northwest Western Valley  9  2   75.5 2
19 Cosby(C) 5 5 5.36 4.64 -0.36 62.7 213 202 0.51 5 AAA Central Dominion  6  4   74.4 1
20 J.E.B. Stuart 0 10 0.29 9.71 -0.29 27.5 123 454 0.21 5 AAA Northern National  1  9   26.3 1
21 Mount Vernon 5 6 5.25 5.75 -0.25 60.7 260 269 0.49 5 AAA Northern National  9  3   74.8 4
22 Stone Bridge * 14 1 14.24 0.76 -0.24 108.2 603 204 0.75 5 AAA Northern Liberty  13  1   98.3 -1
23 George Wythe(R) 0 10 0.19 9.81 -0.19 29.1 80 344 0.19 5 AAA Central Dominion  0  10   34.2 0
24 Albemarle 5 5 5.16 4.84 -0.16 62.1 259 253 0.51 5 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  4  6   51.6 -1
25 Woodrow Wilson 0 10 0.15 9.85 -0.15 25.6 66 312 0.17 5 AAA Eastern Eastern  1  9   43.1 1
26 Grassfield 0 10 0.11 9.89 -0.11 43.8 54 282 0.16 5 AAA Eastern Southeastern  7  4   87.9 7
27 Norcom 4 6 4.07 5.93 -0.07 51.0 153 176 0.47 5 AAA Eastern Eastern  7  3   77.1 3
28 Brooke Point 9 2 9.05 1.95 -0.05 88.3 309 175 0.64 5 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  9  2   82.7 0
29 Huguenot 4 6 4.05 5.95 -0.05 59.0 202 233 0.46 5 AAA Central Dominion  2  8   47.5 -2
30 Churchland 6 4 6.04 3.96 -0.04 65.1 180 154 0.54 5 AAA Eastern Eastern  6  5   80.8 0
31 Colonial Forge 4 6 3.92 6.08 0.08 60.2 165 194 0.46 5 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  6  4   63.3 2
32 Great Bridge 8 3 7.82 3.18 0.18 88.0 261 187 0.58 5 AAA Eastern Southeastern  6  4   79.3 -2
33 Wakefield 3 7 2.70 7.30 0.30 46.2 195 282 0.41 5 AAA Northern National  3  7   48.5 0
34 McLean 2 8 1.69 8.31 0.31 48.8 136 245 0.36 5 AAA Northern Liberty  0  10   30.8 -2
35 GW-Danville 10 2 9.69 2.31 0.31 93.4 473 278 0.63 5 AAA Northwest Western Valley  7  5   71.7 -3
36 Patrick Henry(R) 2 8 1.65 8.35 0.35 42.6 140 255 0.35 5 AAA Northwest Western Valley  1  9   30.6 -1
37 Hayfield 1 9 0.51 9.49 0.49 56.8 121 357 0.25 5 AAA Northern Patriot  1  9   44.0 0
38 Indian River 7 6 6.50 6.50 0.50 82.7 202 202 0.50 5 AAA Eastern Southeastern  7  4   87.9 0
39 Colonial Heights 1 9 0.45 9.55 0.55 34.2 123 382 0.24 5 AAA Central Central  2  8   40.1 1
40 Liberty(Beal) 7 3 6.37 3.63 0.63 85.8 207 168 0.55 5 AAA Northwest Cedar Run  10  3   84.6 3
41 Armstrong 2 8 1.35 8.65 0.65 42.7 122 243 0.33 5 AAA Central Capital  2  8   40.4 0
42 Heritage(NN) 7 4 6.30 4.70 0.70 82.8 213 191 0.53 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  1  9   56.6 -6
43 E.C. Glass 1 9 0.28 9.72 0.72 42.4 79 295 0.21 5 AAA Northwest Western Valley  4  6   54.0 3
44 Deep Creek 4 6 3.25 6.75 0.75 66.8 170 223 0.43 5 AAA Eastern Southeastern  2  8   57.3 -2
45 Thomas Jefferson(A) 1 9 0.22 9.78 0.78 42.6 85 345 0.20 5 AAA Northern Liberty  4  7   55.8 3
46 Potomac 13 1 12.22 1.78 0.78 106.0 408 200 0.67 5 AAA Northwest Cardinal  5  5   72.7 -8
47 Thomas Jefferson(R) 1 9 0.20 9.80 0.80 34.2 93 391 0.19 5 AAA Central Colonial  0  10   23.1 -1
48 R.E. Lee(S) 2 9 1.20 9.80 0.80 67.9 137 298 0.31 5 AAA Northern Patriot  3  8   60.7 1
49 Denbigh 3 7 2.05 7.95 0.95 63.8 132 218 0.38 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  4  6   77.2 1
50 Princess Anne 1 9 0.04 9.96 0.96 46.3 36 291 0.11 5 AAA Eastern Beach  0  10   39.2 -1
51 Kecoughtan 2 8 1.00 9.00 1.00 55.7 91 205 0.31 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  5  5   77.0 3
52 Nansemond River 3 7 1.90 8.10 1.10 59.9 148 253 0.37 5 AAA Eastern Southeastern  1  9   48.1 -2
53 North Stafford 4 6 2.84 7.16 1.16 66.5 162 228 0.42 5 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  1  9   39.1 -3
54 Hopewell 4 6 2.76 7.24 1.24 56.0 179 256 0.41 5 AAA Central Central  2  8   47.6 -2
55 Midlothian 2 8 0.67 9.33 1.33 40.0 107 284 0.27 5 AAA Central Dominion  2  8   52.3 0
56 Warwick 6 5 4.62 6.38 1.38 79.0 198 223 0.47 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  6  5   85.9 0
57 Norview 3 7 1.61 8.39 1.39 46.6 103 190 0.35 5 AAA Eastern Eastern  6  4   73.9 3
58 Lakeland 3 7 1.59 8.41 1.41 59.9 161 298 0.35 5 AAA Eastern Southeastern  3  7   62.7 0
59 Freedom 2 8 0.56 9.44 1.44 60.5 99 281 0.26 5 AAA Northwest Cardinal  2  8   53.4 0
60 Falls Church 3 7 1.46 8.54 1.54 44.8 183 352 0.34 5 AAA Northern National  1  9   34.0 -2
61 Washington-Lee 4 6 2.11 7.89 1.89 50.6 148 241 0.38 5 AAA Northern National  5  6   55.8 1
62 Halifax County 6 4 4.09 5.91 1.91 66.9 212 243 0.47 5 AAA Northwest Western Valley  3  7   42.1 -3
63 South Lakes 3 7 1.05 8.95 1.95 57.9 147 325 0.31 5 AAA Northern Liberty  2  8   43.6 -1
64 Monacan 6 5 3.92 7.08 2.08 67.6 139 173 0.45 5 AAA Central Dominion  7  4   74.3 1
65 Atlee 3 7 0.61 9.39 2.39 49.5 122 335 0.27 5 AAA Central Capital  2  8   46.3 -1
66 Kings Fork 7 3 4.13 5.87 2.87 84.7 173 197 0.47 5 AAA Eastern Southeastern  4  6   69.2 -3