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1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2007 Division 6 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W		 ACT
L		 Proj
W		 Proj
L		 ACT
vs
Proj
Diff		 State
Rating		 PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W		 YR+1
L		 YR+1
Rate
YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 Centreville 6 5 8.69 2.31 -2.69 85.6 183 112 0.62 6 AAA Northern Concorde  1  9   52.8 -5
2 Bayside 7 4 9.39 1.61 -2.39 81.2 286 149 0.66 6 AAA Eastern Beach  4  6   64.0 -3
3 Deep Run 6 4 8.34 1.66 -2.34 68.5 322 177 0.65 6 AAA Central Colonial  9  1   80.7 3
4 Kellam 5 5 7.22 2.78 -2.22 71.3 245 172 0.59 6 AAA Eastern Beach  8  4   83.0 3
5 Lake Braddock 8 3 10.02 0.98 -2.02 92.5 293 124 0.70 6 AAA Northern Patriot  5  5   67.2 -3
6 Meadowbrook 9 3 10.79 1.21 -1.79 86.8 380 169 0.69 6 AAA Central Central  9  3   91.8 0
7 Chantilly 8 3 9.77 1.23 -1.77 97.9 336 156 0.68 6 AAA Northern Concorde  9  4   95.7 1
8 Clover Hill 3 7 4.60 5.40 -1.60 51.1 215 228 0.49 6 AAA Central Dominion  8  2   87.5 5
9 Landstown 5 5 6.58 3.42 -1.58 70.6 255 200 0.56 6 AAA Eastern Beach  4  6   64.0 -1
10 Varina 7 3 8.55 1.45 -1.55 84.0 276 143 0.66 6 AAA Central Capital  12  1   100.7 5
11 Hermitage 11 2 12.13 0.87 -1.13 96.0 497 187 0.73 6 AAA Central Colonial  8  3   83.3 -3
12 C.D. Hylton 3 7 4.07 5.93 -1.07 65.5 161 185 0.47 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal  7  4   83.3 4
13 Oakton 5 5 5.99 4.01 -0.99 85.6 231 199 0.54 6 AAA Northern Concorde  13  1   109.7 8
14 W.T. Woodson 5 5 5.93 4.07 -0.93 79.8 254 221 0.53 6 AAA Northern Liberty  7  4   77.2 2
15 Oscar Smith 13 1 13.91 0.09 -0.91 106.9 558 85 0.87 6 AAA Eastern Southeastern  15  0   112.0 2
16 Bethel 10 2 10.90 1.10 -0.90 96.9 358 153 0.70 6 AAA Eastern Peninsula  8  4   92.5 -2
17 Osbourn 4 6 4.89 5.11 -0.89 73.2 178 181 0.50 6 AAA Northwest Cedar Run  9  5   91.5 5
18 Loudoun Valley 2 8 2.73 7.27 -0.73 60.0 188 270 0.41 6 AAA Northwest Cedar Run  1  9   51.7 -1
19 Highland Springs 10 1 10.72 0.28 -0.72 95.1 449 117 0.79 6 AAA Central Capital  8  2   83.9 -2
20 Western Branch 10 2 10.68 1.32 -0.68 97.5 347 160 0.68 6 AAA Eastern Southeastern  8  3   91.5 -2
21 Salem(VB) 12 1 12.66 0.34 -0.66 101.6 482 126 0.79 6 AAA Eastern Beach  5  6   69.4 -7
22 Gar-Field 7 5 7.61 4.39 -0.61 85.9 228 186 0.55 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal  4  6   63.3 -3
23 L.C. Bird 10 1 10.52 0.48 -0.52 91.3 342 109 0.76 6 AAA Central Dominion  9  2   91.7 -1
24 Woodside 5 6 5.47 5.53 -0.47 74.5 237 238 0.50 6 AAA Eastern Peninsula  6  5   84.8 1
25 Langley 6 4 6.38 3.62 -0.38 83.1 222 180 0.55 6 AAA Northern Liberty  5  5   71.9 -1
26 T.C. Williams 4 6 4.34 5.66 -0.34 74.4 135 149 0.48 6 AAA Northern Patriot  3  7   59.8 -1
27 James Robinson 6 6 6.32 5.68 -0.32 92.5 235 226 0.51 6 AAA Northern Concorde  5  5   80.5 -1
28 James River(C) 7 3 7.28 2.72 -0.28 72.2 236 164 0.59 6 AAA Central Dominion  3  7   53.7 -4
29 Matoaca 6 4 6.20 3.80 -0.20 73.6 313 261 0.55 6 AAA Central Central  5  5   71.5 -1
30 Manchester 8 2 8.19 1.81 -0.19 79.7 271 155 0.64 6 AAA Central Dominion  8  2   85.8 0
31 Kempsville 0 10 0.12 9.88 -0.12 40.2 70 361 0.16 6 AAA Eastern Beach  3  7   57.4 3
32 Franklin County 4 6 4.10 5.90 -0.10 61.3 193 221 0.47 6 AAA Northwest Western Valley  5  5   65.3 1
33 Culpeper County 2 8 2.08 7.92 -0.08 52.2 172 282 0.38 6 AAA Northwest Cedar Run  0  10   40.8 -2
34 Gloucester 1 9 1.04 8.96 -0.04 47.9 138 306 0.31 6 AAA Eastern Peninsula  1  9   56.8 0
35 J.R. Tucker 0 10 0.01 9.99 -0.01 33.7 29 452 0.06 6 AAA Central Colonial  3  7   47.2 3
36 Lee-Davis 2 8 1.98 8.02 0.02 52.3 147 247 0.37 6 AAA Central Capital  4  6   62.6 2
37 Woodbridge 9 5 8.97 5.03 0.03 90.1 295 238 0.55 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal  11  1   98.6 2
38 Forest Park 5 5 4.77 5.23 0.23 72.8 206 213 0.49 6 AAA Northwest Cardinal  4  6   63.6 -1
39 Westfield * 15 0 14.72 0.28 0.28 118.6 573 132 0.81 6 AAA Northern Concorde  9  3   95.7 -6
40 Battlefield 9 2 8.70 2.30 0.30 97.4 275 168 0.62 6 AAA Northwest Cedar Run  10  1   98.5 1
41 Granby 2 8 1.64 8.36 0.36 46.6 118 216 0.35 6 AAA Eastern Eastern  1  9   50.9 -1
42 Riverbend 2 8 1.60 8.40 0.40 50.3 180 333 0.35 6 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  1  9   43.3 -1
43 Osbourn Park 3 7 2.53 7.47 0.47 66.0 160 239 0.40 6 AAA Northwest Cedar Run  4  6   63.6 1
44 Mountain View 2 8 1.48 8.52 0.52 51.2 151 289 0.34 6 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  6  4   65.0 4
45 Prince George 5 5 4.46 5.54 0.54 61.4 204 221 0.48 6 AAA Central Central  4  6   67.8 -1
46 West Potomac 8 4 7.33 4.67 0.67 92.5 254 215 0.54 6 AAA Northern Patriot  6  4   74.8 -2
47 Annandale 4 6 3.16 6.84 0.84 74.1 199 265 0.43 6 AAA Northern Patriot  7  4   82.2 3
48 Fairfax 2 8 1.14 8.86 0.86 61.1 141 301 0.32 6 AAA Northern Concorde  4  6   66.4 2
49 Massaponax 9 2 8.14 2.86 0.86 85.3 327 222 0.60 6 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  5  5   62.7 -4
50 Stonewall Jackson(M) 4 6 3.11 6.89 0.89 66.0 172 231 0.43 6 AAA Northwest Cedar Run  3  7   57.9 -1
51 Tallwood 4 6 3.02 6.98 0.98 64.5 173 236 0.42 6 AAA Eastern Beach  4  6   64.0 0
52 West Springfield 10 3 8.88 4.12 1.12 104.9 461 347 0.57 6 AAA Northern Patriot  8  4   89.0 -2
53 Ocean Lakes 8 3 6.83 4.17 1.17 86.7 293 244 0.55 6 AAA Eastern Beach  12  1   100.2 4
54 South County 6 5 4.69 6.31 1.31 87.2 258 288 0.47 6 AAA Northern Patriot  6  5   77.0 0
55 First Colonial 3 7 1.26 8.74 1.74 58.5 125 256 0.33 6 AAA Eastern Beach  2  8   51.3 -1
56 Hickory 3 7 1.26 8.74 1.74 59.9 103 211 0.33 6 AAA Eastern Southeastern  3  7   61.9 0
57 Frank Cox 3 7 1.16 8.84 1.84 59.1 101 214 0.32 6 AAA Eastern Beach  7  4   79.1 4
58 Menchville 2 8 0.14 9.86 1.86 52.1 70 341 0.17 6 AAA Eastern Peninsula  2  8   59.5 0
59 Maury 6 5 4.09 6.91 1.91 68.9 224 272 0.45 6 AAA Eastern Eastern  4  6   69.4 -2
60 Henrico 4 6 2.02 7.98 1.98 58.3 154 256 0.38 6 AAA Central Capital  3  7   54.4 -1
61 Thomas Dale 5 5 2.95 7.05 2.05 69.2 168 232 0.42 6 AAA Central Central  6  4   82.2 1
62 Herndon 5 5 2.77 7.23 2.23 78.8 176 251 0.41 6 AAA Northern Concorde  6  5   78.3 1
63 Mills Godwin 8 2 5.68 4.32 2.32 83.2 301 272 0.53 6 AAA Central Colonial  2  8   42.7 -6