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1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2008 Division 1 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W		 ACT
L		 Proj
W		 Proj
L		 ACT
vs
Proj
Diff		 State
Rating		 PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W		 YR+1
L		 YR+1
Rate
YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 Eastern Montgomery 5 6 7.47 3.53 -2.47 19.2 252 191 0.57 1 A C Three Rivers  8  3   27.1 3
2 Sussex Central 7 4 9.28 1.72 -2.28 45.5 332 178 0.65 1 A A Tri-Rivers  10  2   50.1 3
3 Narrows 6 4 8.18 1.82 -2.18 19.9 237 136 0.64 1 A C Mtn. Empire  3  8   -0.4 -3
4 West Point 7 4 9.14 1.86 -2.14 34.6 393 218 0.64 1 A A Tidewater  11  2   52.2 4
5 William Campbell 11 2 12.86 0.14 -1.86 71.5 522 98 0.84 1 A B Dogwood  3  7   37.4 -8
6 Franklin * 12 2 13.50 0.50 -1.50 65.5 458 135 0.77 1 A A Tri-Rivers  8  3   41.3 -4
7 J.I. Burton 10 2 11.43 0.57 -1.43 53.7 462 152 0.75 1 A D Lonesome Pine  11  3   43.9 1
8 Bath County 8 4 8.91 3.09 -0.91 23.5 287 194 0.60 1 A C Pioneer  8  5   27.3 0
9 Castlewood 7 3 7.63 2.37 -0.63 23.5 296 192 0.61 1 A D Cumberland  2  8   -10.0 -5
10 Lunenburg 1 9 1.59 8.41 -0.59 9.2 155 287 0.35 1 A B James River  6  4   36.6 5
11 Holston 10 3 10.53 2.47 -0.53 36.1 349 204 0.63 1 A C Hogoheegee  11  2   38.6 1
12 Bland(RG) 9 2 9.52 1.48 -0.52 29.0 313 157 0.67 1 A C Mtn. Empire  2  8   -7.9 -7
13 Riverheads 7 4 7.33 3.67 -0.33 40.4 283 219 0.56 1 A B Shenandoah  10  2   51.7 3
14 Colonial Beach 11 1 11.28 0.72 -0.28 58.9 402 145 0.73 1 A A Tidewater  4  6   23.4 -7
15 Ervinton 0 10 0.23 9.77 -0.23 -19.1 104 416 0.20 1 A D Cumberland  4  6   -18.4 4
16 Buffalo Gap 11 1 11.20 0.80 -0.20 52.4 451 170 0.73 1 A B Shenandoah  6  5   37.0 -5
17 Covington 0 10 0.18 9.82 -0.18 -14.6 102 448 0.19 1 A C Pioneer  6  5   16.0 6
18 Cumberland 8 3 8.09 2.91 -0.09 52.0 247 169 0.59 1 A B James River  3  7   27.8 -5
19 King & Queen 0 10 0.07 9.93 -0.07 -1.0 78 485 0.14 1 A A Tidewater  1  9   9.5 1
20 Chincoteague 1 3 0.99 3.01 0.01 -12.6 79 119 0.40 1 A A Eastern Shore-A  2  2   18.7 1
21 Surry 4 6 3.90 6.10 0.10 21.0 210 248 0.46 1 A A Tri-Rivers  1  9   8.1 -3
22 Rye Cove 4 6 3.89 6.11 0.11 15.6 242 286 0.46 1 A D Cumberland  1  9   -15.0 -3
23 Altavista 5 5 4.76 5.24 0.24 37.2 168 174 0.49 1 A B Dogwood  13  1   65.4 8
24 Page 3 7 2.74 7.26 0.26 13.5 191 274 0.41 1 A B Shenandoah  1  9   9.0 -2
25 Parry McCluer 3 7 2.74 7.26 0.26 5.2 207 297 0.41 1 A C Pioneer  1  9   0.9 -2
26 Craig County 2 8 1.69 8.31 0.31 -12.3 210 379 0.36 1 A C Pioneer  2  8   -16.3 0
27 Nelson County 3 7 2.61 7.39 0.39 29.8 204 300 0.40 1 A B Dogwood  2  8   38.0 -1
28 Charles City 1 9 0.52 9.48 0.48 8.3 136 399 0.25 1 A A Tri-Rivers  4  7   22.1 3
29 Northwood 1 9 0.50 9.50 0.50 -4.1 117 348 0.25 1 A C Hogoheegee  1  9   0.3 0
30 Amelia County 5 5 4.48 5.52 0.52 27.0 223 241 0.48 1 A B James River  2  8   17.4 -3
31 Twin Valley 1 9 0.43 9.57 0.57 -12.7 110 346 0.24 1 A D Black Diamond  0  10   -22.9 -1
32 Hurley 5 4 4.40 4.60 0.60 2.6 238 242 0.50 1 A D Black Diamond  7  3   13.7 2
33 Thomas Walker 6 5 5.36 5.64 0.64 27.5 313 319 0.50 1 A D Cumberland  6  5   14.9 0
34 Manassas Park 2 8 1.26 8.74 0.74 25.7 128 262 0.33 1 A B Bull Run  2  8   24.2 0
35 Rappahannock 3 7 2.22 7.78 0.78 24.1 166 264 0.39 1 A A Northern Neck  2  8   23.3 -1
36 Stonewall Jackson(Q) 3 7 2.11 7.89 0.89 13.5 152 248 0.38 1 A B Shenandoah  2  8   17.2 -1
37 Mathews 4 6 2.98 7.02 1.02 21.3 193 265 0.42 1 A A Tidewater  4  6   22.0 0
38 Luray 4 6 2.86 7.14 1.14 23.4 183 257 0.42 1 A B Shenandoah  4  6   26.6 0
39 Galax 3 7 1.81 8.19 1.19 -0.3 170 297 0.36 1 A C Mtn. Empire  3  7   -0.3 0
40 Rural Retreat 2 8 0.80 9.20 1.20 6.8 133 328 0.29 1 A C Hogoheegee  4  8   16.6 2
41 Northumberland 6 4 4.78 5.22 1.22 34.6 214 221 0.49 1 A A Northern Neck  4  6   19.7 -2
42 Twin Springs 6 4 4.39 5.61 1.61 24.7 211 231 0.48 1 A D Cumberland  5  5   5.7 -1