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1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2008 Division 5 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W		 ACT
L		 Proj
W		 Proj
L		 ACT
vs
Proj
Diff		 State
Rating		 PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W		 YR+1
L		 YR+1
Rate
YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 Petersburg 5 5 7.75 2.25 -2.75 63.0 305 193 0.61 5 AAA Central Central  6  6   66.0 1
2 Norcom 7 3 9.43 0.57 -2.43 77.1 254 90 0.74 5 AAA Eastern Eastern  8  3   84.0 1
3 Cosby(C) 6 4 8.24 1.76 -2.24 74.4 303 171 0.64 5 AAA Central Dominion  7  3   71.0 1
4 Hanover 8 4 10.17 1.83 -2.17 79.7 313 166 0.65 5 AAA Central Capital  9  4   78.4 1
5 Patrick Henry(A) 6 4 7.75 2.25 -1.75 63.6 248 157 0.61 5 AAA Central Colonial  3  7   46.7 -3
6 Warwick 6 5 7.74 3.26 -1.74 85.9 274 199 0.58 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  6  5   75.1 0
7 Liberty(Beal) 10 3 11.49 1.51 -1.49 84.6 477 225 0.68 5 AAA Northwest Cedar Run  8  4   66.5 -2
8 Fauquier 7 3 8.36 1.64 -1.36 78.9 342 187 0.65 5 AAA Northwest Cedar Run  5  5   53.2 -2
9 Colonial Forge 6 4 7.20 2.80 -1.20 63.3 261 184 0.59 5 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  9  2   93.4 3
10 Monacan 7 4 8.03 2.97 -1.03 74.3 282 195 0.59 5 AAA Central Dominion  3  7   47.2 -4
11 Indian River 7 4 8.02 2.98 -1.02 87.9 248 172 0.59 5 AAA Eastern Southeastern  0  10   42.5 -7
12 Lakeland 3 7 3.90 6.10 -0.90 62.7 167 197 0.46 5 AAA Eastern Southeastern  6  4   75.4 3
13 Stone Bridge 13 1 13.78 0.22 -0.78 98.3 648 139 0.82 5 AAA Northern Liberty  13  2   92.3 0
14 McLean 0 10 0.72 9.28 -0.72 30.8 142 365 0.28 5 AAA Northern Liberty  6  5   60.9 6
15 Albemarle 4 6 4.69 5.31 -0.69 51.6 254 266 0.49 5 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  0  10   37.1 -4
16 Dinwiddie 12 2 12.66 1.34 -0.66 95.1 565 246 0.70 5 AAA Central Central  6  5   66.5 -6
17 Wakefield 3 7 3.52 6.48 -0.52 48.5 205 257 0.44 5 AAA Northern National  1  9   27.6 -2
18 John Marshall 3 7 3.46 6.54 -0.46 40.4 166 210 0.44 5 AAA Central Colonial  5  5   52.0 2
19 Princess Anne 0 10 0.46 9.54 -0.46 39.2 78 240 0.25 5 AAA Eastern Beach  0  10   42.7 0
20 Lake Taylor 12 1 12.45 0.55 -0.45 106.3 387 122 0.76 5 AAA Eastern Eastern  10  3   93.6 -2
21 Hayfield 1 9 1.41 8.59 -0.41 44.0 167 326 0.34 5 AAA Northern Patriot  9  3   69.6 8
22 Thomas Edison 12 1 12.39 0.61 -0.39 95.7 476 156 0.75 5 AAA Northern National  7  4   62.4 -5
23 Heritage(NN) 1 9 1.33 8.67 -0.33 56.6 139 278 0.33 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  1  9   50.5 0
24 Green Run 10 2 10.33 1.67 -0.33 96.1 330 168 0.66 5 AAA Eastern Beach  5  5   73.1 -5
25 William Fleming 9 2 9.31 1.69 -0.31 75.5 273 145 0.65 5 AAA Northwest Western Valley  6  3   70.9 -3
26 Brooke Point 9 2 9.31 1.69 -0.31 82.7 395 210 0.65 5 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  7  5   81.5 -2
27 Falls Church 1 9 1.30 8.70 -0.30 34.0 168 340 0.33 5 AAA Northern National  5  5   47.8 4
28 James Madison 7 5 7.14 4.86 -0.14 73.6 255 221 0.54 5 AAA Northern Liberty  7  5   71.9 0
29 Halifax County 3 7 3.14 6.86 -0.14 42.1 200 267 0.43 5 AAA Northwest Western Valley  1  9   38.9 -2
30 George Wythe(R) 0 10 0.06 9.94 -0.06 34.2 58 383 0.13 5 AAA Central Dominion  0  9   23.8 0
31 Thomas Jefferson(R) 0 10 0.01 9.99 -0.01 23.1 33 481 0.06 5 AAA Central Colonial  0  10   21.2 0
32 Phoebus * 15 0 14.99 0.01 0.01 123.3 720 53 0.93 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  15  0   109.9 0
33 North Stafford 1 9 0.96 9.04 0.04 39.1 156 358 0.30 5 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  7  4   80.2 6
34 Stafford 5 5 4.86 5.14 0.14 68.2 294 300 0.49 5 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  2  8   58.0 -3
35 Hampton 10 2 9.79 2.21 0.21 102.0 326 188 0.63 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  8  4   87.4 -2
36 Douglas Freeman 6 5 5.74 5.26 0.26 62.6 247 239 0.51 5 AAA Central Colonial  2  8   42.0 -4
37 Patrick Henry(R) 1 9 0.70 9.30 0.30 30.6 140 365 0.28 5 AAA Northwest Western Valley  3  7   50.8 2
38 J.E.B. Stuart 1 9 0.70 9.30 0.30 26.3 141 368 0.28 5 AAA Northern National  3  7   38.6 2
39 GW-Danville 7 5 6.68 5.32 0.32 71.7 361 332 0.52 5 AAA Northwest Western Valley  5  5   66.4 -2
40 Midlothian 2 8 1.54 8.46 0.46 52.3 160 301 0.35 5 AAA Central Dominion  2  8   38.0 0
41 R.E. Lee(S) 3 8 2.50 8.50 0.50 60.7 180 283 0.39 5 AAA Northern Patriot  9  4   84.3 6
42 South Lakes 2 8 1.45 8.55 0.55 43.6 128 247 0.34 5 AAA Northern Liberty  5  6   56.6 3
43 Yorktown 6 5 5.38 5.62 0.62 63.6 243 247 0.50 5 AAA Northern National  6  5   51.9 0
44 Churchland 6 5 5.38 5.62 0.62 80.8 182 185 0.50 5 AAA Eastern Eastern  7  4   85.8 1
45 Nansemond River 1 9 0.21 9.79 0.79 48.1 91 381 0.19 5 AAA Eastern Southeastern  2  8   51.0 1
46 Woodrow Wilson 1 9 0.20 9.80 0.80 43.1 61 260 0.19 5 AAA Eastern Eastern  2  8   52.9 1
47 Colonial Heights 2 8 1.14 8.86 0.86 40.1 131 280 0.32 5 AAA Central Central  4  6   50.0 2
48 Armstrong 2 8 1.07 8.93 0.93 40.4 115 252 0.31 5 AAA Central Capital  1  9   30.3 -1
49 Freedom 2 8 1.04 8.96 0.96 53.4 138 306 0.31 5 AAA Northwest Cardinal  0  10   41.3 -2
50 Hopewell 2 8 0.99 9.01 1.01 47.6 163 369 0.31 5 AAA Central Central  2  8   44.6 0
51 Kecoughtan 5 5 3.92 6.08 1.08 77.0 203 239 0.46 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  4  6   69.5 -1
52 Huguenot 2 8 0.90 9.10 1.10 47.5 126 297 0.30 5 AAA Central Dominion  3  7   46.6 1
53 Great Bridge 6 4 4.87 5.13 1.13 79.3 260 265 0.50 5 AAA Eastern Southeastern  9  3   89.3 3
54 Kings Fork 4 6 2.84 7.16 1.16 69.2 159 224 0.42 5 AAA Eastern Southeastern  3  7   60.1 -1
55 Norview 6 4 4.83 5.17 1.17 73.9 231 237 0.49 5 AAA Eastern Eastern  3  7   60.5 -3
56 Mount Vernon 9 3 7.73 4.27 1.27 74.8 325 261 0.55 5 AAA Northern National  0  10   19.9 -9
57 Atlee 2 8 0.71 9.29 1.29 46.3 103 267 0.28 5 AAA Central Capital  5  5   58.4 3
58 E.C. Glass 4 6 2.70 7.30 1.30 54.0 168 243 0.41 5 AAA Northwest Western Valley  1  9   40.8 -3
59 Deep Creek 2 8 0.66 9.34 1.34 57.3 98 261 0.27 5 AAA Eastern Southeastern  5  5   72.2 3
60 Grassfield 7 4 5.62 5.38 1.38 87.9 190 187 0.50 5 AAA Eastern Southeastern  9  3   90.2 2
61 Washington-Lee 5 6 3.39 7.61 1.61 55.8 189 255 0.43 5 AAA Northern National  5  5   49.3 0
62 George Marshall 4 6 2.32 7.68 1.68 52.5 165 257 0.39 5 AAA Northern Liberty  1  9   37.2 -3
63 Potomac 5 5 3.27 6.73 1.73 72.7 157 205 0.43 5 AAA Northwest Cardinal  2  8   56.4 -3
64 Denbigh 4 6 1.87 8.13 2.13 77.2 201 346 0.37 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  5  5   72.2 1
65 Booker T. Washington 3 7 0.64 9.36 2.36 63.0 95 256 0.27 5 AAA Eastern Eastern  5  5   76.2 2
66 Thomas Jefferson(A) 4 7 1.28 9.72 2.72 55.8 186 394 0.32 5 AAA Northern Concorde  0  10   26.8 -4