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1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2009 Division 1 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W		 ACT
L		 Proj
W		 Proj
L		 ACT
vs
Proj
Diff		 State
Rating		 PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W		 YR+1
L		 YR+1
Rate
YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 J.I. Burton 11 3 13.44 0.56 -2.44 43.9 367 113 0.76 1 A D Lonesome Pine  10  2   54.2 -1
2 Franklin 8 3 9.83 1.17 -1.83 41.3 323 147 0.69 1 A A Tri-Rivers  11  2   46.4 3
3 Hurley 7 3 8.71 1.29 -1.71 13.7 298 147 0.67 1 A D Black Diamond  7  4   24.9 0
4 Holston 11 2 12.49 0.51 -1.49 38.6 398 122 0.77 1 A C Hogoheegee  3  7   1.3 -8
5 Luray 4 6 5.32 4.68 -1.32 26.6 218 208 0.51 1 A B Shenandoah  3  7   16.4 -1
6 Eastern Montgomery 8 3 9.29 1.71 -1.29 27.1 440 235 0.65 1 A C Three Rivers  13  1   61.1 5
7 Buffalo Gap 6 5 7.29 3.71 -1.29 37.0 235 183 0.56 1 A B Shenandoah  3  7   14.5 -3
8 Sussex Central 10 2 11.27 0.73 -1.27 50.1 446 162 0.73 1 A A Tri-Rivers  8  4   45.6 -2
9 Madison County 9 2 10.11 0.89 -1.11 53.8 340 138 0.71 1 A B Bull Run  8  3   42.7 -1
10 West Point 11 2 12.06 0.94 -1.06 52.2 505 196 0.72 1 A A Tidewater  7  3   27.9 -4
11 Bath County 8 5 8.87 4.13 -0.87 27.3 357 269 0.57 1 A C Pioneer  6  5   33.0 -2
12 Colonial Beach 4 6 4.59 5.41 -0.59 23.4 224 238 0.48 1 A A Northern Neck  6  5   31.4 2
13 Page 1 9 1.42 8.58 -0.42 9.0 176 343 0.34 1 A B Shenandoah  0  10   -4.1 -1
14 William Campbell 3 7 3.36 6.64 -0.36 37.4 244 314 0.44 1 A B Dogwood  3  7   30.9 0
15 Twin Valley 0 10 0.06 9.94 -0.06 -22.9 62 414 0.13 1 A D Black Diamond  1  9   -16.5 1
16 Altavista * 13 1 13.01 0.99 -0.01 65.4 407 157 0.72 1 A B Dogwood  10  2   57.0 -3
17 Riverheads 10 2 9.89 2.11 0.11 51.7 392 221 0.64 1 A B Shenandoah  13  1   61.5 3
18 Lunenburg 6 4 5.85 4.15 0.15 36.6 185 163 0.53 1 A B James River  6  4   36.0 0
19 Rye Cove 1 9 0.84 9.16 0.16 -15.0 128 310 0.29 1 A D Cumberland  2  8   2.7 1
20 Northumberland 4 6 3.73 6.27 0.27 19.7 217 263 0.45 1 A A Northern Neck  5  5   18.9 1
21 Amelia County 2 8 1.67 8.33 0.33 17.4 128 232 0.36 1 A B James River  7  4   49.1 5
22 Galax 3 7 2.63 7.37 0.37 -0.3 172 252 0.41 1 A C Mtn. Empire  9  4   40.5 6
23 Northwood 1 9 0.51 9.49 0.49 0.3 140 414 0.25 1 A C Hogoheegee  1  9   -7.3 0
24 Rappahannock 2 8 1.47 8.53 0.53 23.3 156 299 0.34 1 A A Northern Neck  3  7   20.5 1
25 Charles City 4 7 3.43 7.57 0.57 22.1 253 339 0.43 1 A A Tri-Rivers  6  5   36.3 2
26 Parry McCluer 1 9 0.40 9.60 0.60 0.9 86 279 0.24 1 A C Pioneer  1  9   4.9 0
27 Surry 1 9 0.40 9.60 0.60 8.1 104 338 0.24 1 A A Tri-Rivers  1  9   9.8 0
28 Thomas Walker 6 5 5.39 5.61 0.61 14.9 260 264 0.50 1 A D Cumberland  5  5   17.5 -1
29 Mathews 4 6 3.36 6.64 0.64 22.0 250 322 0.44 1 A A Tidewater  4  6   15.8 0
30 Castlewood 2 8 1.20 8.80 0.80 -10.0 142 297 0.32 1 A D Cumberland  6  4   18.5 4
31 King & Queen 1 9 0.18 9.82 0.82 9.5 104 457 0.19 1 A A Tidewater  0  10   -5.0 -1
32 Bland(RG) 2 8 1.04 8.96 0.96 -7.9 119 264 0.31 1 A C Mtn. Empire  2  8   1.2 0
33 Chincoteague 2 2 1.01 2.99 0.99 18.7 61 91 0.40 1 A A Eastern Shore-A  1  1   -4.7 -1
34 Craig County 2 8 0.98 9.02 1.02 -16.3 124 282 0.31 1 A C Pioneer  6  5   23.2 4
35 Stonewall Jackson(Q) 2 8 0.92 9.08 1.08 17.2 116 271 0.30 1 A B Shenandoah  3  7   15.8 1
36 Nelson County 2 8 0.83 9.17 1.17 38.0 130 316 0.29 1 A B Dogwood  1  9   23.8 -1
37 Cumberland 3 7 1.79 8.21 1.21 27.8 211 371 0.36 1 A B James River  1  9   12.2 -2
38 Narrows 3 8 1.55 9.45 1.45 -0.4 143 279 0.34 1 A C Mtn. Empire  2  8   10.9 -1
39 Twin Springs 5 5 3.45 6.55 1.55 5.7 161 204 0.44 1 A D Cumberland  6  5   18.6 1
40 Rural Retreat 4 8 2.43 9.57 1.57 16.6 203 337 0.38 1 A C Hogoheegee  4  7   14.8 0
41 Ervinton 4 6 2.43 7.57 1.57 -18.4 170 259 0.40 1 A D Cumberland  2  8   -13.8 -2
42 Covington 6 5 3.63 7.37 2.37 16.0 204 265 0.43 1 A C Pioneer  6  6   26.9 0