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1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2009 Division 2 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W		 ACT
L		 Proj
W		 Proj
L		 ACT
vs
Proj
Diff		 State
Rating		 PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W		 YR+1
L		 YR+1
Rate
YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 Lebanon 8 5 10.92 2.08 -2.92 44.0 351 190 0.65 2 A D Clinch Mountain A  5  5   40.7 -3
2 Floyd County 3 7 5.71 4.29 -2.71 28.0 209 188 0.53 2 A C Three Rivers  5  6   34.8 2
3 James River(B) 5 6 7.21 3.79 -2.21 27.3 297 234 0.56 2 A C Pioneer  5  5   29.4 0
4 Windsor 4 6 6.06 3.94 -2.06 9.7 210 179 0.54 2 A A Tri-Rivers  3  7   5.6 -1
5 Dan River 6 4 7.71 2.29 -1.71 52.6 307 196 0.61 2 A B Dogwood  6  4   51.1 0
6 Washington & Lee 8 3 9.51 1.49 -1.51 48.2 314 158 0.67 2 A A Northern Neck  6  4   37.3 -2
7 Fort Chiswell 11 2 12.36 0.64 -1.36 41.1 393 131 0.75 2 A C Mtn. Empire  9  3   37.7 -2
8 Chilhowie 7 4 8.25 2.75 -1.25 35.1 239 159 0.60 2 A C Hogoheegee  9  3   37.7 2
9 George Wythe(W) 7 4 8.23 2.77 -1.23 38.7 313 209 0.60 2 A C Hogoheegee  8  4   38.7 1
10 Gretna 10 3 11.22 1.78 -1.22 66.3 366 185 0.66 2 A B Dogwood  12  2   71.9 2
11 Radford 11 4 12.19 2.81 -1.19 50.8 386 224 0.63 2 A C Three Rivers  9  4   56.8 -2
12 King William 9 3 10.01 1.99 -1.01 54.5 393 216 0.65 2 A A Tidewater  11  2   53.0 2
13 Glenvar 7 3 7.96 2.04 -0.96 35.0 250 151 0.62 2 A C Three Rivers  6  4   37.0 -1
14 Clarke County 10 1 10.94 0.06 -0.94 59.3 514 77 0.87 2 A B Bull Run  9  2   45.7 -1
15 Lancaster 8 2 8.91 1.09 -0.91 47.6 362 166 0.69 2 A A Northern Neck  10  2   42.5 2
16 Appomattox 9 3 9.62 2.38 -0.62 62.4 359 214 0.63 2 A B Dogwood  5  5   37.4 -4
17 Buckingham County 10 1 10.53 0.47 -0.53 62.9 342 108 0.76 2 A B James River  10  2   49.1 0
18 Virginia 6 4 6.53 3.47 -0.53 34.8 331 262 0.56 2 A D Clinch Mountain A  4  6   28.2 -2
19 Randolph-Henry 6 4 6.52 3.48 -0.52 36.9 241 191 0.56 2 A B James River  6  4   36.6 0
20 Patrick Henry(GS) 2 8 2.13 7.87 -0.13 1.3 175 284 0.38 2 A C Hogoheegee  0  10   -12.8 -2
21 Arcadia 0 10 0.03 9.97 -0.03 -16.5 59 514 0.10 2 A A Eastern Shore-A  2  8   0.7 2
22 Gate City 9 1 9.01 0.99 -0.01 64.9 371 164 0.69 2 A D Clinch Mountain A  12  2   72.0 3
23 Strasburg 1 9 0.83 9.17 0.17 10.9 126 307 0.29 2 A B Bull Run  4  6   23.8 3
24 Essex * 14 0 13.77 0.23 0.23 67.5 587 128 0.82 2 A A Northern Neck  6  4   42.5 -8
25 Giles 6 5 5.53 5.47 0.47 39.1 281 280 0.50 2 A C Three Rivers  5  5   38.3 -1
26 Chatham 1 9 0.40 9.60 0.60 21.7 105 340 0.24 2 A B Dogwood  2  8   23.8 1
27 Lee 2 8 1.14 8.86 0.86 20.9 172 368 0.32 2 A D Clinch Mountain A  4  6   31.9 2
28 Grayson County 3 7 2.12 7.88 0.88 13.2 131 213 0.38 2 A C Mtn. Empire  6  5   37.7 3
29 Auburn 1 9 0.08 9.92 0.92 -3.6 68 411 0.14 2 A C Three Rivers  0  10   -0.2 -1
30 Middlesex 5 5 3.80 6.20 1.20 29.7 242 290 0.45 2 A A Tidewater  1  9   -3.1 -4
31 Manassas Park 2 8 0.62 9.38 1.38 24.2 107 292 0.27 2 A B Bull Run  7  4   41.5 5
32 Nandua 3 8 1.52 9.48 1.48 7.1 178 351 0.34 2 A A Eastern Shore-A  5  6   26.3 2
33 Central(W) 6 4 4.41 5.59 1.59 41.3 197 215 0.48 2 A B Shenandoah  6  4   35.6 0
34 Honaker 4 6 2.14 7.86 1.86 18.3 147 238 0.38 2 A D Black Diamond  7  5   38.8 3
35 John Battle 3 7 0.85 9.15 2.15 10.8 144 347 0.29 2 A D Clinch Mountain A  4  6   20.1 1
36 Northampton 3 7 0.57 9.43 2.43 9.5 131 371 0.26 2 A A Eastern Shore-A  1  8   -1.7 -2
37 George Mason 7 3 4.50 5.50 2.50 47.0 167 180 0.48 2 A B Bull Run  1  9   15.9 -6