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1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2009 Division 3 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W		 ACT
L		 Proj
W		 Proj
L		 ACT
vs
Proj
Diff		 State
Rating		 PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W		 YR+1
L		 YR+1
Rate
YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 Brunswick 5 5 8.27 1.73 -3.27 34.7 250 140 0.64 3 AA I Southside  5  5   45.6 0
2 Alleghany 6 5 8.89 2.11 -2.89 45.3 305 179 0.63 3 AA III Blue Ridge  9  3   64.5 3
3 James Monroe 8 2 9.94 0.06 -1.94 61.8 320 49 0.87 3 AA I Battlefield  9  3   68.6 1
4 Southampton 4 6 5.74 4.26 -1.74 22.7 229 205 0.53 3 AA I Southside  4  6   29.9 0
5 Marion 8 4 9.40 2.60 -1.40 47.1 285 177 0.62 3 AA IV Southwest  3  8   19.8 -5
6 Patrick County 5 5 6.30 3.70 -1.30 43.4 223 183 0.55 3 AA IV Piedmont  0  10   12.3 -5
7 Wilson Memorial 5 5 6.24 3.76 -1.24 36.0 252 209 0.55 3 AA III Southern Valley  8  2   50.9 3
8 Park View(St) 8 4 9.24 2.76 -1.24 73.7 308 197 0.61 3 AA II Dulles  5  7   57.8 -3
9 Park View(SH) 6 5 7.02 3.98 -1.02 38.3 242 196 0.55 3 AA I Southside  4  6   28.6 -2
10 Skyline 6 5 6.88 4.12 -0.88 53.4 249 206 0.55 3 AA II Northwestern  2  8   34.5 -4
11 Western Albemarle 10 2 10.75 1.25 -0.75 71.4 350 158 0.69 3 AA II Jefferson  4  7   36.2 -6
12 Richlands 10 2 10.74 1.26 -0.74 64.3 420 190 0.69 3 AA IV Southwest  13  1   80.0 3
13 Tunstall 3 7 3.66 6.34 -0.66 30.5 173 212 0.45 3 AA IV Piedmont  3  8   27.0 0
14 Nottoway 4 6 4.42 5.58 -0.42 23.4 245 267 0.48 3 AA I Southside  7  4   46.1 3
15 Rockbridge County 0 10 0.41 9.59 -0.41 21.1 120 387 0.24 3 AA III Southern Valley  3  7   36.3 3
16 Grundy 5 6 5.39 5.61 -0.39 22.7 266 270 0.50 3 AA IV Southwest  9  3   46.7 4
17 Goochland 10 2 10.32 1.68 -0.32 71.7 364 186 0.66 3 AA II Jefferson  6  5   51.9 -4
18 William Monroe 0 10 0.15 9.85 -0.15 18.5 94 446 0.17 3 AA II Jefferson  3  7   31.2 3
19 Rustburg 1 9 1.14 8.86 -0.14 27.9 139 297 0.32 3 AA III Seminole  2  8   34.0 1
20 Fluvanna 3 7 3.13 6.87 -0.13 32.9 172 230 0.43 3 AA II Jefferson  4  6   38.1 1
21 New Kent 1 9 1.13 8.87 -0.13 22.7 124 266 0.32 3 AA I Bay Rivers  1  9   26.8 0
22 Bluestone 0 10 0.01 9.99 -0.01 0.6 36 500 0.07 3 AA I Southside  0  10   3.5 0
23 Millbrook 5 6 4.91 6.09 0.09 59.5 170 184 0.48 3 AA II Northwestern  6  5   52.2 1
24 Greensville 5 6 4.73 6.27 0.27 34.2 337 374 0.47 3 AA I Southside  6  4   45.6 1
25 Stuarts Draft 5 6 4.70 6.30 0.30 52.3 243 271 0.47 3 AA III Southern Valley  6  5   49.8 1
26 Prince Edward 1 9 0.69 9.31 0.31 8.7 156 408 0.28 3 AA I Southside  1  9   9.6 0
27 Brookville 9 3 8.57 3.43 0.43 72.8 299 213 0.58 3 AA III Seminole  12  2   79.8 3
28 Fort Defiance 4 6 3.55 6.45 0.45 44.3 174 217 0.45 3 AA III Southern Valley  5  5   50.0 1
29 Handley 12 1 11.50 1.50 0.50 84.5 317 149 0.68 3 AA II Northwestern  9  5   67.9 -3
30 R.E. Lee(ST) 8 4 7.46 4.54 0.54 63.5 356 296 0.55 3 AA III Southern Valley  7  4   54.3 -1
31 Poquoson 6 6 5.40 6.60 0.60 49.2 234 252 0.48 3 AA I Bay Rivers  13  1   81.5 7
32 Liberty(Bed) 10 2 9.33 2.67 0.67 78.8 367 231 0.61 3 AA III Seminole  10  2   79.1 0
33 Waynesboro 1 9 0.24 9.76 0.76 29.2 95 376 0.20 3 AA III Southern Valley  0  10   15.4 -1
34 Cave Spring 10 3 9.24 3.76 0.76 79.9 318 228 0.58 3 AA IV River Ridge  8  4   69.6 -2
35 Tazewell 5 6 4.21 6.79 0.79 44.5 227 271 0.46 3 AA IV Southwest  1  9   17.7 -4
36 Monticello 4 6 3.20 6.80 0.80 42.2 220 291 0.43 3 AA II Jefferson  7  5   53.2 3
37 Warren County 3 7 2.19 7.81 0.81 34.8 168 269 0.38 3 AA II Evergreen  9  4   62.0 6
38 Martinsville 2 8 1.11 8.89 0.89 36.5 122 264 0.32 3 AA IV Piedmont  6  6   48.1 4
39 Northside * 12 2 11.09 2.91 0.91 86.3 366 223 0.62 3 AA III Blue Ridge  9  2   75.9 -3
40 Graham 4 7 2.82 8.18 1.18 44.6 258 383 0.40 3 AA IV Southwest  1  9   18.8 -3
41 Culpeper County 3 7 1.75 8.25 1.25 30.4 169 300 0.36 3 AA I Battlefield  3  7   41.8 0
42 Dominion 4 6 2.49 7.51 1.51 57.2 176 265 0.40 3 AA II Dulles  4  7   53.7 0
43 Charlottesville 4 6 2.45 7.55 1.55 42.5 174 264 0.40 3 AA II Jefferson  0  10   17.9 -4
44 Warhill 2 8 0.39 9.61 1.61 25.0 99 326 0.23 3 AA I Bay Rivers  3  7   30.3 1
45 Bruton 11 3 9.36 4.64 1.64 67.1 302 233 0.56 3 AA I Bay Rivers  8  3   60.5 -3
46 Kettle Run 3 7 0.99 9.01 2.01 32.4 108 245 0.31 3 AA II Evergreen  4  6   42.2 1