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1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2009 Division 4 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W
ACT
L
Proj
W
Proj
L
ACT
vs
Proj
Diff
State
Rating
PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W
YR+1
L
YR+1
Rate

YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 Courtland 6 4 9.60 0.40 -3.60 56.7 281 87 0.76 4 AA I Battlefield  8  5   68.6 2
2 Liberty(Beal) 8 4 10.88 1.12 -2.88 66.5 387 167 0.70 4 AA II Evergreen  10  2   80.2 2
3 Blacksburg 3 7 5.87 4.13 -2.87 50.8 214 188 0.53 4 AA IV River Ridge  3  7   46.6 0
4 James Wood 7 5 9.83 2.17 -2.83 53.7 320 183 0.64 4 AA II Northwestern  6  5   52.6 -1
5 Orange 4 6 6.63 3.37 -2.63 42.3 252 196 0.56 4 AA II Jefferson  7  4   57.2 3
6 Christiansburg 10 4 12.56 1.44 -2.56 74.7 417 187 0.69 4 AA IV River Ridge  12  1   83.3 2
7 Chancellor 9 3 11.30 0.70 -2.30 67.5 378 135 0.74 4 AA I Battlefield  6  4   59.5 -3
8 Louisa 7 4 9.16 1.84 -2.16 55.0 301 166 0.64 4 AA II Jefferson  11  1   76.5 4
9 Smithfield 8 3 10.00 1.00 -2.00 59.1 335 143 0.70 4 AA I Bay Rivers  6  4   40.6 -2
10 Turner Ashby 9 3 10.93 1.07 -1.93 70.3 352 149 0.70 4 AA III Massanutten  5  5   42.8 -4
11 Loudoun County 8 3 9.86 1.14 -1.86 72.6 300 135 0.69 4 AA II Dulles  5  5   56.3 -3
12 Grafton 4 6 5.85 4.15 -1.85 37.1 209 184 0.53 4 AA I Bay Rivers  8  3   61.2 4
13 Tabb 6 4 7.31 2.69 -1.31 56.8 327 226 0.59 4 AA I Bay Rivers  3  7   36.6 -3
14 Briar Woods 4 6 5.21 4.79 -1.21 59.5 164 159 0.51 4 AA II Dulles  13  2   92.7 9
15 Eastern View 6 4 7.08 2.92 -1.08 45.4 240 173 0.58 4 AA I Battlefield  8  4   65.3 2
16 Powhatan 12 1 12.92 0.08 -0.92 73.9 552 85 0.87 4 AA I Southside  10  1   64.7 -2
17 Amherst County 13 1 13.65 0.35 -0.65 90.2 608 156 0.80 4 AA III Seminole  9  3   74.6 -4
18 Jamestown 6 4 6.64 3.36 -0.64 53.5 206 160 0.56 4 AA I Bay Rivers  2  8   26.3 -4
19 Spotswood 9 3 9.34 2.66 -0.34 69.5 358 225 0.61 4 AA III Massanutten  2  8   25.0 -7
20 Magna Vista 7 5 7.30 4.70 -0.30 60.9 259 220 0.54 4 AA IV Piedmont  11  2   66.4 4
21 Hidden Valley 7 4 7.30 3.70 -0.30 72.8 261 203 0.56 4 AA IV River Ridge  0  10   28.2 -7
22 Brentsville 0 10 0.29 9.71 -0.29 17.1 89 325 0.21 4 AA II Evergreen  1  9   26.2 1
23 Carroll County 6 4 6.28 3.72 -0.28 49.8 221 182 0.55 4 AA IV Southwest  8  4   55.1 2
24 Salem 11 1 11.19 0.81 -0.19 92.8 334 126 0.73 4 AA IV River Ridge  7  4   65.1 -4
25 Pulaski County 2 8 2.17 7.83 -0.17 51.0 191 307 0.38 4 AA IV River Ridge  5  5   66.2 3
26 Heritage(Lyn) 3 7 3.10 6.90 -0.10 45.3 186 250 0.43 4 AA III Seminole  4  7   49.9 1
27 Harrisonburg 10 2 10.07 1.93 -0.07 79.9 454 246 0.65 4 AA III Massanutten  13  1   84.0 3
28 Spotsylvania 0 10 0.02 9.98 -0.02 20.2 47 495 0.09 4 AA I Battlefield  0  10   24.7 0
29 E.C. Glass 1 9 0.98 9.02 0.02 40.8 143 325 0.31 4 AA III Seminole  5  6   54.2 4
30 Abingdon 3 7 2.90 7.10 0.10 23.3 181 252 0.42 4 AA IV Southwest  6  5   38.3 3
31 Jefferson Forest 5 5 4.89 5.11 0.11 60.0 236 240 0.50 4 AA III Seminole  2  8   44.5 -3
32 Sherando 9 3 8.63 3.37 0.37 80.5 218 154 0.59 4 AA II Northwestern  8  3   67.3 -1
33 Broad Run * 14 0 13.41 0.59 0.59 97.5 492 155 0.76 4 AA II Dulles  11  2   84.3 -3
34 Broadway 5 5 4.37 5.63 0.63 54.8 214 235 0.48 4 AA III Massanutten  8  4   60.8 3
35 Fauquier 5 5 4.30 5.70 0.70 53.2 253 281 0.47 4 AA II Evergreen  8  3   69.4 3
36 Lafayette 5 5 4.09 5.91 0.91 45.5 171 196 0.47 4 AA I Bay Rivers  7  3   58.2 2
37 Staunton River 5 6 3.88 7.12 1.12 51.1 269 337 0.44 4 AA III Blue Ridge  8  4   65.3 3
38 Lord Botetourt 2 8 0.82 9.18 1.18 27.3 101 247 0.29 4 AA III Blue Ridge  3  7   34.1 1
39 King George 2 8 0.40 9.60 1.60 24.7 97 314 0.24 4 AA I Battlefield  4  6   41.5 2
40 Freedom(R) 2 8 0.26 9.74 1.74 32.3 77 294 0.21 4 AA II Dulles  4  6   41.4 2
41 Caroline 2 8 0.19 9.81 1.81 27.2 83 361 0.19 4 AA I Battlefield  2  8   35.0 0
42 York 7 4 4.98 6.02 2.02 57.8 346 371 0.48 4 AA I Bay Rivers  4  6   40.6 -3
43 William Byrd 5 6 2.97 8.03 2.03 51.4 215 311 0.41 4 AA III Blue Ridge  4  6   44.3 -1
44 Bassett 3 8 0.64 10.36 2.36 40.4 120 337 0.26 4 AA IV Piedmont  4  7   45.7 1