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1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2012 Division 1 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W
ACT
L
Proj
W
Proj
L
ACT
vs
Proj
Diff
State
Rating
PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W
YR+1
L
YR+1
Rate

YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 Rural Retreat 7 5 8.68 3.32 -1.68 30.7 337 236 0.59 1 A D-1 Western Hogoheegee  4  7   16.4 -3
2 Lunenburg 11 2 12.59 0.41 -1.59 49.7 496 140 0.78 1 A D-1 Eastern James River  10  3   45.0 -1
3 Galax 7 5 8.57 3.43 -1.57 31.6 455 324 0.58 1 A D-1 Western Mtn. Empire  7  5   35.4 0
4 Radford 3 8 4.27 6.73 -1.27 18.9 294 348 0.46 1 A D-1 Western Three Rivers  6  6   44.0 3
5 Holston 5 6 6.01 4.99 -1.01 16.7 313 292 0.52 1 A D-1 Western Hogoheegee  7  4   27.1 2
6 Eastside 8 4 8.82 3.18 -0.82 28.9 369 253 0.59 1 A D-1 Western Cumberland  5  6   10.9 -3
7 Sussex Central 12 2 12.73 1.27 -0.73 51.4 582 248 0.70 1 A D-1 Eastern Tri-Rivers  7  5   33.5 -5
8 Honaker 13 2 13.68 1.32 -0.68 53.8 490 206 0.70 1 A D-1 Western Black Diamond  10  2   41.1 -3
9 Northwood 5 6 5.64 5.36 -0.64 9.9 262 257 0.50 1 A D-1 Western Hogoheegee  6  5   17.2 1
10 Franklin 13 1 13.58 0.42 -0.58 54.8 682 189 0.78 1 A D-1 Eastern Tri-Rivers  11  2   51.3 -2
11 Thomas Walker 1 9 1.49 8.51 -0.49 -15.1 178 339 0.34 1 A D-1 Western Cumberland  1  9   -12.9 0
12 Covington 6 6 6.49 5.51 -0.49 23.7 342 322 0.52 1 A D-1 Eastern Pioneer  9  4   44.0 3
13 West Point 8 3 8.42 2.58 -0.42 33.1 409 264 0.61 1 A D-1 Eastern Tidewater  8  3   34.6 0
14 Twin Valley 1 9 1.35 8.65 -0.35 -20.9 180 358 0.33 1 A D-1 Western Black Diamond  4  6   -9.5 3
15 Rappahannock 6 5 6.32 4.68 -0.32 23.7 285 255 0.53 1 A D-1 Eastern Northern Neck  8  4   37.6 2
16 Craig County 4 7 4.27 6.73 -0.27 6.4 294 348 0.46 1 A D-1 Eastern Pioneer  2  8   -1.9 -2
17 Auburn 0 10 0.24 9.76 -0.24 -5.9 104 411 0.20 1 A D-1 Western Three Rivers  7  5   28.0 7
18 George Wythe(W) * 14 1 14.22 0.78 -0.22 59.4 503 172 0.75 1 A D-1 Western Hogoheegee  6  5   27.0 -8
19 J.I. Burton 9 4 9.16 3.84 -0.16 35.6 399 289 0.58 1 A D-1 Western Lonesome Pine  8  5   27.7 -1
20 Bland(RG) 0 10 0.05 9.95 -0.05 -8.9 62 447 0.12 1 A D-1 Western Mtn. Empire  0  10   -11.2 0
21 Altavista 10 3 10.04 2.96 -0.04 45.7 473 301 0.61 1 A D-1 Eastern Dogwood  14  1   68.2 4
22 Northampton 0 10 0.01 9.99 -0.01 -4.5 34 537 0.06 1 A D-1 Eastern Eastern Shore-A  0  10   -16.9 0
23 Castlewood 6 5 5.99 5.01 0.01 10.5 251 235 0.52 1 A D-1 Western Cumberland  1  9   -13.0 -5
24 Lancaster 5 6 4.96 6.04 0.04 24.0 400 430 0.48 1 A D-1 Eastern Northern Neck  4  7   14.5 -1
25 Hurley 6 5 5.86 5.14 0.14 2.9 294 280 0.51 1 A D-1 Western Black Diamond  4  6   -1.6 -2
26 Colonial Beach 7 5 6.86 5.14 0.14 35.9 327 294 0.53 1 A D-1 Eastern Northern Neck  5  6   27.7 -2
27 Northumberland 1 9 0.76 9.24 0.24 1.2 178 448 0.28 1 A D-1 Eastern Northern Neck  3  8   9.8 2
28 Cumberland 1 9 0.64 9.36 0.36 3.6 146 394 0.27 1 A D-1 Eastern James River  2  9   13.6 1
29 Narrows 1 9 0.57 9.43 0.43 2.6 150 423 0.26 1 A D-1 Western Mtn. Empire  3  7   9.9 2
30 Charles City 5 6 4.40 6.60 0.60 22.9 258 300 0.46 1 A D-1 Eastern Tri-Rivers  1  9   -1.9 -4
31 William Campbell 4 8 3.37 8.63 0.63 33.2 281 398 0.41 1 A D-1 Eastern Dogwood  1  10   19.5 -3
32 Mathews 1 9 0.31 9.69 0.69 -4.0 117 418 0.22 1 A D-1 Eastern Tidewater  2  8   3.0 1
33 Eastern Montgomery 4 7 3.27 7.73 0.73 13.6 314 432 0.42 1 A D-1 Western Three Rivers  1  9   0.7 -3
34 Bath County 3 8 2.15 8.85 0.85 11.8 154 260 0.37 1 A D-1 Eastern Pioneer  5  6   19.2 2
35 Chilhowie 4 7 3.13 7.87 0.87 22.2 246 346 0.42 1 A D-1 Western Hogoheegee  7  4   27.5 3
36 King & Queen 1 9 0.12 9.88 0.88 2.0 67 346 0.16 1 A D-1 Eastern Tidewater  0  10   -11.6 -1
37 Surry 3 8 2.02 8.98 0.98 16.0 210 365 0.37 1 A D-1 Eastern Tri-Rivers  6  4   33.5 3
38 Middlesex 4 7 2.94 8.06 1.06 14.7 283 411 0.41 1 A D-1 Eastern Tidewater  7  4   22.9 3
39 Parry McCluer 7 5 5.78 6.22 1.22 29.7 255 262 0.49 1 A D-1 Eastern Pioneer  8  4   44.0 1
40 Rye Cove 2 8 0.69 9.31 1.31 -19.5 143 374 0.28 1 A D-1 Western Cumberland  2  8   -5.1 0
41 Twin Springs 2 8 0.35 9.65 1.65 -5.1 112 381 0.23 1 A D-1 Western Cumberland  4  6   4.6 2
42 Patrick Henry(GS) 2 9 0.35 10.65 1.65 6.2 123 436 0.22 1 A D-1 Western Hogoheegee  3  7   5.0 1