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1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2012 Division 2 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W		 ACT
L		 Proj
W		 Proj
L		 ACT
vs
Proj
Diff		 State
Rating		 PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W		 YR+1
L		 YR+1
Rate
YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 Manassas Park 8 4 10.46 1.54 -2.46 41.7 478 235 0.67 2 A D-2 Eastern Bull Run  2  8   14.1 -6
2 Buckingham County 9 3 11.32 0.68 -2.32 45.4 487 172 0.74 2 A D-2 Eastern James River  10  4   60.4 1
3 Chatham 3 7 5.28 4.72 -2.28 19.2 273 262 0.51 2 A D-2 Western Dogwood  6  4   38.5 3
4 Appomattox 4 6 6.23 3.77 -2.23 21.7 259 215 0.55 2 A D-2 Western Dogwood  7  5   51.4 3
5 Clarke County 6 5 7.89 3.11 -1.89 30.7 309 219 0.59 2 A D-2 Eastern Bull Run  12  1   61.9 6
6 Riverheads 10 2 11.70 0.30 -1.70 53.4 523 134 0.80 2 A D-2 Western Shenandoah  12  2   61.4 2
7 Stuarts Draft 8 5 9.33 3.67 -1.33 46.2 383 271 0.59 2 A D-2 Western Shenandoah  7  4   46.4 -1
8 Virginia 7 4 8.04 2.96 -1.04 40.5 249 172 0.59 2 A D-2 Western Clinch Mountain A  6  6   37.6 -1
9 East Rockingham 8 4 8.97 3.03 -0.97 44.1 368 246 0.60 2 A D-2 Eastern Shenandoah  7  4   46.4 -1
10 King William 11 2 11.79 1.21 -0.79 51.1 551 237 0.70 2 A D-2 Eastern Tidewater  8  3   41.7 -3
11 Wilson Memorial 12 2 12.77 1.23 -0.77 61.4 438 184 0.70 2 A D-2 Western Shenandoah  10  2   62.0 -2
12 Union 8 4 8.73 3.27 -0.73 44.0 367 255 0.59 2 A D-2 Western Lonesome Pine  9  3   59.6 1
13 Nandua 8 3 8.70 2.30 -0.70 28.3 316 193 0.62 2 A D-2 Eastern Eastern Shore-A  6  5   15.5 -2
14 Nottoway 5 6 5.70 5.30 -0.70 30.0 264 257 0.51 2 A D-2 Eastern James River  6  6   45.0 1
15 Goochland * 13 2 13.69 1.31 -0.69 64.8 558 234 0.70 2 A D-2 Eastern James River  10  3   61.2 -3
16 John Battle 12 2 12.68 1.32 -0.68 53.7 397 172 0.70 2 A D-2 Western Clinch Mountain A  6  5   38.4 -6
17 Giles 10 2 10.47 1.53 -0.47 49.1 505 248 0.67 2 A D-2 Western Three Rivers  15  0   71.9 5
18 Essex 14 1 14.45 0.55 -0.45 62.4 669 199 0.77 2 A D-2 Eastern Northern Neck  13  2   62.2 -1
19 Fort Chiswell 11 2 11.39 1.61 -0.39 53.7 458 222 0.67 2 A D-2 Western Mtn. Empire  12  2   53.3 1
20 Page 0 10 0.32 9.68 -0.32 4.4 96 339 0.22 2 A D-2 Eastern Shenandoah  2  8   19.4 2
21 Randolph-Henry 0 10 0.16 9.84 -0.16 -1.8 95 442 0.18 2 A D-2 Eastern James River  5  5   39.3 5
22 Madison County 5 6 5.10 5.90 -0.10 24.7 232 245 0.49 2 A D-2 Eastern Bull Run  3  8   22.0 -2
23 Graham 7 4 7.07 3.93 -0.07 36.9 302 243 0.55 2 A D-2 Western Mtn. Empire  6  5   35.4 -1
24 George Mason 1 9 1.06 8.94 -0.06 5.1 168 370 0.31 2 A D-2 Eastern Bull Run  6  5   36.4 5
25 James River(B) 7 4 6.98 4.02 0.02 37.3 341 278 0.55 2 A D-2 Western Pioneer  5  6   44.0 -2
26 Grayson County 9 3 8.98 3.02 0.02 45.8 428 286 0.60 2 A D-2 Western Mtn. Empire  5  6   32.0 -4
27 William Monroe 1 9 0.89 9.11 0.11 6.3 234 554 0.30 2 A D-2 Eastern Bull Run  3  8   22.6 2
28 Lee 1 9 0.85 9.15 0.15 4.3 142 342 0.29 2 A D-2 Western Clinch Mountain A  5  6   31.4 4
29 Strasburg 10 2 9.82 2.18 0.18 46.8 423 242 0.64 2 A D-2 Eastern Bull Run  3  7   20.7 -7
30 Dan River 9 2 8.78 2.22 0.22 53.3 361 217 0.62 2 A D-2 Western Dogwood  9  3   59.2 0
31 Washington & Lee 5 6 4.77 6.23 0.23 35.5 164 181 0.48 2 A D-2 Eastern Northern Neck  7  5   37.6 2
32 Glenvar 5 6 4.61 6.39 0.39 26.5 358 404 0.47 2 A D-2 Western Three Rivers  5  6   36.3 0
33 Stonewall Jackson(Q) 2 8 1.49 8.51 0.51 17.8 160 305 0.34 2 A D-2 Eastern Shenandoah  1  9   19.4 -1
34 Wise Central 3 7 2.40 7.60 0.60 18.4 190 291 0.40 2 A D-2 Western Lonesome Pine  1  9   5.3 -2
35 Central(W) 10 3 9.39 3.61 0.61 49.8 399 280 0.59 2 A D-2 Eastern Bull Run  10  3   59.6 0
36 Amelia County 4 7 3.36 7.64 0.64 24.9 251 340 0.42 2 A D-2 Eastern James River  5  6   36.4 1
37 Floyd County 7 4 6.22 4.78 0.78 41.9 388 352 0.52 2 A D-2 Western Three Rivers  2  8   11.2 -5
38 Bluestone 3 7 2.12 7.88 0.88 13.7 201 327 0.38 2 A D-2 Eastern James River  3  7   23.3 0
39 Lebanon 3 7 2.07 7.93 0.93 18.1 138 227 0.38 2 A D-2 Western Clinch Mountain A  5  4   37.6 2
40 Gretna 7 4 5.99 5.01 1.01 45.6 310 290 0.52 2 A D-2 Western Dogwood  7  4   54.0 0
41 Luray 3 8 1.91 9.09 1.09 22.0 162 289 0.36 2 A D-2 Eastern Shenandoah  5  6   33.6 2
42 Gate City 2 8 0.84 9.16 1.16 24.1 170 412 0.29 2 A D-2 Western Clinch Mountain A  8  5   57.9 6
43 Nelson County 2 8 0.81 9.19 1.19 10.2 188 462 0.29 2 A D-2 Western Dogwood  0  10   10.9 -2
44 Windsor 3 8 1.73 9.27 1.27 17.0 202 376 0.35 2 A D-2 Eastern Tri-Rivers  1  9   2.9 -2
45 Buffalo Gap 3 7 1.08 8.92 1.92 21.5 137 299 0.31 2 A D-2 Western Shenandoah  2  8   19.4 -1
46 Arcadia 3 7 0.98 9.02 2.02 8.3 140 319 0.31 2 A D-2 Eastern Eastern Shore-A  6  5   19.5 3
47 Grundy 4 7 1.78 9.22 2.22 7.9 201 370 0.35 2 A D-2 Western Black Diamond  3  7   12.4 -1