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1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2012 Division 4 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W		 ACT
L		 Proj
W		 Proj
L		 ACT
vs
Proj
Diff		 State
Rating		 PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W		 YR+1
L		 YR+1
Rate
YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 Grafton 4 7 6.58 4.42 -2.58 43.0 249 215 0.54 4 AA I Bay Rivers  3  7   43.2 -1
2 Chancellor 8 3 10.28 0.72 -2.28 74.8 313 117 0.73 4 AA I Battlefield  1  9   35.3 -7
3 King George 9 3 11.01 0.99 -2.01 69.0 361 148 0.71 4 AA I Battlefield  8  3   65.5 -1
4 Woodgrove 7 4 8.89 2.11 -1.89 63.2 392 230 0.63 4 AA II Dulles  9  4   75.0 2
5 Pulaski County 6 6 7.83 4.17 -1.83 59.4 250 198 0.56 4 AA IV River Ridge  4  7   46.6 -2
6 Loudoun County 10 3 11.79 1.21 -1.79 78.1 418 180 0.70 4 AA II Dulles  5  6   56.4 -5
7 Sherando 6 5 7.64 3.36 -1.64 67.1 259 191 0.58 4 AA II Northwestern  13  2   82.3 7
8 Amherst County 9 3 10.61 1.39 -1.61 88.6 359 169 0.68 4 AA III Seminole  3  8   46.1 -6
9 William Byrd 5 7 6.38 5.62 -1.38 61.0 281 268 0.51 4 AA III Blue Ridge  9  3   76.1 4
10 Broadway 4 6 5.37 4.63 -1.37 36.9 259 245 0.51 4 AA III Valley  3  7   25.7 -1
11 Courtland 9 5 10.24 3.76 -1.24 75.0 303 209 0.59 4 AA I Battlefield  10  3   75.6 1
12 Magna Vista 7 4 8.05 2.95 -1.05 51.0 322 222 0.59 4 AA IV Piedmont  11  2   76.1 4
13 Millbrook 6 5 7.02 3.98 -1.02 55.2 333 270 0.55 4 AA II Northwestern  2  8   26.0 -4
14 Christiansburg 8 5 8.95 4.05 -0.95 56.3 365 272 0.57 4 AA IV River Ridge  7  4   66.1 -1
15 Smithfield 10 2 10.89 1.11 -0.89 71.8 303 130 0.70 4 AA I Bay Rivers  4  6   46.0 -6
16 Louisa 4 6 4.87 5.13 -0.87 47.0 252 257 0.50 4 AA II Jefferson  3  7   40.7 -1
17 Tabb 4 6 4.45 5.55 -0.45 46.7 221 240 0.48 4 AA I Bay Rivers  7  4   63.8 3
18 Heritage(Lyn) 12 2 12.44 1.56 -0.44 89.0 412 191 0.68 4 AA III Seminole  13  1   78.5 1
19 Carroll County 2 8 2.36 7.64 -0.36 13.8 213 329 0.39 4 AA IV Southwest  2  7   31.3 0
20 Jamestown 4 6 4.22 5.78 -0.22 47.1 193 217 0.47 4 AA I Bay Rivers  4  7   45.5 0
21 Harrisonburg 5 5 5.18 4.82 -0.18 48.0 229 223 0.51 4 AA III Valley  2  8   25.7 -3
22 Hidden Valley 6 5 6.13 4.87 -0.13 61.0 196 180 0.52 4 AA IV River Ridge  7  6   65.1 1
23 Park View(St) 0 10 0.04 9.96 -0.04 28.6 45 337 0.12 4 AA II Dulles  2  8   37.9 2
24 Tuscarora 10 2 10.01 1.99 -0.01 77.3 366 201 0.65 4 AA II Dulles  9  3   81.1 -1
25 Bassett 4 7 3.98 7.02 0.02 37.8 253 312 0.45 4 AA IV Piedmont  3  7   27.3 -1
26 Briar Woods * 15 0 14.90 0.10 0.10 99.0 627 98 0.86 4 AA II Dulles  13  2   99.3 -2
27 Liberty(Beal) 7 5 6.83 5.17 0.17 67.1 255 230 0.53 4 AA II Evergreen  7  5   64.1 0
28 James Wood 1 9 0.50 9.50 0.50 30.6 130 386 0.25 4 AA II Northwestern  1  9   16.1 0
29 Blacksburg 2 8 1.36 8.64 0.64 39.1 113 224 0.34 4 AA IV River Ridge  4  6   44.7 2
30 Turner Ashby 4 6 3.36 6.64 0.64 47.6 240 309 0.44 4 AA III Valley  3  7   29.2 -1
31 Powhatan 5 6 4.32 6.68 0.68 51.6 229 269 0.46 4 AA II Jefferson  6  5   59.0 1
32 Staunton River 4 6 3.10 6.90 0.90 47.3 215 289 0.43 4 AA III Blue Ridge  2  8   31.0 -2
33 Salem 12 1 10.98 2.02 1.02 87.4 322 172 0.65 4 AA IV River Ridge  11  3   76.1 -1
34 Spotsylvania 2 8 0.84 9.16 1.16 34.7 127 308 0.29 4 AA I Battlefield  3  8   36.3 1
35 E.C. Glass 4 7 2.52 8.48 1.48 60.0 199 312 0.39 4 AA III Seminole  4  7   39.3 0
36 Dominion 3 7 1.40 8.60 1.60 38.6 149 292 0.34 4 AA II Dulles  7  5   66.0 4
37 Caroline 3 7 1.34 8.66 1.66 46.7 204 407 0.33 4 AA I Battlefield  4  7   49.9 1
38 Lord Botetourt 6 5 4.02 6.98 1.98 61.0 172 211 0.45 4 AA III Blue Ridge  10  2   74.0 4
39 Eastern View 4 6 1.99 8.01 2.01 52.1 145 243 0.37 4 AA I Battlefield  10  2   63.1 6
40 Jefferson Forest 6 6 3.79 8.21 2.21 65.6 341 454 0.43 4 AA III Seminole  4  6   38.8 -2
41 Warhill 6 5 3.76 7.24 2.24 56.8 215 274 0.44 4 AA I Bay Rivers  2  8   33.2 -4