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1999-19 Team Seasons

VHSL Football - 2012 Division 5 Pythagorean Expectations

A Pythagorean (expectation) projection is an approximation of each team’s wins based solely on points scored and allowed. The concept was first used by Bill James, an influential baseball writer and statistician, who found that a team’s record was very closely correlated by taking the square of the team’s runs scored and dividing it by the square of the team’s runs plus the square of the team’s runs allowed.

Statistician Daryl Morey of STATS, Inc., later adapted this formula for professional football using 2.37 and I further found that the exponent 2.7 works better for VHSL football.
I applied this formula to each team and found out which teams are out performing their projected winning percentage and which ones were under performing.

The key is as follows: W = Actual wins L = Actual losses  PFALL = Points for  PAALL = Points against  Projected W = Projected Wins  Projected L = Projected Losses  
Win Difference is computed by calculating the number of wins the formula computed (Projected W) and subtracting that from the number of actual wins (Actual W).
A positive number means the team had more wins that the formula expected, a negative numbers means less wins than expected.

# Team ACT
W
ACT
L
Proj
W
Proj
L
ACT
vs
Proj
Diff
State
Rating
PF PA %PTS Div Group Region District YR+1
W
YR+1
L
YR+1
Rate

YR+1
W/L
CHG
1 Hanover 9 4 11.79 1.21 -2.79 81.4 456 196 0.70 5 AAA Central Capital  6  6   65.7 -3
2 Hampton 9 3 11.69 0.31 -2.69 82.4 429 112 0.79 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  7  5   74.5 -2
3 South County 6 6 8.27 3.73 -2.27 80.5 454 338 0.57 5 AAA Northern Patriot  9  3   91.3 3
4 Potomac 7 4 9.20 1.80 -2.20 82.1 256 140 0.65 5 AAA Northwest Cardinal  4  7   65.3 -3
5 Hayfield 7 4 9.17 1.83 -2.17 67.4 351 193 0.65 5 AAA Northern National  5  6   73.9 -2
6 Mountain View 8 5 10.02 2.98 -2.02 83.5 440 281 0.61 5 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  8  4   87.7 0
7 GW-Danville 8 3 9.86 1.14 -1.86 73.9 276 124 0.69 5 AAA Northwest Western Valley  10  2   62.4 2
8 Langley 7 5 8.56 3.44 -1.56 75.7 307 219 0.58 5 AAA Northern Liberty  9  3   86.5 2
9 Dinwiddie 7 4 8.45 2.55 -1.45 68.6 365 234 0.61 5 AAA Central Central  15  0   101.0 8
10 Patrick Henry(A) 3 7 4.45 5.55 -1.45 53.6 260 282 0.48 5 AAA Central Colonial  2  8   39.9 -1
11 Thomas Jefferson(A) 6 5 7.42 3.58 -1.42 60.4 249 190 0.57 5 AAA Northern Liberty  4  7   55.4 -2
12 Massaponax 7 4 8.26 2.74 -1.26 82.4 325 216 0.60 5 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  12  1   99.9 5
13 Heritage(NN) 6 5 7.13 3.87 -1.13 67.5 286 228 0.56 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  12  2   92.7 6
14 Broad Run 5 5 6.08 3.92 -1.08 69.5 253 215 0.54 5 AAA Northwest Cedar Run  9  4   88.5 4
15 Woodrow Wilson 0 10 1.05 8.95 -1.05 35.4 144 318 0.31 5 AAA Eastern Eastern  0  10   38.4 0
16 North Stafford 11 2 12.02 0.98 -1.02 93.8 440 174 0.72 5 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  11  3   98.0 0
17 Mount Vernon 4 6 4.91 5.09 -0.91 45.4 219 222 0.50 5 AAA Northern National  3  8   54.0 -1
18 Kings Fork 7 4 7.78 3.22 -0.78 83.7 302 218 0.58 5 AAA Eastern Southeastern  9  4   82.0 2
19 Lakeland 8 4 8.64 3.36 -0.64 89.0 312 220 0.59 5 AAA Eastern Southeastern  1  9   44.3 -7
20 Atlee 5 5 5.55 4.45 -0.55 68.2 433 399 0.52 5 AAA Central Capital  11  2   91.1 6
21 Albemarle 1 9 1.40 8.60 -0.40 50.7 159 311 0.34 5 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  6  5   61.0 5
22 Great Bridge 0 10 0.38 9.62 -0.38 46.7 126 417 0.23 5 AAA Eastern Southeastern  5  6   65.1 5
23 Stone Bridge 14 1 14.26 0.74 -0.26 102.0 624 209 0.75 5 AAA Northern Liberty  9  3   88.5 -5
24 Colonial Heights 0 10 0.25 9.75 -0.25 19.5 86 333 0.21 5 AAA Central Central  0  10   22.2 0
25 Midlothian 6 4 6.24 3.76 -0.24 62.1 251 208 0.55 5 AAA Central Dominion  2  8   40.9 -4
26 Brooke Point 6 6 6.23 5.77 -0.23 83.5 290 282 0.51 5 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  2  8   62.2 -4
27 George Marshall 0 10 0.18 9.82 -0.18 29.6 103 455 0.18 5 AAA Northern Liberty  0  10   26.6 0
28 Hopewell 8 4 8.18 3.82 -0.18 70.3 330 249 0.57 5 AAA Central Central  6  6   58.8 -2
29 Nansemond River 5 5 5.17 4.83 -0.17 72.4 203 198 0.51 5 AAA Eastern Southeastern  4  7   61.9 -1
30 Phoebus 12 1 12.15 0.85 -0.15 93.6 476 178 0.73 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  10  2   94.5 -2
31 Wakefield 0 10 0.05 9.95 -0.05 20.0 71 497 0.13 5 AAA Northern National  3  7   38.9 3
32 George Wythe(R) 0 10 0.01 9.99 -0.01 21.3 38 469 0.07 5 AAA Central Dominion  0  10   27.8 0
33 Yorktown 12 1 12.00 1.00 0.00 83.8 522 208 0.72 5 AAA Northern National  9  3   84.5 -3
34 Falls Church 3 7 2.87 7.13 0.13 36.1 227 318 0.42 5 AAA Northern National  8  4   73.1 5
35 Thomas Edison 5 6 4.86 6.14 0.14 55.1 308 336 0.48 5 AAA Northern National  3  8   49.4 -2
36 Halifax County 3 7 2.81 7.19 0.19 38.8 202 286 0.41 5 AAA Northwest Western Valley  1  9   15.3 -2
37 Norcom 6 5 5.80 5.20 0.20 73.1 202 194 0.51 5 AAA Eastern Eastern  8  3   75.2 2
38 Lake Taylor * 15 0 14.73 0.27 0.27 107.1 653 148 0.82 5 AAA Eastern Eastern  10  3   88.0 -5
39 Lee-Davis 7 4 6.53 4.47 0.47 81.4 283 246 0.53 5 AAA Central Capital  5  5   67.2 -2
40 Denbigh 2 8 1.50 8.50 0.50 48.7 148 281 0.34 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  8  4   79.7 6
41 Glen Allen 2 8 1.47 8.53 0.53 50.4 177 339 0.34 5 AAA Central Capital  4  7   58.2 2
42 Freedom(R) 3 7 2.46 7.54 0.54 38.5 231 350 0.40 5 AAA Northwest Cedar Run  1  9   33.4 -2
43 William Fleming 1 9 0.41 9.59 0.59 39.0 81 261 0.24 5 AAA Northwest Western Valley  3  7   37.6 2
44 Green Run 2 8 1.40 8.60 0.60 53.5 128 251 0.34 5 AAA Eastern Beach  9  4   86.2 7
45 Warwick 4 6 3.38 6.62 0.62 52.8 202 259 0.44 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  0  10   39.6 -4
46 Thomas Jefferson(R) 1 9 0.35 9.65 0.65 29.4 96 329 0.23 5 AAA Central Colonial  3  8   35.4 2
47 J.R. Tucker 2 8 1.31 8.69 0.69 46.7 183 369 0.33 5 AAA Central Colonial  4  6   47.6 2
48 Huguenot 1 9 0.29 9.71 0.71 27.4 84 310 0.21 5 AAA Central Dominion  1  9   31.5 0
49 Armstrong 2 8 1.12 8.88 0.88 41.8 174 375 0.32 5 AAA Central Capital  3  8   35.4 1
50 Maury 5 6 4.10 6.90 0.90 71.1 283 343 0.45 5 AAA Eastern Eastern  8  4   75.6 3
51 Freedom 1 9 0.08 9.92 0.92 43.4 62 372 0.14 5 AAA Northwest Cardinal  4  7   62.5 3
52 Deep Creek 1 9 0.07 9.93 0.93 51.5 71 434 0.14 5 AAA Eastern Southeastern  2  8   50.5 1
53 Orange 1 9 0.05 9.95 0.95 44.6 64 443 0.13 5 AAA Northwest Commonwealth  2  8   36.9 1
54 J.E.B. Stuart 2 8 0.77 9.23 1.23 26.7 137 344 0.28 5 AAA Northern National  2  8   44.3 0
55 Petersburg 3 7 1.74 8.26 1.26 40.1 140 249 0.36 5 AAA Central Central  3  8   46.7 0
56 John Marshall 6 4 4.67 5.33 1.33 60.4 177 186 0.49 5 AAA Central Colonial  0  10   19.9 -6
57 James Madison 8 3 6.53 4.47 1.47 80.5 260 226 0.53 5 AAA Northern Liberty  1  9   44.0 -7
58 Booker T. Washington 3 7 1.52 8.48 1.48 52.8 145 274 0.35 5 AAA Eastern Eastern  2  7   45.3 -1
59 McLean 4 6 2.48 7.52 1.52 57.3 136 205 0.40 5 AAA Northern Liberty  5  5   65.7 1
60 Monacan 4 6 2.42 7.58 1.58 49.4 131 200 0.40 5 AAA Central Dominion  5  6   61.0 1
61 Kempsville 2 8 0.30 9.70 1.70 53.7 83 299 0.22 5 AAA Eastern Beach  2  9   55.4 0
62 Churchland 3 7 1.21 8.79 1.79 56.2 143 298 0.32 5 AAA Eastern Eastern  8  3   65.6 5
63 Indian River 3 7 0.90 9.10 2.10 66.8 137 323 0.30 5 AAA Eastern Southeastern  1  9   44.8 -2
64 R.E. Lee(S) 3 7 0.83 9.17 2.17 55.1 126 306 0.29 5 AAA Northern Patriot  2  9   53.7 -1
65 Menchville 3 7 0.48 9.52 2.52 48.2 97 293 0.25 5 AAA Eastern Peninsula  1  9   45.8 -2